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*****Road Worlds (spoilers)
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Ok kids, 5th and last post of ‘18 for the bike racing geeks.

TTT up first Sunday. Discuss.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Tough to beat BMC with Küng, TvG and Dennis. The last 400m is a 9% grade and that’ll be interesting to see how teams sprint it out. Top three:
BMC
Sunweb
Quickstep
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [mike s] [ In reply to ]
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mike s wrote:
Tough to beat BMC with Küng, TvG and Dennis. The last 400m is a 9% grade and that’ll be interesting to see how teams sprint it out. Top three:
BMC
Sunweb
Quickstep


I think the Panzerwagen and Dowsett shovel some coal into the furnace at Katusha.

Katusha
BMC
Sky
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Sunweb
BMC
Katoosh
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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QS has real firepower too.
QS, Sunweb, BMC
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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I can't see anyone beating BMC this year.

BMC
Quickstep
Sunweb
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [mike s] [ In reply to ]
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mike s wrote:
Tough to beat BMC with Küng, TvG and Dennis. The last 400m is a 9% grade and that’ll be interesting to see how teams sprint it out. Top three:
BMC
Sunweb
Quickstep

In 2012, they went up the Cauberg. TJ pushed way too high a pace and one rider was dropped. That probably cost them a few seconds. Hopefully they are wiser this gime around
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
mike s wrote:
Tough to beat BMC with Küng, TvG and Dennis. The last 400m is a 9% grade and that’ll be interesting to see how teams sprint it out. Top three:
BMC
Sunweb
Quickstep


In 2012, they went up the Cauberg. TJ pushed way too high a pace and one rider was dropped. That probably cost them a few seconds. Hopefully they are wiser this gime around

that finish is why i went with Sunweb
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [mike s] [ In reply to ]
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mike s wrote:
Tough to beat BMC with Küng, TvG and Dennis. The last 400m is a 9% grade and that’ll be interesting to see how teams sprint it out. Top three:
BMC
Sunweb
Quickstep

this would be my choices also - throw Lotto-J in as wildcard
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, TD, Kelderman and Anderson easily match BMC’s trio, and Matthews is an exception TTTer. I’m changing pick to:
Sunweb
QS
BMC
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Never was really interested in the TTT from a prediction perspective. The course for the men does look to have some action in there. There's even a short and very steep descent that may create some pucker factor riding together on TT bikes.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Porte out of road race, but not sure he was ever a contender.

Reading up on the road course it could favor anyone from GT climber to Ardennes specialist. Gotta think the latter will be better suited for distance, positioning and shorter but super steep ramps. Hard to look past Alaphilippe, Valverde and even Gilbert given his experience. Also looks like Sagan and GvA could have a chance if they have great day.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
Porte out of road race, but not sure he was ever a contender.

Reading up on the road course it could favor anyone from GT climber to Ardennes specialist. Gotta think the latter will be better suited for distance, positioning and shorter but super steep ramps. Hard to look past Alaphilippe, Valverde and even Gilbert given his experience. Also looks like Sagan and GvA could have a chance if they have great day.
that last hill is just a bit too long/steep for the Gilbert types

people who have done well recently at San Sebastian should do well, for it also features a brutishly steep (albeit shorter) climb that tops out with about 8 km to go
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
Never was really interested in the TTT from a prediction perspective. The course for the men does look to have some action in there. There's even a short and very steep descent that may create some pucker factor riding together on TT bikes.


I'm excited about next year's TTT, with the 6 person men's-women's combined national team format. Should be really good for the U.S. I can imagine like Quintana / Taylor Phinney / Rosskopf (McNulty?) as the men's team with, say, Wiles/Stephens/Dygert. That would be hard to beat. The Dutch might be the favorite with Dumoulin/Kelderman, and the Dutch women being a juggernaut with Vleuten/Breggen/Dijk (skipping all the 'vans' and 'ders')

But I'm getting a year ahead of this thread. Sorry.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Alaphilippe is my pick. He's got the whole package for this course and is on form.

Kevin

http://kevinmetcalfe.dreamhosters.com
My Strava
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [nslckevin] [ In reply to ]
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My guess is it’s between him, Kwiatkowski and Valverde.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [nslckevin] [ In reply to ]
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nslckevin wrote:
Alaphilippe is my pick. He's got the whole package for this course and is on form.

Yeah, all that plus a great team (assuming Guimard can get them to work together). Bardet and Pinot are legitimate contenders themselves, Rolland is quite a climber when he's in form, and Gallopin is a good candidate to either go in the break or bring it back.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
My guess is it’s between him, Kwiatkowski and Valverde.


