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Lamb wins!!
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Well not exactly yet, just wanted to be first to post it up. 95% in and he has a .6% lead right now, so really too close to call this yet, but Lamb is in the drivers seat with 5% to go.

Is this the first wave of a huge set to sweep the country? Trump won this district by 20%, so even if he loses by a couple votes it does not look good. Or is this somehow fake news??
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I think the good news is Lamb is a very moderate Dem, a centrist. Perhaps the Dems will take note and run moderate candidates and pull the party back from the edge of stage left and get back to being the party of the working class. If so, the midterms will be the opposite result of the beatings Obama took at the hands of the ‘Pubs in the last 8 yrs. and the Pubs did it by running solid candidates (generally).
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Midterms typically don't go well for the party in power. The math makes it likely that the Repubs may still gain seats in the Senate but they'll almost assuredly lose seats in the House. Can the Dems take back the majority? Doubtful, but will be close and interesting.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [Spiridon Louis] [ In reply to ]
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Spiridon Louis wrote:
Midterms typically don't go well for the party in power. The math makes it likely that the Repubs may still gain seats in the Senate but they'll almost assuredly lose seats in the House. Can the Dems take back the majority? Doubtful, but will be close and interesting.

If the Dems win the house, then Trump will definitely be impeached. The Senate will acquit of course.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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800ish votes in it right now.. crazy.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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JD21 wrote:
I think the good news is Lamb is a very moderate Dem, a centrist. Perhaps the Dems will take note and run moderate candidates and pull the party back from the edge of stage left and get back to being the party of the working class. If so, the midterms will be the opposite result of the beatings Obama took at thealt right hands of the ‘Pubs in the last 8 yrs. and the Pubs did it by running solid candidates (generally).

Compared to the alt right whack job he was running against, Lamb was a voice of reason. But the reality is this election was more about Trump than either of the candidates. It's quite clear that the orange hair wonder was rejected in a state that gave him a 20% advantage last time. It's been close but after losing in solid GOP states Alabama and Penn that says something loud and clear.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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Ya looking at the two running Lamb was the more centrist for sure. And you are right in that if either party nominates the wack jobs that run on the far right or left, I think this upcoming electorate is going to reject them. Except for in areas where mostly wack jobs live and they can push through a Maxine Waters or some white supremest dude running on the confederate flag..

Wow only about 800+ votes with 99% in and over a lot of absentee ballots to count still. Seems like it should be over, but I don't hear any fat ladies singing as of yet. I think the news is going to milk this to tomorrow morning, I'm going to bed and boycotting this bullshit...'
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I hope Lamb wins - Trump needs to feel the weight of the moderates across the country (and so do the Dems for that matter). Just like Alabama - run solid moderate candidates or lose. The moderates on both sides are fine w me. And Lamb rejected Pelosi. He’s a great candidate.
Last edited by: JD21: Mar 13, 18 20:26
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Re: Lamb wins!! [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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Trump needs to feel the weight of the moderates across the country //

Not really going to matter how much weight he feels from moderates, he is on his on a collision course and he is taking his 35% of always Trumpers with him. He will of corse spin this in his mind as a win somehow, actually he will blame someone else for it and move on. If his guy wins by 1 vote it will all be because of him(disregarding the 20 points he won the district by last year). He really is on a train to no where, only question is how much damage is he going to do to our country and system when he finally crashes it.


I honestly dont think he makes it through this first term, he will be the first ever president to just quit( not counting Nixon who was going to be impeached if he didn't resign.) And of course that will be someone else's fault too, all those Russian banks that forced that money on him to run through his towers and hotels..
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Ya looking at the two running Lamb was the more centrist for sure. And you are right in that if either party nominates the wack jobs that run on the far right or left, I think this upcoming electorate is going to reject them. Except for in areas where mostly wack jobs live and they can push through a Maxine Waters or some white supremest dude running on the confederate flag..

Wow only about 800+ votes with 99% in and over a lot of absentee ballots to count still. Seems like it should be over, but I don't hear any fat ladies singing as of yet. I think the news is going to milk this to tomorrow morning, I'm going to bed and boycotting this bullshit...'

