I’m excited to see him. Should be interesting to see if he can add the 5th of 6 stars here. The weather here at that time of year can be 40* or it can be 75*. But he knows that already.

Definitely not on that course.

Mutai ran 2:03 there. Yes there was wind but if Mutai could run that fast Kipchoge may go much faster. Assuming similar conditions.

Very cool. I'll be there this year, it'll be neat to see him at the athlete panel. I can make it my finish less than an hour behind him

It's usually not as fast of a course as Berlin or London, but if the weather is like it was in 2011 (i.e. tailwind), I think he could do it. That year Mutai went 2:03:02 (his next best time was 2:04:15), Mosop went 2:03:02 (next best time 2:05:03), Gebremariam went 2:04:53 (next best time 2:08), Ryan Hall went 2:04:58 (next best time 2:06:17)

The net downhill and distance from start to finish means it wouldn't be a record, of course. But would still be cool to see it done in an actual race.

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Matt

Yes kinda what I’m hoping too. Either way it’ll be most likely another spectacular run.

Kipchoge is 38. Is his decision to run Boston indicative that he no longer believes he can be man to take the world record under 2 hours?

I doubt it. He’s still committed to Paris 2024 and he clearly has complete belief he can do whatever he commits to.

Maybe. Though he is only 4 months removed from his 2:01:09 in Berlin so he's at the top of his game. But 69 seconds is a lot for a guy who has probably been nailing all the little details in his prior record runs.

He has also said in the past that he wants to win all 6 marathon majors. So his window to accomplish that is probably starting to shorten as well and he might want to go for those while he still has the best chance. Which makes me wonder if he would do New York this fall as well?

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Matt

Doing Boston and New York in 2023 would be good preparation for Paris 2024. If he wins all three, his GOAT status will be something untouchable for a long time.

No kidding. All the major marathons, 3 Olympics and a sun 2 it’s just out of this galaxy.

I don’t think it means that at all. He’s going for wins in the 6 majors. He has to run Boston to get to 6.

Kipchoge doesn't need to be in 1:59 form to win Boston, New York or even to take gold in Paris. He does to take the WR under 2 hours.

His opportunity to run sub 2 is limited. Much more so than his opportunity to earn money at Boston where the winning time is comparatively irrelevant.

Choosing to run Boston and New York lessens his chances to run a legit sub 2.

Running the first sub 2 will do more for Kipchoge's legacy than bagging a few late career majors, which while impressive, would still be rendered to fairly inconsequential footnotes behind even his current achievements.

Almost 70 years on, how many of us can recall who's record Bannister broke to run sub 4, or who bettered Bannister's mark the following month? Yet Bannister's name remains intrinsically linked to the mile.

Remind me, who won the Boston Marathon in 1954?

Not sure. But I’m pretty sure they hadn’t also won Chicago, Tokyo, London, and Berlin. And had two gold medals on top of it

Bannister is an interesting comparison because when Bannister broke 4 it wasn’t in a meet and he had Chataway and Brasher there as pacemakers. Not entirely dissimilar to how Kipchoge broke 2 in the Ineos challenge

But I get what you are saying. He could probably wait and win Boston and New York post post Paris 2024. But running sub-2 in a race post 2024 would be a taller ask

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Matt

He may still be the fastest currently but I think that time is dwindling quickly and he is not going to have time to break 2 in a legit race and may even not win all the majors.

He will have to win Boston and NYC which is still a challenge even for him, and by the time 2024 rolls around he’ll be almost 40, there’s simply too many great runners to see his domination continuing much longer.

Even with the later age of peaking for marathoners I am shocked he is still dominant at 38, and it seems necessary to assume the sport is not saturated or he is a true anomaly among anomalies.

Not quite.

Bannister broke ran 3:59.7 at Iffley Road in the annual meet between Oxford University and the Amateur Athletic Association, the latter of which Bannister represented at the meet. Chataway and Brasher's roles were within the rules of competition, unlike the multiple orchestrations of Kipchoge's Ineos run which extended well beyond simple pacing.

Ironically, Chataway was instrumental in Landy running 3.58 weeks later in Finland, but as a competitor rather than a pacer, sticking with Landy until the final 300 metres.

Getting back to Kipchoge, how does the remainder of his career pan out in relation to sub 2?

April 2023 - Boston
September 2023 - Berlin? (sub 2?)
April 2024 London/Rottodam/other? (sub 2 contingency?)
September 2024 - Paris Olympics
December 2024 - Fukuoka? (possibly a final shot at sub 2 if it hasn't already eluded Eliud?)

If he does want to run sub 2, New York isn't a likely venue. He's best to run and win New York in 2024 against a comparatively weak post-Olympic field, assuming his already bagged the sub 2. His winning time wouldn't matter, even if it were 2:10. If he elects to run New York next year, I think it's a pretty clear indication he's forsaken any ambitions to run sub 2.

Kipchoge will be 40 in November 2024, and it will be over 21 years since his 5000 metre gold medal at the Paris World Champs. That's a long time at the top.

He will do Boston, NY and Olympics. I don't understand why you are all so focused on the sub 2, it will not happen ans i think kilcoge himself is very contempt with that as well. He tried, he paved the way for others. His attitude and mentality is simply different than the rest of us.

Odd question in the light that he just broke the world record, again, just 3 months ago :-)

Jeroen

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Owner at TRIPRO, The Netherlands

Maybe because up until 2 months ago, Eluid was too! :-)

Unless he's announced he's no longer interested, why wouldn't we be? But his decision to prioritise Boston over a sub 2 attempt is bound to invite speculation if it's still on the cards. After all, the great man himself once said, "Don't chase two rabbits at once", which simultaneously ticking off majors and chasing sub 2 would seem to be.

Marathoners have been discussing the possibility of a man running under 2 for probably half a century. We're hardly going to stop a few weeks after someone pops a 2:01:09.

That's exactly why he is doing Boston in 2023 (from a source at the BAA) rather than at another date. Paris is hilly and he hasn't raced a lot (if any) hilly courses.

Super excited for this! Kipchoge has only done a handful of non-paced/tactical marathons in championship settings. I think the sub-2/WR talk needs to chill a bit. Boston isn't that fast of a course. Mutai was on another planet when he ran 2:03 (followed it with NYC CR) & had the best weather imaginable. The next fastest winning time to that one is ~3:00 slower. They haven't come close, even in the super shoe era. The late start time doesn't help. The hills will slow you down no matter who you are. If Kipchoge blasted a 60:00 front half, I'd love to see how his legs respond after all of that downhill pounding. But what I would really like to see is Kipchoge in a pack going up Heartbreak Hill & being challenged late in the race. In 2021, Kipruto split 14:0x from 35-40k after the Newton hills. Would love to know if that could drop Kipchoge or if he would blast something sub-14:00 in a race like that.

this will be terrific..

think he'd need a tailwind for sub-2, though. But he's used to Kenyan hills, the Boston ones will scarcely register..

Although it wouldn't be a "world record" as others have suggested, under the right conditions he could conceivably break 2 hrs. He's getting up there, so this seems like the right time to roll the dice while he still is not too far off his peak. Or I might guess his primary sponsor has the same idea and there would be a huge payout for him if he does it.

I guess I'd just assumed that he's getting up there and wants to do some new races before he retires. IMO this is the start of his retirement tour. We shall certainly see though.

Can’t wait to see how this race plays out. Should be epic.

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Let food be thy medicine...