On the women's side, I'm guessing unless Laura Bennett automatically qualifes at Selection race #2, the discretionary pick will go to Haskins.

Men's side will be interesting because I dont see anyone from US getting auto spots.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I wonder what Greg's race schedule has been like recently. I think a lot of the other guys at Hy-Vee were racing pretty regularly - if this was Greg's A race he timed it pretty well. I was definitely hoping that Hunter would catch him, but trying to make up 50 seconds in the last 2.5km wasn't realistic.

It's amazing how a non-drafting race really shows who is good on the bike, and who needs to hang on for dear life. Take for example Jarrod Shoemaker - he had the slowest bike, but ran through half of the field with the best run of the day. He's a guy who really benefits from being in the pack for the bike than showing his true running form at the end of the race.

As for who makes the Olympic team, I'd say Hunter and Greg have the upper hand on guys like Matt Charbot and Jarrod right now. I'm not sure that any Americans will be able to crack the top 9 in a stacked race with the likes of the Brownlee brothers, Gomez, and others.

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IF, the 2nd selection race is early 2012 and supposedly in the US (which is when it's predicted to be), my guess is that it's goign to be a weaker field. I would think out of the top 10 guys now, over half wont show up for that race.

I'd put Kemper, and Shoemaker at the top with the 3rd spot (if given) going to a domestique.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

While I am a big fan and Bennett, MACCA, SQW....showing my age I guess; the reality is Hy-Vee this year has no relevance on the Olympic seeds. no one was there racing except Bennett who can crack the top 10 in London and that is a huge stretch.

Yes, I just typed that.

Macca's run was one of the top one's as I briefed the results. His swim was, well his swim; 25th if I recall correctly and way off the front. He has to get that faster to have any hope of being picked. No use having his bike prowess to support Brad K. if he isn't in the bunch.

The 2012 Hy Vee on the heels of the Olympics will be legend. THAT will be a race!

Rinny might want to think about London! Geezus what a race for her on Ironman legs!

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@rhyspencer

I agree. Watching it I felt more like it was a race for: Ironman athletes who wanted to compete at Olympic distance. For the most part, all of the Olympic distance specialist where missing.

Let's be clear - Greg Bennett is one of the greats of the sport. However, he's lived in a sort of limbo-land for the last few years - excelling at Olympic Distance no drafting races. Nothing wrong with this, but until the 5150 Series builds up a bit of momentum, this is a slightly obscure corner of the sport. Most of the lime-light is taken up by either the ITU circuit and it's style of drafting legal racing, or long distance tri racing, specifically either of the WTC's branded Ironman or 70.3 races. Bennett, as good as he is, to the best of my knowledge has not raced ITU World Cup event for a few years and his forays into longer distance racing, have had mixed results.

Does he have real aspirations for the Olympic Games next year? And if he does, what country will he race for - my understanding is that he now has duel US/Aussie citizenship? He bested, the U.S.'s long time #1 ITU racer, Hunter Kemper yesterday, but in a different format - what does that mean? How would he really fair in an ITU Format race?

His impressive success yesterday creates more questions, than answers.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Does he have real aspirations for the Olympic Games next year? And if he does, what country will he race for - my understanding is that he now has duel US/Aussie citizenship? He bested, the U.S.'s long time #1 ITU racer, Hunter Kemper yesterday, but in a different format - what does that mean? How would he really fair in an ITU Format race?

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My guess is that he has aspirations, but isnt really a serious choice (more or less kinda riding along with Laura's Olympic bid). He's 80th in the ITU olympic games qualification rankings and 90th in the world ITU rankings. In ITU he's an American racer, and he's raced 2 WCS events this year under the US team.

Edit: My guess is that his only chance of making the olympic race is to win an auto bid spot in the 2nd selection race. However, he may not even qualify into the race as he something like 6th best American at the moment.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Do you think there will be even 3 spots for the US? Does this years ITU points count anything towards next year? Seems like the optimal strategy is to get guys to go out and score points for the team while you race as little as possible and snag the qualifying spots. Could turn out badly for all?

If Kemper wins Pan Am games, US will get 3 spots.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

After the London WCS race, the US men basically have no chance of having 3 spots at the next Olympics (the women scored 3 spots due to Gorgenson 2nd place finish in London). We have not have a good showing at either the World Cup or the WCS races this past year. From what I have heard through the grape vine is that the next qualification race will be in San Diego early next year. I am guessing it will be at least a World Cup race to try to get a talented field at the race. I doubt it will be a Continental cup race. There just would not be enough talent. I am not sure if they will get it to be a WCS race, but I hope they do. To make the automatic selection, the same rules will apply as London, you have to be top 9. This could change or my info could be off, but it comes from pretty good resources.