It will be interesting to see how Trump tries to spin doctor this into a "win" for himself. He'll probably blame it all on Saccone for "not listening to me" or something similar. Even if Saccone is able to pull it back by a few votes, it's still a loss for Trump no matter how he spins it.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Funny you say he’ll quit - I’ve been telling my wife that for a while. He’ll eventually throw up his hands and walk once he sees the legal troubles hitting hard (it’ll be in his financial dealings). We shall see...
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Dems will probably do well if they keep running anti-Pelosi, pro-gun former Marines in conservative districts. I think PA and AL had more to do with the people running than with Trump. Lotta Trump voters couldn't tolerate Roy Moore in AL and I can see why a Trump voter would choose Lamb over the old dude the Repubs ran. I think incumbents will fare better than Repubs did in these 2 open-seat races.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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JD21 wrote:
I think the good news is Lamb is a very moderate Dem, a centrist. Perhaps the Dems will take note and run moderate candidates and pull the party back from the edge of stage left and get back to being the party of the working class. If so, the midterms will be the opposite result of the beatings Obama took at the hands of the ‘Pubs in the last 8 yrs. and the Pubs did it by running solid candidates (generally).

Agreed. Extremists are not the solution.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [Spiridon Louis] [ In reply to ]
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Spiridon Louis wrote:
Dems will probably do well if they keep running anti-Pelosi, pro-gun former Marines in conservative districts. I think PA and AL had more to do with the people running than with Trump. Lotta Trump voters couldn't tolerate Roy Moore in AL and I can see why a Trump voter would choose Lamb over the old dude the Repubs ran. I think incumbents will fare better than Repubs did in these 2 open-seat races.

This seems about right. This one tidbit from Saccone blew my mind.

"I've talked to so many of these on the left," Saccone said. "And they have a hatred for our president. I tell you, many of them have a hatred for our country."
"I'll tell you some more — my wife and I saw it again today, they have a hatred for God," Saccone continued.
WTF?! I mean, seriously, WTF?!
Isn't it just possible that a person can disagree with your party and NOT hate the country and hate God?
If I was on the fence for this guy, those comments would push me right over to the other candidate. How can anybody think this is going to get you votes? The people this resonates with are already with him right? It's not like somebody who agrees with that comment is going to vote for the democrat I'd think.

Kevin

http://kevinmetcalfe.dreamhosters.com
My Strava
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Re: Lamb wins!! [Spiridon Louis] [ In reply to ]
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Spiridon Louis wrote:
Dems will probably do well if they keep running anti-Pelosi, pro-gun former Marines in conservative districts. I think PA and AL had more to do with the people running than with Trump. Lotta Trump voters couldn't tolerate Roy Moore in AL and I can see why a Trump voter would choose Lamb over the old dude the Repubs ran. I think incumbents will fare better than Repubs did in these 2 open-seat races.

But Trump is the reason that these wacko candidates have gained traction. Other more moderate candidates lose out to the wackos because the Trump voters prefer the screwballs.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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FishyJoe wrote:
Spiridon Louis wrote:
Dems will probably do well if they keep running anti-Pelosi, pro-gun former Marines in conservative districts. I think PA and AL had more to do with the people running than with Trump. Lotta Trump voters couldn't tolerate Roy Moore in AL and I can see why a Trump voter would choose Lamb over the old dude the Repubs ran. I think incumbents will fare better than Repubs did in these 2 open-seat races.

But Trump is the reason that these wacko candidates have gained traction. Other more moderate candidates lose out to the wackos because the Trump voters prefer the screwballs.

I don’t know anything about Saccone but this is certainly untrue when it comes to Roy Moore. He’s been a figure in Alabama politics forever.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I think we should be prepared to start hearing "Madame Speaker" early next year.

Suffer Well.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [jmh] [ In reply to ]
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jmh wrote:
I think we should be prepared to start hearing "Madame Speaker" early next year.

As long as it's not Pelosi.

_____
TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Lamb didn't have to contend a primary which must have helped a centrist get the nomination without making commitments to the left of where he needed to be to win.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [Spiridon Louis] [ In reply to ]
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It's coming....



