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Re: Putin and nukes [DarkSpeedWorks] [ In reply to ]
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DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
spudone wrote:
DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
Thanks, I read that. Given how heavily Putin and Russia have already been penalized by the rest of the world, why would he not think that using a couple of small nukes in Ukraine will be a problem? (more of a problem than all of the many, many problems he has so far)

Remember, if he loses in Ukraine, his reign over the Russian people is over. Most likely Putin will face execution. I think he will do a lot (including using nuclear bombs on a perceived enemy) to avoid that. As you clearly point out above in your last post.


Reference post #77. A nuke of any kind doesn't help him win.
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How does a tactical nuke benefit Russia? It doesn't.

Just like we did to Japan in WWII, it gets the total surrender of Ukraine.

Long-term it will be very complicated for Russa, but short-term, Ukraine surrenders. To save themselves from annihilation.

And, to himself and to Russian war mongers, Putin looks like a winner. (Admittedly a super evil winner. But still a winner.)


That said, I hope that I am totally wrong.


What has happened in the last 7 months that is making you think Ukraine surrenders if a nuke is dropped? The only way they surrender is if there is no more Ukraine.

They full well know if a nuke is deployed, they’re going to get more military help than anyone has probably seen before.

As someone mentioned, the USS Gerald Ford battle group will be in the med in a matter of a couple weeks. Which means that will be two US Carriers in strike distance of Ukraine.

If we went with a conventional response, cruise missiles would be launched almost immediately and targeted at any Russian AA type positions. Any in flight aircraft would be able to engage nearly immediately, In tandem the two US Carriers would be launching planes along with Italys and Frances Carriers that are also in the gulf. The USAF would be also sending off planes from Germany. Along with any other NATO countries who also are planned to be in the first round response. Air superiority would be achieved in the matter of a couple hours, most of that being flight time to get there.

The Ukraine military has turned away what was supposedly the second best military in the world. With a bunch of stuff western equipment that isn’t even our best stuff l. All While the whole world thought Kyiv would be captured in a few days. Surrender?? Shit, they full know what would be coming to help.

Japan in WW2 is a different scenario, they were on the verge of losing. Ukraine is on the verge of winning. Although a big punch it wouldn’t knock them out. Assuming it’s tactical not strategic nuclear weapon.
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Re: Putin and nukes [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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ThisIsIt wrote:
DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
Either one is possible.

Killing is a way of life in Russia.

People who live in Russia know that there is no effective rule of law in Russia. I know, I talk to Russians (who are in Russia) frequently. It is a police state. And they know it. No, it is not Somalia, but there is no rule of law. There is just rule of the powerful. And rule of the wealthy. And rule of the connected. And rule of the connected criminals.


I guess we're just going to have to disagree on the meaning of "no".

Can we instead not agree on what we feel the ideal scenario is for "rule of law" is in civilized democratic society?

Russia has rule of law. Iran has rule of law. The US has rule of law. So does Denmark. The Fremen in Dune had rule of law.

Of those societies, which rule of law would I wish to live under?
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Re: Putin and nukes [burnthesheep] [ In reply to ]
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burnthesheep wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
Either one is possible.

Killing is a way of life in Russia.

People who live in Russia know that there is no effective rule of law in Russia. I know, I talk to Russians (who are in Russia) frequently. It is a police state. And they know it. No, it is not Somalia, but there is no rule of law. There is just rule of the powerful. And rule of the wealthy. And rule of the connected. And rule of the connected criminals.


I guess we're just going to have to disagree on the meaning of "no".


Can we instead not agree on what we feel the ideal scenario is for "rule of law" is in civilized democratic society?

Russia has rule of law. Iran has rule of law. The US has rule of law. So does Denmark. The Fremen in Dune had rule of law.

Of those societies, which rule of law would I wish to live under?

I think so, we all probably agree we prefer the rule of law in a Western liberal democracy. I doubt any of us know enough of the details to say if one is better than another. I certainly don't.
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Re: Putin and nukes [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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ThisIsIt wrote:
l think so, we all probably agree we prefer the rule of law in a Western liberal democracy. I doubt any of us know enough of the details to say if one is better than another. I certainly don't.

I don't know about all of those countries, but l do know enough of the details regarding Russia to know that their, ummm, "rule of law" is a total, complete, and laughable farce.

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Re: Putin and nukes [DarkSpeedWorks] [ In reply to ]
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DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
l think so, we all probably agree we prefer the rule of law in a Western liberal democracy. I doubt any of us know enough of the details to say if one is better than another. I certainly don't.


I don't know about all of those countries, but l do know enough of the details regarding Russia to know that their, ummm, "rule of law" is a total, complete, and laughable farce.

I'm referring which western liberal democracy is better or worse. I'd guess it would depend on what a person values, probably all have their pluses and minuses while still being preferable to any other type of rule of law.
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Re: Putin and nukes [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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spudone wrote:
Grantbot21 wrote:
The USAF would be also sending off planes from Germany.

Even closer from Incirlik airbase. And I'm not up to speed, but I would guess we've been flying reconnaissance out of there over the Black Sea since this war started.

I didn’t realize we had that in Turkey also. It looks like they may have a-10s, f15 and f16s stationed there. So yeah, I’m not seeing Ukraine putting up the white flag while A-10s start providing close air support.
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Re: Putin and nukes [Grantbot21] [ In reply to ]
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Grantbot21 wrote:
What has happened in the last 7 months that is making you think Ukraine surrenders if a nuke is dropped?

This is a good question. I guess l would think that many Ukrainians would fight for their homeland (as they clearly and valiantly have), but not at the price of turning their entire country into a radioactive wasteland.

That said, what matters is not what l think, but what putin thinks. I bet that he thinks that a couple of nukes will subdue the country no problem.

Whether he is right is, of course, another matter.

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Re: Putin and nukes [DarkSpeedWorks] [ In reply to ]
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DarkSpeedWorks wrote:
Grantbot21 wrote:
What has happened in the last 7 months that is making you think Ukraine surrenders if a nuke is dropped?

This is a good question. I guess l would think that many Ukrainians would fight for their homeland (as they clearly and valiantly have), but not at the price of turning their entire country into a radioactive wasteland.

That said, what matters is not what l think, but what putin thinks. I bet that he thinks that a couple of nukes will subdue the country no problem.

Whether he is right is, of course, another matter.

So would you be willing to give the US to Russia so it doesn’t turn into a radioactive wasteland? It’s the same principle just takes more nukes.

Also you have the option of yes it could turn into a radioactive wasteland or you could surrender and let the Russian military rape torture and murder you and your family. Is radioactive wasteland worse?
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Re: Putin and nukes [Grantbot21] [ In reply to ]
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Good questions.

Are you familiar with the Judgement of Solomon fable?

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Re: Putin and nukes [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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BBC -- Zelensky warns Russians are being prepared for nuclear warfare:

https://www.bbc.com/...orld-europe-63173443

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Re: Putin and nukes [burnthesheep] [ In reply to ]
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Well, this ain't good. Looks like the "uncrossable line" is getting ever so slightly closer:
https://www.theguardian.com/...r-bomb-ukraine-putin

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