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Look for a choppy market tomorrow
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Trump is saying he's going to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods. Complains trade talks not moving fast enough. This just before a large Chinese delegation is due to come to Washington to wrap up talks.

"For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billion Dollars of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%."

- DJT 5 May 2019
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Good timing for that because everyone will be looking the other way when Uber does its upcoming IPO :)
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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does this mean the price we have to pay for bikes made in China is going up again?
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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I find it interesting to see a President not knuckle down to a foreign power. The next 2 quarters will be a real test of statesmanship for both countries. Can Trump hold his resolve? I think he will.

There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.
~ John Adams, Letter to Jonathan Jackson (October 2, 1780).
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Kinda weird that the president is bragging on twitter for increasing the taxes people in the US pay for goods. Also, is he claiming increasing taxes is good for the economy?
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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jkca1 wrote:
I find it interesting to see a President not knuckle down to a foreign power. The next 2 quarters will be a real test of statesmanship for both countries. Can Trump hold his resolve? I think he will.
He is bowing down to a foreign power. Just not that one :P
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [rich_m] [ In reply to ]
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does this mean the price we have to pay for bikes made in China is going up again?//

You mean the bikes and wetsuits that used to be made in China, now made in Vietnam, and by the same Chinese companies that just moved their production over there?? It is going to be a game of whack-a-mole, tax china, they pop up in Vietnam, tax them, it will be somewhere else with cheap labor. Of course Trump is too stupid to see this, and of course if he did, he wouldn't really care. He is happy if he gets to crow about something, whether it is a win for us or not. I put a short on the market a few days ago, so I hope Kay is right and I can cash it out soon..
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
does this mean the price we have to pay for bikes made in China is going up again?//

You mean the bikes and wetsuits that used to be made in China, now made in Vietnam, and by the same Chinese companies that just moved their production over there?? It is going to be a game of whack-a-mole, tax china, they pop up in Vietnam, tax them, it will be somewhere else with cheap labor. Of course Trump is too stupid to see this, and of course if he did, he wouldn't really care. He is happy if he gets to crow about something, whether it is a win for us or not. I put a short on the market a few days ago, so I hope Kay is right and I can cash it out soon..
Two things:

1) I'd rather spread out dependence on consumer goods to multiple countries than keep it all in China.
2) With China and their lack of respect for intellectual property - well, I'm not sad if they lose some export clout.

That said, I think we need a comprehensive trade policy to handle those things and not just whatever tariff-of-the-day Trump comes up with. Withdrawing from the TPP was a colossally bad idea.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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Did you miss the part where I said it was Chinese companies still making all this stuff?? Ok, the locals get a job and get their $10 a day, but all that money is still going back to Chinese companies. And in the end, they may even make more money this way, Chinese labor has been getting more expensive since they now have an actual middle class.

As to their thievery, yes something has to be done. Lets try and use a scalpel instead of a sledgehammer though..
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [tigermilk] [ In reply to ]
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tigermilk wrote:
This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.

Really? They were open this morning? Must have changed trading hours on me this weekend.

Pro tip...Dow is for retail muppets
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
tigermilk wrote:
This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.

Really? They were open this morning? Must have changed trading hours on me this weekend.

Pro tip...Dow is for retail muppets
Pro tip. Know that futures open Sunday night... They are called pre-market for a reason.

Oh, and I guess me and my 2 comma balance are Muppets. Thanks Kermit.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [tigermilk] [ In reply to ]
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tigermilk wrote:
windywave wrote:
tigermilk wrote:
This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.


Really? They were open this morning? Must have changed trading hours on me this weekend.

Pro tip...Dow is for retail muppets

Pro tip. Know that futures open Sunday night... They are called pre-market for a reason.

Oh, and I guess me and my 2 comma balance are Muppets. Thanks Kermit.


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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [tigermilk] [ In reply to ]
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tigermilk wrote:
windywave wrote:
tigermilk wrote:
This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.

Really? They were open this morning? Must have changed trading hours on me this weekend.

Pro tip...Dow is for retail muppets
Pro tip. Know that futures open Sunday night... They are called pre-market for a reason.

Oh, and I guess me and my 2 comma balance are Muppets. Thanks Kermit.

Weird flex, but Ok.

