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Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them?
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I was browsing an article on CNN on the Wagner guys, and how they have very high casualty rates and seam to be used as cannonfodder by the Russians in the war against Ukraine. In addition they seam to have a fight until the death, and no surrender culture from within.

I know there are a handfully of military guys on the panel. Do you know what these guys make for what seams to be a certain death or wounding? Other than wanting to and liking to fight whats the end game for the majority? All the money in the world won't help you if you are Dead. Is the huge reward at the end if you can Cash in so to speak?

How much different are they from our "contractors"?

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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [gymrat] [ In reply to ]
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We had these kind of guys in Yugoslav wars. There was a number of Serbian paramilitary groups, most of them criminals. What is in it for them? Killing with licence, rape, looting, destruction without any state imposed consequences. War brings out the worst in some people and these kind of guys can sink as low as they wish in humanity and savagery. They can kill because there are no consequences. There is little to gain for future. Even if they survive, they are psychopaths with no future who will quickly be back in criminal life and prison. Most of them will become liability sooner or later and will end up being killed.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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spudone wrote:
The random Wagner fighters are frequently recruited from Russian prisons. The "go fight for X months and get out of jail free" deal. Oh and by the way if you try to desert, we'll shoot you.

A concise explanation.

Oh and by the way, if you try to desert, we'll kill you by crushing your skull with a sledgehammer.

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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [gymrat] [ In reply to ]
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I'd guess a lot of the regular mercenaries aren't terribly different than "contractors" doing it for the money. The prisoners are doing it so they can out of prison.

Also I would guess the bulk of the prisoners were recruited before there was any knowledge of how bad it was going to be for them in Ukraine, and even more recently recruited prisoners don't have any thing like access to the information we have.

Not to mention, they're prisoners with probably a lifetime of bad decisions behind them that led them to prison. Just one more in a long line of unwise things they've done.
Last edited by: ThisIsIt: Jan 25, 23 1:48
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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i always think that a useful social science exercise is to imagine yourself in that situation: what would it take for you to join wagner?

i guess:
-a crap economy and no hope of a decent life
-crap education and healthcare
-a corrupt state and limited rule of law, so no confidence that you'll even be able to consolidate your earnings if you do make good
-low life expectancy making you inclined to gamble your life (fatalism is tough to shake if everyone around you is dropping like flies)

if you're in jail and someone offers you a ticket out, you may feel it's worth the odds to gamble on going to the front and maybe surviving, versus staying in prison and definitely getting shanked/raped/held for life.

likewise if you're living in general misery, a shot at earning a few bucks and learning a 'trade' might be more appealing than ... the alternative.

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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [iron_mike] [ In reply to ]
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iron_mike wrote:
i always think that a useful social science exercise is to imagine yourself in that situation: what would it take for you to join wagner?

i guess:
-a crap economy and no hope of a decent life
-crap education and healthcare
-a corrupt state and limited rule of law, so no confidence that you'll even be able to consolidate your earnings if you do make good
-low life expectancy making you inclined to gamble your life (fatalism is tough to shake if everyone around you is dropping like flies)

if you're in jail and someone offers you a ticket out, you may feel it's worth the odds to gamble on going to the front and maybe surviving, versus staying in prison and definitely getting shanked/raped/held for life.

likewise if you're living in general misery, a shot at earning a few bucks and learning a 'trade' might be more appealing than ... the alternative.

I saw at least a couple of interviews with captured Wagner guys early in the war, one was a pilot who was shot down, and intercepted phone calls and they pretty explicitly say they're doing it for the money. I think they were all ex-Russian military.

The prisoner thing looks stupid now, but I can't imagine the vast majority of them had any idea what they were getting themselves into. Sure looks stupid now given what has happened and what we now know, maybe a much more sensible gamble six months ago. Especially if you were someone with a long or even life sentence.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [gymrat] [ In reply to ]
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2Okpg9KkgA


Ward Carroll did a couple of pieces on Wagner on his channel. The link above is an analysis of a leaked video of the head of Wagner making a recruiting pitch at a Russian prison. Just can't imagine where being cannon fodder is a better choice than prison, so that is a pretty strong indication of how bad those prisons are. Infinitesimally low odds of survival and restarting your life being better than zero odds of ever getting out and returning to society.


Say what you will about the former Blackwater and others, but they aren't sending their people into certain death.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [csdavis] [ In reply to ]
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csdavis wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2Okpg9KkgA


Ward Carroll did a couple of pieces on Wagner on his channel. The link above is an analysis of a leaked video of the head of Wagner making a recruiting pitch at a Russian prison. Just can't imagine where being cannon fodder is a better choice than prison, so that is a pretty strong indication of how bad those prisons are.

Again, you're assuming the prisoners had the "perfect knowledge" of today when they made their decisions. Most of them were recruited months ago, and it's really only in the last month or two that it has become clear just how bad it is for them. Really the last few weeks is when all the extreme casualty numbers have started appearing. I can't imagine even if they are still recruiting in prisons that the prisoners really have an idea of just how bad it is going to be for them. I wouldn't think they have access to Youtube or Tiktok?

