swapped a 0.4 (Oct 2022) for a 0.9 (Oct 2021) in that crappy 12-month moving block way they report CPI changes on an annual basis and then quote it as if it is "current" rate. We've had a 0, 0.4 and 0.4 for the last 3 months ....so really inflation is in the 4-5% range on an annual basis right now if the current rate of change was calculated on a smoothed curve.

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And the question remains. where were you.

You're preaching to the choir on this, as previous posts of mine will attest, but it's still good news. And for whatever it's worth I guess the fact the headline rate is slower to unwind is counterbalanced by the fact it's slower to reflect reality when inflation picks up.

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"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Yup.

For the last year the GOP has been disingenuously blaming Biden for global inflation, will they now give him credit for bringing it under control?

Markets are loving this. Dow futures up 800 points. Market opens in 5 minutes

just looking at the CPI figures for 2021 - the real time instantaneous rate of change right now is very close to that in early 2021.

i am sure i saw somewhere that shelter cost reductions take longer to get through the CPI calculations as only 1 in 6 regions are included each month.

odd that the markets love 0.4% in October but hated 0.4% month on month in Sep.

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And the question remains. where were you.

You are correct, they lag by several months. Shelter also makes up about 50% of the current inflation numbers so changes have an outsized affect. Shelter is negatively affected by higher interest rates so they Fed has a delicate balancing act.

Windy claimed that economies like the UK were weathering this storm better than the U.S. Of course he was wrong as usual

Driven by higher gas and electricity prices, UK inflation for October came in at 11.1% (annual), a 41-year high and up from the prior month’s 10.1%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/...ldgroups/october2022

Meanwhile after 2 years of constant inflation, food prices are finally dropping. The FAO food-coat index is about to turn negative on an annual % basis for first time since mid-2020. And the price of many foodstuffs, from chickpeas to salmon to palm oil, is already falling.

https://www.bloomberg.com/...r_19016770#xj4y7vzkg

US Q4 GDP +2.9% .... strong growth.


Jobless claims at a near-record low of 186K.... that's a strong labor market.

GDP Q4 2022: U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom (cnbc.com)

The folks who want Americans to suffer because it might help them politically are very disappointed today.

and the CPI numbers from July through Dec 2022 have been 0, 0.1,0.4, 0.4, 0.1 and (- 0.1)......so a total of 0.9% in 6 months. I'm no Fed Level economist but that looks to be a rate of 1.8% on an annualized basis.

Maybe time to leave interest rates alone for a while and see if the low CPI holds.

Don't know what the Fed are looking at that convinces them that even higher interest rates are needed to control inflation.

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And the question remains. where were you.

lots of good indicators coming down right now. Those in charge should be commended for it. Starting with and including Biden.

......oil prices back down to levels similar to pre-covid, and natural gas prices down loads - back to where they were 4 or 5 years ago.

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And the question remains. where were you.

Just quoting so I can double check who posted this later in case I’m getting sick or something lol.

it's not that hard to give an administration credit when something is going in the right direction and to rip them when they've done something (in your opinion) incorrectly.

it's only in places like this room with people who have to believe "their side" is right all the time that this is not possible.

that's what a forum like this should be for. People to be able to express their opinions and viewpoints. People to be able to criticize and praise the same people for different things.

it's just devolved into a handful of people who need to have "their side" be constantly right and to diminish the views of others in order to validate their own.

It is for me. I think we give way too much credit/blame to celebrity politicians for broad macroeconomic forces with many causative factors.

6%

More bad news for the Republicans. How will they spin this?

The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation.

'https://apnews.com/...bc29d37939730039d1bb'

In my small corner of the economy, commercial construction, we are taking a beating.

The dramatic increase in interest rates has brought construction to a screeching halt in many sectors such as office, multifamily, and data centers.
Fortunately we also work in Healthcare and primary education. Those sectors are fairly recessionproof.

any developer starting new construction, class a-ish office product since spring 2022 is not very smart to begin with.

do you do industrial?

I'm in commercial construction as well and we do a mix of office (both tenant interiors and new construction), life sciences, industrial and high-tech. New office construction is basically non-existent and TI is slow but even in down economies it never really goes away since it's driven by lease cycles. Large, high-end TI projects are few and far between though. Life science work has definitely slowed as it seems the market here (Boston area) is finally saturated with inventory. Lots of developers and owners spent the last few years converting their vacant or underleased office buildings to lab buildings and now there is more supply than demand. Our hottest market right now is the tech-industrial intersection - robotics, battery development, etc.

We have done a little.
While not technically industrial, we just picked up a large, temporary housing for an industrial/tech company.
We are looking to expand our life sciences market.

I work in filling those buildings with furniture. There is a lot of work space musical chairs going on right now which is keeping the industry afloat, but nobody knows what the future looks like.

The Biden admin will continue to do an awful job with messaging no matter how good the economy is, so won't need the republicans and their misinformation and distractions. 2.4% growth, inflation falling to 3.0%, extremely low employment (highest number of jobs/workers ever) and yet Biden only has a 40% approval rating on the economy.

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And the question remains. where were you.