The blue tidal wave

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." - Bertrand Russell
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Re: Lamb wins!! [Spiridon Louis] [ In reply to ]
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Spiridon Louis wrote:
Dems will probably do well if they keep running anti-Pelosi, pro-gun former Marines in conservative districts. I think PA and AL had more to do with the people running than with Trump. Lotta Trump voters couldn't tolerate Roy Moore in AL and I can see why a Trump voter would choose Lamb over the old dude the Repubs ran. I think incumbents will fare better than Repubs did in these 2 open-seat races.

This is going to be an interesting mid-term, no doubt. It almost makes me enjoy politics again.

Alabama's adoration of Moore should be an embarrassment to them, but they seem fine with it. I don't think you can draw many conclusions from that race.

The PA race should cause a little more worry in Trumplandia. There was nothing especially wrong with Saccone. He was kind of blah, but he wasn't chasing high school cheerleaders through the mall either. And this district went for Trump by 20 points, that's a big swing in 2 years. But one election does not make a trend.

I find it amusing that people don't understand that a lot of liberal don't like Pelosi as the mouthpiece of the Democratic Party, think abortion should be legal but also personally against it, and don't think all guns should be banned. I'm about as far left as you can get and I fit all 3.

538 ran an article in December, https://fivethirtyeight.com/...cratic-wave-in-2018/ I think they make more of special elections than they actually are, but right now it is the only actual thing we can lay our hands on. And the trend is pretty apparent there.

But if I were the Republicans I would ask, has Trump gained supporters or lost them? Has he brought more people into the GOP or turned more people off? Do middle of the road voters want more or less people in Congress supporting Trump? Do you think the news around Trump will trend positive or negative between now and November?

He won by a razor thin margin across a small handful of states. Even if you don't care about the popular vote, a few states that swung it to Trump were very close. FL - 1.3%, MI - 0.3%, PA - 1.2%, WI - 1.0%. It doesn't take much erosion of support to have a very different map.

But we will see. In 7 or 8 months we will have our answer.

We are so fucked.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [j p o] [ In reply to ]
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I dont think 538 plays too much into special elections. Its just something that is easier to write articles about.

They say in most of their articles reporting about the swings/blue wave that estimates about how things will play out in the fall are based on: 1) historical data, 2) president polling, 3) generic ballots, 4) special elections.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [j p o] [ In reply to ]
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j p o wrote:

I find it amusing that people don't understand that a lot of liberal don't like Pelosi as the mouthpiece of the Democratic Party, think abortion should be legal but also personally against it, and don't think all guns should be banned. I'm about as far left as you can get and I fit all 3.

I'm pretty far right and agree with you on all 3 (and you could substitute Trump or Ryan/Repub party for Pelosi/Dem party). Where are the people like us in DC? Imagine what the 2 of us could get done...........
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Re: Lamb wins!! [rich_m] [ In reply to ]
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rich_m wrote:
Lamb didn't have to contend a primary which must have helped a centrist get the nomination without making commitments to the left of where he needed to be to win.

Yep, and current day DC has a way of getting centrists on both sides to step in line with the Party.
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Re: Lamb wins!! [Spiridon Louis] [ In reply to ]
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Spiridon Louis wrote:

I'm pretty far right and agree with you on all 3 (and you could substitute Trump or Ryan/Repub party for Pelosi/Dem party). Where are the people like us in DC? Imagine what the 2 of us could get done...........

I don't know. I'm not a Pelosi fan, and I agree that she's wildly unpopular here among younger, active librals in LiberalHaven CA.

That said the winners of these seem to show a preference for moderates. Even if that's possibly just the dynamics of these particular special elections.

And Pelosi is a moderate. Ryan is a moderate. So maybe people are "over" Pelosi/Ryan, but I think the smart thing to do would be to find substitutes that really aren't that different.

During the Trump election a "moderate" was a horrible thing for a class of GOP voters. Worse than a Democrat. I think that approach may have to be reconsidered unless they want literal Democrats running things. That bluff is being called.
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