This post is a joke correct?? No offense but it takes 2 mins to search Greg Bennett on ITU's website which would show you he has raced 7 times in the last two years for World Cup events. Now his results haven't been amazing, I would assume from his perspective at least, but saying he hasn't raced isn't even close to true.

As far as your second point, yes he wants to go to the Olympics but for the US. The reason being he wants to suit up next to Laura under the same country. Its also the reason he didn't race for a country last year for ITU. The last time Hunter and Bennett raced together for an ITU race was in Sydney and Bennett lost by approx 1:20 to him. Obviously taking one result and extrapolating from it is silly especially in ITU. So i'm not sure who really has the advantage to make the team in this case.

After the London WCS race, the US men basically have no chance of having 3 spots at the next Olympics (the women scored 3 spots due to Gorgenson 2nd place finish in London).

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US can get 3 spots if they have an athlete win Pan Am games. Just a month ago, we were 1 of the 8 countries that was guranteed 3 spots (Spain just took it back). US is sending Kemper, Charbot (sp) and Mark Fretta (domestique).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

matbe im wrong, but i could swear bennett was in the breakaway at kitzbuehel last year...http://www.universalsports.com/...eries+kitzbuehel+men
quote Fleck]Let's be clear - Greg Bennett is one of the greats of the sport. However, he's lived in a sort of limbo-land for the last few years - excelling at Olympic Distance no drafting races. Nothing wrong with this, but until the 5150 Series builds up a bit of momentum, this is a slightly obscure corner of the sport. Most of the lime-light is taken up by either the ITU circuit and it's style of draftin g legal racing, or long distance tri racing, specifically either of the WTC's branded Ironman or 70.3 races. Bennett, as good as he is, to the best of my knowledge has not raced ITU World Cup event for a few years and his forays into longer distance racing, have had mixed results.

Does he have real aspirations for the Olympic Games next year? And if he does, what country will he race for - my understanding is that he now has duel US/Aussie citizenship? He bested, the U.S.'s long time #1 ITU racer, Hunter Kemper yesterday, but in a different format - what does that mean? How would he really fair in an ITU Format race?

His impressive success yesterday creates more questions, than answers.[/quote]

This post is a joke correct?? No offense but it takes 2 mins to search Greg Bennett on ITU's website which would show you he has raced 7 times in the last two years for World Cup events. Now his results haven't been amazing, I would assume from his perspective at least, but saying he hasn't raced isn't even close to true.

My apologies. I did say, "To the best of my knowledge". Well, clearly I was wrong.Thank you for pointing this out. Most appreciated.

The general direction of my comments other than that are the same - Bennett's success yesterday, creates more questions regarding his Olympic aspirations than answers. He beat the #1 US ITU man, but what does that mean? Since this was not an ITU race, what bearing will this result have on the selection process?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I would honestly say it doesn't matter that much, when these guys are racing 10-15 times a year the difference between winning and losing is an off day and on day. Like I said with regards to his race against Hunter in Sydney, Hunter beat him by a little over a minute but so what. The times are just too close to say anything with out a huge trend of consistency. Sadly I think the decision will come down more to politics then race results.

The only bearing I was implying is related to his devious planning. Based on what I've heard/ read, they are very gung-ho about doing London. I think he's raced enough ITU to keep his feet wet, but I'd bet he was making this his "A" race all year. My thought is now he turns his full attention to qualifying for London, and I'm not willing to bet against him doing it.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Sadly I think the decision will come down more to politics then race results.

Often this is the case. One never knows what is more fair - A straight up, one shot trial race, like they use for Track & Field in the U.S., where you finish in the top 3, or no Olympics for you, some form of long term, point gathering exercise, or turning something over to some committee of "experts" to decide who goes.

The first is often considered too ruthless, and winners and medalists, have almost for sure been left off teams because they did not come up big on the day of the trail race or event. The last is often considered too political, for obvious reasons. The middle, some consider the most democratic, because athletes know that they have to achieve X, over a decent period of time, and are up to their own devices to do this.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Sadly I think the decision will come down more to politics then race results.