Russian prisons may be hell holes and some may choose canon fodder over it, but I don't think anyone really knew 6 months ago they were being sent to a slaughter.
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Post deleted by spudone [ In reply to ]
Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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spudone wrote:
I suspect many of the prisoners weren't even given a choice.

Maybe, plenty have been taken prisoner and I haven't seen anyone yet saying they were forced into it.

I think it's going to be interesting to see what becomes of the ones who have completed their 6 months and set free back into society. Wouldn't be surprised to see them being mobilized in short order.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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ThisIsIt wrote:
spudone wrote:
I suspect many of the prisoners weren't even given a choice.


Maybe, plenty have been taken prisoner and I haven't seen anyone yet saying they were forced into it.

I think it's going to be interesting to see what becomes of the ones who have completed their 6 months and set free back into society. Wouldn't be surprised to see them being mobilized in short order.


You really think they are going to let them back after 6 months?
Last edited by: FishyJoe: Jan 25, 23 10:43
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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FishyJoe wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
spudone wrote:
I suspect many of the prisoners weren't even given a choice.


Maybe, plenty have been taken prisoner and I haven't seen anyone yet saying they were forced into it.

I think it's going to be interesting to see what becomes of the ones who have completed their 6 months and set free back into society. Wouldn't be surprised to see them being mobilized in short order.


You really think they are going to let them back after 6 months?

There's already videos of ones being set free at the end of their contracts.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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ThisIsIt wrote:
FishyJoe wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
spudone wrote:
I suspect many of the prisoners weren't even given a choice.


Maybe, plenty have been taken prisoner and I haven't seen anyone yet saying they were forced into it.

I think it's going to be interesting to see what becomes of the ones who have completed their 6 months and set free back into society. Wouldn't be surprised to see them being mobilized in short order.


You really think they are going to let them back after 6 months?

There's already videos of ones being set free at the end of their contracts.

Some interesting points on Wagner, their ability to recruit (most people would now rather stay in a Russian prison) and some of the internal politics between Wagner/prighozin/traditional RU military leadership.

Very interesting that Wagner would consider a termination of their contract in UA as an act of treason committed by the Russian Government…

https://twitter.com/...RQaEjONBvb4ozYTHSy-A

Keep in mind the usual disclaimers of “Twitter” and “opinion” but I do find the internal Russian politics interesting and the possibility that internal RU conflict has the potential to end this conflict faster than external Western aid. Or a combination of western aid and Ukrainian execution (and Russian ineptitude/apathy/corruption) is driving internal conflict.

Maurice
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [mauricemaher] [ In reply to ]
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mauricemaher wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
FishyJoe wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
spudone wrote:
I suspect many of the prisoners weren't even given a choice.


Maybe, plenty have been taken prisoner and I haven't seen anyone yet saying they were forced into it.

I think it's going to be interesting to see what becomes of the ones who have completed their 6 months and set free back into society. Wouldn't be surprised to see them being mobilized in short order.


You really think they are going to let them back after 6 months?


There's already videos of ones being set free at the end of their contracts.


Some interesting points on Wagner, their ability to recruit (most people would now rather stay in a Russian prison) and some of the internal politics between Wagner/prighozin/traditional RU military leadership.

Very interesting that Wagner would consider a termination of their contract in UA as an act of treason committed by the Russian Government…

https://twitter.com/...RQaEjONBvb4ozYTHSy-A

Keep in mind the usual disclaimers of “Twitter” and “opinion” but I do find the internal Russian politics interesting and the possibility that internal RU conflict has the potential to end this conflict faster than external Western aid. Or a combination of western aid and Ukrainian execution (and Russian ineptitude/apathy/corruption) is driving internal conflict.

Maurice

My understanding is Putin could shut down Wagner any time he wants because private military organizations are illegal in Russia. So Prigohzin or whoever might consider it "treason" if the Russian govt. stops funding them or Russian military stops supplying them, but they'd be SOL trying to do anything legally about it.

I've read the failure of Wagner to really make any significant impression has now led to refocus on the Russian military to try to achieve something. More cynically the use of the Russian prisoners was just a ploy to buy time while they trained up the mobiks, refitted, etc. to try an offensive this spring or summer.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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One thing I've heard mentioned is that Putin does not want any one organization too powerful, as that represents a risk to his authority. This is one of the reasons Wagners exists is to prevent the Army from becoming a force that could overthrow him. Having anyone or anything too competent is a risk to Putin.
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Re: Wagner Mercanaries / Whats in it for them? [FishyJoe] [ In reply to ]
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FishyJoe wrote:
One thing I've heard mentioned is that Putin does not want any one organization too powerful, as that represents a risk to his authority. This is one of the reasons Wagners exists is to prevent the Army from becoming a force that could overthrow him. Having anyone or anything too competent is a risk to Putin.


Yeah, Perun's latest video is all about why these different military factions exist within Russia. Along with his ones on corruption and the endemic lying within the system, maybe the "All Bling, no Basics" as well, they pretty much explain why Ukraine is largely a self-inflicted wound for the Russians.


Last edited by: ThisIsIt: Jan 27, 23 8:22
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