How fried do you think Kwiatkowski's and Valeverde's legs will be after the TdF + Vuelta double. It seems Alaphillippe should have had more non racing days?
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Sep 23, 18 5:26
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
Jason N wrote:
Never was really interested in the TTT from a prediction perspective. The course for the men does look to have some action in there. There's even a short and very steep descent that may create some pucker factor riding together on TT bikes.


I'm excited about next year's TTT, with the 6 person men's-women's combined national team format. Should be really good for the U.S. I can imagine like Quintana / Taylor Phinney / Rosskopf (McNulty?) as the men's team with, say, Wiles/Stephens/Dygert. That would be hard to beat. The Dutch might be the favorite with Dumoulin/Kelderman, and the Dutch women being a juggernaut with Vleuten/Breggen/Dijk (skipping all the 'vans' and 'ders')

But I'm getting a year ahead of this thread. Sorry.

The coed ttt should be cool. How to keep the group together, who drops when...pretty intruiging....

I think Rolland is a good dark horse, Woods, too. A Yates ( maybe both) will hang on the final 20+ percenter on Holl. I think someone gaps at the top but gets caught then a small, maybe 4 man group goes to the line.
I keep thinking Roglic factors, but what’s he been up to lately? And Sagan will be compelling, maybe a dramatic attack, but fall short. Would love to see him survive and have a legit shot on the descent before the line. Dan Martin? Tough as nails and can hang on too. He’s a guy that should sport the rainbow jersey.
Larry Warbasse signed with Ag2r. That’s cool.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Carl Spackler wrote:
My guess is it’s between him, Kwiatkowski and Valverde.


How fried do you this Kwiatkowski's and Valeverde's legs will be after the TdF + Vuelta double. It seems Alaphillippe should have had more non racing days?

This will be interesting. Kwiatkowski and Valverde are very similar, both can climb well and have very good sprints. A rider like Aalphillippe does not want to bring either of these riders to the line (he can sprint reasonably well but not against valverde). This in some ways will neutralize the pure climbers, they don't want to drag these guys to the line. This furthermore plays into GVA/Sagan only game plan, a controlled tempo to the final climb. If its all together at the last lap i think GVA/sagan has a very good chance if they are having a great day. This is such a hard day a lot of people will be neutralized due to the distance and difficulty.

I think Roglic is a serious contender. In fact i think he is a top 5 contender. We need to petition to have Van Der Poel race worlds as well.

http://riseabovecyclingpodcast.podbean.com/
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Alaphilippe, Yates (i'll pick which later), Valverde
Kwiatkowski and Roglic

Roglic is really good at the sharp stuff. Wouldn't count out Dumoulin either
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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For the TTT:
Quick Step
Sunweb
BMC

Katusha and Lotto NL Jumbo as dark horses.

I think that final hill of the road race is abit too brutal for the gilbert types. Alaphillipe and kwiatkowski are contenders for sure but I think it's a coin toss as to whether Sagan makes that final selection.

I think Roglic will be a factor but I'm hesitant- he' s not shown much in a brutally long one day race so far in his career.

Anyone know if Nibali is racing? I think he will be a dark horse. This sort of course- brutally long, lots of climbing, potentially tough conditions- is his sort of thing. Reminds me very much of the 2013 roads course where he made the final group. Plus he won Milan San Remo this year which is kinda similar to this route.
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [davidalone] [ In reply to ]
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davidalone wrote:
For the TTT:
Quick Step
Sunweb
BMC

Katusha and Lotto NL Jumbo as dark horses.

I think that final hill of the road race is abit too brutal for the gilbert types. Alaphillipe and kwiatkowski are contenders for sure but I think it's a coin toss as to whether Sagan makes that final selection.

I think Roglic will be a factor but I'm hesitant- he' s not shown much in a brutally long one day race so far in his career.

Anyone know if Nibali is racing? I think he will be a dark horse. This sort of course- brutally long, lots of climbing, potentially tough conditions- is his sort of thing. Reminds me very much of the 2013 roads course where he made the final group. Plus he won Milan San Remo this year which is kinda similar to this route.

not to mention the Rio Olympics
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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Hey guys, just looking at the course profile for the TTT on cyclingnews...is the climb the same as what they use in the road race? And why does the women's race not use the same climb?
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Re: *****Road Worlds (spoilers) [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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My hesitation with Roglic is lack of classics experience. 200k would be one thing but getting well into bonus rounds tips in flavor of other guys, IMO.
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