Can anyone that has money in the market, except shorts, complain about the trajectory since Trump has taken office? Say what you want about Everything else he has done, but complaining about a 550 point swing in pre-market DOW (which windy correctly pointed out is Fool’s gold) while reaping its rewards is a bit rich, no?
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [TimeIsUp] [ In reply to ]
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TimeIsUp wrote:
Can anyone that has money in the market, except shorts, complain about the trajectory since Trump has taken office? Say what you want about Everything else he has done, but complaining about a 550 point swing in pre-market DOW (which windy correctly pointed out is Fool’s gold) while reaping its rewards is a bit rich, no?

Didn't you mean to say "since Obama took office"?
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [HandHeartCrown] [ In reply to ]
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HandHeartCrown wrote:
TimeIsUp wrote:
Can anyone that has money in the market, except shorts, complain about the trajectory since Trump has taken office? Say what you want about Everything else he has done, but complaining about a 550 point swing in pre-market DOW (which windy correctly pointed out is Fool’s gold) while reaping its rewards is a bit rich, no?

Didn't you mean to say "since Obama took office"?

I haven’t said many positive things about Trump so you nailed this one.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [TimeIsUp] [ In reply to ]
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TimeIsUp wrote:
tigermilk wrote:
windywave wrote:
tigermilk wrote:
This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.

Really? They were open this morning? Must have changed trading hours on me this weekend.

Pro tip...Dow is for retail muppets
Pro tip. Know that futures open Sunday night... They are called pre-market for a reason.

Oh, and I guess me and my 2 comma balance are Muppets. Thanks Kermit.

Weird flex, but Ok.

Can anyone that has money in the market, except shorts, complain about the trajectory since Trump has taken office? Say what you want about Everything else he has done, but complaining about a 550 point swing in pre-market DOW (which windy correctly pointed out is Fool’s gold) while reaping its rewards is a bit rich, no?
Did I complain about the point swing? No. I prefer to buy my etfs and mutual funds on a discount. He is Pres. Dumbass for intersecting pointless commentary via twitter. It merely intersects unnecessary volatility into the market.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [tigermilk] [ In reply to ]
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tigermilk wrote:
windywave wrote:
tigermilk wrote:
This morning Dow futures were up nearly 1% (over 200 points). They now show down over 350 points, so a 550+ poi t swing. Thanks President Dumbass.

Really? They were open this morning? Must have changed trading hours on me this weekend.

Pro tip...Dow is for retail muppets
Pro tip. Know that futures open Sunday night... They are called pre-market for a reason.

Oh, and I guess me and my 2 comma balance are Muppets. Thanks Kermit.

A) that's chump change from a trading perspective (not a personal dig on you, that's a good healthy balance to have, but being worth X doesn't make you knowledgeable or not a muppet) [this preceding parenthetical brought to you by the windy initiative to be nicer]
B) you didn't know the reference
C) you are retail
D) you referenced the dow
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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I just want to thank Trump for giving me such a quick out of my short on the S&P. I sold this morning when it was down 33, and it looks like the usual tweet overreaction, now coming back a bit off the lows of the day. Back to 100% out of the market, I still just dont trust this guy, or this market..

I presume it will go back to its grinding up for awhile, will be looking for another short oppertunity once we have some more up days to possible records...
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I'm up about 25% on the PagerDuty IPO but in general I agree with your sentiment.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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I wonder if he's dusting off those tweets about breaking 25,000 again.

We are so fucked.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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Dow 30
26,069.77
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Did you miss the part where I said it was Chinese companies still making all this stuff?? Ok, the locals get a job and get their $10 a day, but all that money is still going back to Chinese companies. And in the end, they may even make more money this way, Chinese labor has been getting more expensive since they now have an actual middle class.

As to their thievery, yes something has to be done. Lets try and use a scalpel instead of a sledgehammer though..

This isn't about money. It's about power and the endgame is to use a sledgehammer (e.g. completely disengage from trade). Everything leading up to that point is just political theater.
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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
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chaparral wrote:
Kinda weird that the president is bragging on twitter for increasing the taxes people in the US pay for goods. Also, is he claiming increasing taxes is good for the economy?

You don't think we should tax imports? Great. I agree and so do most mainstream economists. However, the onus here is really on China. The chart below doesn't even come close to estimating the "effective" tariff rate when you take into account non-tariff barriers imposed by China. Even if you did account for that, it wouldn't come close to accounting for IP theft and forced technology transfer. The onus here is really on China, not the U.S.

...not that it matters. There won't be a deal.


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Re: Look for a choppy market tomorrow [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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