I did a 16 km solo swim as an early season benchmark. It was done in a sheltered bay with minimal wind (BF 0 - 2), tide (less than 0.1 knots) and current. The air temperature was about 13 - 15°C and sea temperature was about 20 - 21°C. According to previous race results, I estimated my speed to be 2.5 km/h that I would complete it in 6:24. However I ended up completing it in 7:45, more than an hour more than expected. I'm so disappointed and worried now.
The main reason that I did the benchmark swim was because a 21.5 km lake race I signed up August this year in Europe was postponed to next year due to pandemic. I needed a result on a current-neutral course in calm water in order to base my further training on, and to plan my Channel swim next year. My original plan before the pandemic was to do the 21.5 km race in August, then do a 30 km rehearsal swim in winter. Now my plan is to do a 16 km benchmark swim in December (in calm water), and a 25 km rehearsal swim in February (in the open sea).
I based my speed estimation (2.5 km/h) on a number of race results, including the following shorter swims:
Apr 2019: 1:45 for 4.4 km, current neural
Aug 2019: 1:06 for 2.9 km, current neutral
Nov 2019: 1:21 for 3.7 km, current neutral
Nov 2020: 0:58 for 2.7 km, current neutral
and also my following marathon swims:
Jul 2019: 5:43 for 12.5 km, current neutral (my first marathon swim)
Jan 2020: 5:14 for 13.8 km, open current
My plan was to complete it in 6:24, feeding every 48 minutes with 50 g of maltodextrin mixed with 500 mL of water. However by about 7 km I was already feeling my lats and quads extremely fatigued, while I expected fatigue set in at around 2/3 of my swim. I was behind the schedule by about half an hour already halfway of the swim. I normally use 2-beat kick all the time but I couldn't kick properly in the latter half, and dragging my straight legs behind. Also my back was done as well. The following shows how my speed dropped over time:
SP - CP1 (0.8 km): 2.52 km/h
CP1 - CP2 (2.28 km): 2.35 km/h
CP2 - CP3 (3.68 km): 2.03 km/h
CP3 - CP4 (3.89 km): 1.88 km/h
CP4 - CP5 (2.28 km): 1.95 km/h
CP5 - EP (0.8 km): 2.14 km/h
The above does not add up to 16 km because each CP is a short segment around an Island / cape.
I'm so concerned now if I can continue my plan to do a rehearsal swim in February and swim the Channel in September. I can't even keep my speed in a warm and calm water swim. I can no longer see how I can sustain 25 km (my planned length of rehearsal swim) in the open sea with tides and swells in cold water (about 16°C). Moreover, my training isn't going well as well. When the pandemic caused my overseas race to be postponed, I stopped swimming nearly completely because I'm living at a place which is too hot to swim in summer. I restarted training mid-September but I have never returned to the level while I was preparing for my 14 km race last year because I basically started from 0. I got an injury while diving late November which caused me 1.5 weeks out of water, and pools were forced to close again under new sets of anti-COVID measure afterwards so I have never achieved consistency in my speed training. Therefore I judge from my training that I was only ready for 10 - 12 km.
What should I do in terms of training given the above, especially that pools are still closed under anti-COVID measure? Is it still practical for me to go for a rehearsal swim in February and my Channel swim in September?
The main reason that I did the benchmark swim was because a 21.5 km lake race I signed up August this year in Europe was postponed to next year due to pandemic. I needed a result on a current-neutral course in calm water in order to base my further training on, and to plan my Channel swim next year. My original plan before the pandemic was to do the 21.5 km race in August, then do a 30 km rehearsal swim in winter. Now my plan is to do a 16 km benchmark swim in December (in calm water), and a 25 km rehearsal swim in February (in the open sea).
I based my speed estimation (2.5 km/h) on a number of race results, including the following shorter swims:
Apr 2019: 1:45 for 4.4 km, current neural
Aug 2019: 1:06 for 2.9 km, current neutral
Nov 2019: 1:21 for 3.7 km, current neutral
Nov 2020: 0:58 for 2.7 km, current neutral
and also my following marathon swims:
Jul 2019: 5:43 for 12.5 km, current neutral (my first marathon swim)
Jan 2020: 5:14 for 13.8 km, open current
My plan was to complete it in 6:24, feeding every 48 minutes with 50 g of maltodextrin mixed with 500 mL of water. However by about 7 km I was already feeling my lats and quads extremely fatigued, while I expected fatigue set in at around 2/3 of my swim. I was behind the schedule by about half an hour already halfway of the swim. I normally use 2-beat kick all the time but I couldn't kick properly in the latter half, and dragging my straight legs behind. Also my back was done as well. The following shows how my speed dropped over time:
SP - CP1 (0.8 km): 2.52 km/h
CP1 - CP2 (2.28 km): 2.35 km/h
CP2 - CP3 (3.68 km): 2.03 km/h
CP3 - CP4 (3.89 km): 1.88 km/h
CP4 - CP5 (2.28 km): 1.95 km/h
CP5 - EP (0.8 km): 2.14 km/h
The above does not add up to 16 km because each CP is a short segment around an Island / cape.
I'm so concerned now if I can continue my plan to do a rehearsal swim in February and swim the Channel in September. I can't even keep my speed in a warm and calm water swim. I can no longer see how I can sustain 25 km (my planned length of rehearsal swim) in the open sea with tides and swells in cold water (about 16°C). Moreover, my training isn't going well as well. When the pandemic caused my overseas race to be postponed, I stopped swimming nearly completely because I'm living at a place which is too hot to swim in summer. I restarted training mid-September but I have never returned to the level while I was preparing for my 14 km race last year because I basically started from 0. I got an injury while diving late November which caused me 1.5 weeks out of water, and pools were forced to close again under new sets of anti-COVID measure afterwards so I have never achieved consistency in my speed training. Therefore I judge from my training that I was only ready for 10 - 12 km.
What should I do in terms of training given the above, especially that pools are still closed under anti-COVID measure? Is it still practical for me to go for a rehearsal swim in February and my Channel swim in September?