kajet wrote:
iron_mike wrote:
some of the trirating predictions seem strange to me on this one, but what do i know?
Interesting - which ones? I hope you're not talking about Lawrence, who beat the crap out of the field and smashed the course record last time this race happened :)
no, their call on the women's draw is reasonable enough. daniela is . . . daniela. paula looked just remarkably in control at daytona, and holly's the course record holder. laura philip is really . . . interesting to me - i think she's due for a big breakthrough and if i were a betting man i might put $5 on her to show. much further down the podium a few choices seem off - naeth in 20th? corbin in 17th?
on the men's side, a few stick out:
-ditlev. strong like bull, but i just haven't seen him execute and dial in pacing, nutrition, strategy, and so on. and an imbalanced run will get punished on this course. fast on paper, i think, but not yet in practice.
-matt hanson. should surely finish better than 10th if he's healthy - especially, again, considering recent form.
-eric lagerstrom: surely should finish better than 31st - guy was 19th at world's in a much more stacked field.
von berg and appleton are question marks for me - will be curious to see how they go. ditto jackson laundry - don't know if this is his kind of course, but i feel like he's due a big race.
it's weird for a northern-hemisphere pro to peak for a 'worlds' type of effort in april. in the old days i might've tipped a guy like bevan docherty to come over at the end of his summer and wring out some late-season speed and sharpness.
finally - my feeling about lionel is partly his fitness, which seems quite good (the hour record, improved swimming, some run PBs). but as much as that it's that his approach is seeming much more measured and rational, he's taking better advice, nailing gear and nutrition, and lately his racing has looked pretty dangerous. he's doing exactly what he needs to win, doing it in pretty economical ways, digging really deep when he has to (and going toe-to-toe with some crazy performances when he does) and that suggests good things coming, to me. that, and he took the course record from brownlee. i mean . . . come on.
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