Is she 78?

I'd just not say anything. Even an appropriate factual comment, such as "the slowest time for a Kona spot at this race for this age group last year was xx:xx" is likely to cause resentment.

Another option is to talk to the people encouraging her and see if they realize they're setting her up for disappointment.

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

No she is not 78 its just a new race and not many women signed up in her age group

The best I could think to do since someone mentioned it was to check out the competition and their times for previous races. I think this will make her realize she is not really there. But even with that everyboy keeps telling her that things happen in races and someone could get a cramp a flat a bad swim and she could win because of that. One even hinted and said that she had ideas on how she could win the race. I dont know what she meant by that comment.

with a new race I suppose the stats would have to be times from that AG that got Kona slots at other races.

Still, I would address the people telling her she's going to Kona, and do it discreetly.

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

Don't make this so complex, tell her straight up she is not going to Kona . No you're not being mean just honest.

sometimes it's better to let people hold onto hope and not muddy the waters (in my opinion)

I would hold my tongue - let reality and her race time determine her fate ...

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

What is the problem in someone thinking/hoping they may get a KONA spot. If she is not quick enough she will miss out, but don't crush her before the race. I would expend more energy thinking about how you can buoy her up if she misses out. :)

If you tell her, even if it's true, she'll always associate you with her not going to Kona. I suggest you just let her find out on her own.
I'm not sure why it matters if she knows she won't make it. She has nothing to lose to think positively. I start every IM w/ the thought that if enough of my age group gets wiped away in a tornedo, I may KQ.
I think long races are very mental, and negative thoughts can become self fulfilling prophecies.

I agree with the others to just stay out of the discussion and say nothing. The only time I really think it would be appropriate to discuss the issue would be if you were her coach. As her coach, i would think it would be role to set realistic and attainable goals for the race. But being just a member of her training group, I would just smile and walk away when the discussion came up.

Well I did stay out of the discussion yesterday in our whatssapp chat and let everyone tell how she was going to win. I dont want to take her hopes and dreams away but I just feel they are pushing her to go to hard on the race for something that is really hard to obtain. I dont want her to DNF because she went to hard on the bike. She barely finished her first IM and I know she has trained way more this time but still. So this is what I did because someone else in the group suggested she do. I checked out her competition and sent her the info privatly to her and gave her a few words of encouragement. I am not her official coach but I am her mentor and I intorduced her into triathlon and Ironman. At least now she knows who she is competing againts and has realistic times on what she needs to do to get that Kona slot.

Just be thankful you did good by getting her involved in triathlon and Ironman. If one needs ego boosting to finish a race, let it happen. If people are unrealistic about life yet live to accomplish a dream, there is nothing wrong with it. If your friend doesnt qualify, she may push harder for the next race or press on to another sport. The problem with Kona is that people (especially on this site) think you aren't shit if you don't qualify. Kona is not the end of the world as there are bigger and better things to consider.

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_____________________________________
DISH is how we do it.

Agreed!!

You did good. Nothing wrong with some super-supportive friends as long as she understands the competition that she's up against. It may make her work harder. Also, those roll-down spots sometimes go quite deep, especially in a new race, so there's always the small chance that she'll get a roll-down.

Stay out of it. If someone is actually delusional enough to believe that 16:55 will get them to Kona then they won't believe you if you try to tell them that they won't.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Like what, aside from the olympics and winning other IMs outright?

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

they could be more supportive and tell her she's going to win the women's race overall!

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

If her friend askes her if she thinks she can get to Kona it is most dishonest and does her no favors saying oh yes. I would rather hear the truth from a friend than a big fat lie. She's gonna be crushed after her triathlon and doesn't get a Kona slot after all the build up. IMHO honesty is always the best. She doesn't have to be mean when she tells her just matter of fact honest.

Strange things can happen ... some times it just depends who shows up at roll down.

Exactly!

15th place got it for me.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

If there is still training time before the race, you can help her train as well as she can over the time that is left. Also discussing nutrition, pacing and all those things.. The best thing you can do is help her have the best race day she is capable of.

No more time race is in 20 days. I think her training is all dialed in. So her times will be based on: pool 3:00 min 100's; bike average speed 15mph; run pace 12-12:30 mpm and like Little Red said she could get a spot on the roll down you never know.

Do let us know what happens...

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

Will do