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That just kinda tells you where the US athletes are on the international stage (men's race especially).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

As for who makes the Olympic team, I'd say Hunter and Greg have the upper hand on guys like Matt Charbot and Jarrod right now. //

Man you are harsh. I guess you are only as good as your last race. i was in chicago last week were Matt trounced both Greg and Hunter. He had to out run Greg, and he put a big hurt on the bike to both those guys. I think that we watch matt so often in ITU racing where there are really great runners, that we forget that he is a very good runner himself. But when you get off the bike with the Brownlees and Gomez, of course your run will go backwards, just like Bennetts and Kempers does. And make no mistake, Greg raced very hard against Matt last week, came down to the last 1/2mile sprint with about a 6 grand difference in money. Hunter was never in it as his bike ride in the wind put him 2nd tier, and I suspect he took his foot off the gas in the run. Maybe could have run to 4th, but was probably thinking about this weeks race and going into the tank for basically nothing. Greg was the real ironman, racing all out last week, travelling to hyvee, and then having one of those few magical days to win the richest race in the world. And all that at 39, not too bad..

I hope we end up with 3 slots, but looking like a long shot now. I think it will be between Kemper, Bennett, and Charbot. Shoemaker seems to always be off the back, whether drafting legal or not. He has a good run, but not so much as compared in ITU, and not really effective in non draft when you give up minutes on the bike. Everyone runs good these days, and you have to run great to win ITU races. At least the guys I mentioned have some small chance of doing something special during the bike that might set them up for a hold on podium spot. Jarrod has not shown any of that potential..

I hope we end up with 3 slots, but looking like a long shot now. I think it will be between Kemper, Bennett, and Charbot. Shoemaker seems to always be off the back, whether drafting legal or not. He has a good run, but not so much as compared in ITU, and not really effective in non draft when you give up minutes on the bike

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Which is why I think the 3rd spot (if US gets its) will go to a domestique.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Kaleb VanOrt had the fastest run of the day (a handful of seconds), but he did the same, running through literally half the field (12 guys) to finish a few spots higher than Jarrod. I think Jarrod ran down 9 guys.

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Twitter | Kancman | Blog

Monty, I normally enjoy your posts, but with all due respect, that was one of the most asinine things I've read on Slowtwitch in awhile.

You must have forgotten about these races:

http://www.triathlon.org/...eo/2009_hamburg_men/

http://www.triathlon.org/...vee_elite_cup_-_men/

He may not be having a great season, but to say that a 14 flat 5k guy doesn't have the potential to mix it up on the run, when he clearly has in the past, is a pretty absurd statement. The races I linked from 2009 are probably some of his best performances, but he was top 10 in 4 WCS races, the Sprint World Championships, and Hy-Vee in 2010.

He was running very well this past spring in several road races (beating a few guys in the process who were just at this small track meet in Daegu this past week). It's possible he burned himself out doing that, or is injured (likely this), or has simply been off form for some other reason.

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Twitter | Kancman | Blog

Not sure what is so asinine about what I said. HE has not performed up to his on paper running results, ever. I have been following his progress ever since he was touted as the next great American hope, and it has never been realized. On paper, he should be running with the Brownlees, Gomez, and the other ITU guys, but he only ever nails a big split when he is off the back in the bike. He often gets in the huge lead groups that come off together, and he struggles to get top 10 in the big races, even though on paper he should be sprinting for the wins. I know he has had some limited success in the past, but never in the really big races, with all the big guns there. I don't know why he cannot run off the bike like he does in pure running races, but that is the fact of his career, especially lately, which is the time frame I'm mostly talking about. How long do we give him and how many races to pop that 29 flat 10k after coming off with the leaders??

You can tout his 14 flat and other running races all you want, and they are impressive. But he has had quite a long time already to prove he is the best runner in the sport, and he always comes up short when the chips are on the table. He has had a good career thus far, but not a stellar one. And I'm not sure if he ever will at this point, as he has had so many chances to prove he can run off the bike, but just doesn't quite get there. And he is not the 1st guy on paper to never realize their potential. I have known lots of guys and gals that had the same problem. That is why triathlon is so fun for me, because you just cannot plug in paper times on events and get a predicted tri time. Perhaps it is his tactics or coaching holding him back, or he just plain gives up more than a Brownlee or Gomez after a hard bike.

I wish all this were not true, and he was a hopeful for a medal at the next olympics, but nothing I have seen even puts him near the podium of a big race like that. As i said, those other 3 guys at least have a chance of doing something on the bike that might get them a few seconds that will put them in a hang on position on the run, rather than a head to head situation. I think that is out best bet right now, and even that is a real longshot. Jarrod has never shown that he has a special swim/bike, and always is catching up, or at best running head to head with those guys that always find a way to beat him..

Monty,

I agree with most of what you wrote. The US men trajectory is clearly downwards in the last couple of years, with the exception of Hunter, which is just regaining his place in the world order.

Hopefully some way along the line, the athletes that are under-performing will realize they need to make substantial changes in their approach, if they want to realize their full potential.

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The Triathlon Squad

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