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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [fulla] [ In reply to ]
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Check out his dedicated nutrition volunteer. Crazy precision.



https://whownskenya.com/...berlin-marathon-win/
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [synthetic] [ In reply to ]
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How about going 2:04:00 in 2015 with his insoles coming out the back of his shoes? Looks like Nike took a few years to perfect things.....


Last edited by: kny: Sep 26, 22 13:27
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [BigBoyND] [ In reply to ]
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BigBoyND wrote:
Skuj wrote:
Yeah, really impressive that he "went for it" on the first half - but - the result shows that 2:01ish might be his limit. Maybe he could have done 2:00:50 with a 60:30 first half? But he will soon be 38, and he knows he cannot PR forever. That's why he went "crazy" today, I think.

Maybe this WR lasts 20 years?


Sure he can't get faster forever, but he's still headed in that direction. Seems early to talk about decline when the guy set a WR yesterday...

I totally get what you are saying. But, he'll be pushing 39 if he tries this again (and I really hope he does - go out in 60:20 next time!). I just think that his tactics today reflect a certain "putting all the eggs into one basket" mentality, which feels like a final shot to me. I would love to be wrong.

Perhaps he does Boston/New York next year? He claims to want to do this at some point. I think he will three-peat in Paris 2024, like Bolt, and like Bolt, he can win when in decline, because he is that good. Bolt was never going to run anywhere near 9.58sec in 2016.

My Dream: Sub 6min 400m swim. (Current PR is 6:11.)
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [kny] [ In reply to ]
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kny wrote:
He appears fully recovered before the clock even gets to 2:02:00.

Yeah. Crazy. An interview at 2:03.

My Dream: Sub 6min 400m swim. (Current PR is 6:11.)
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [Skuj] [ In reply to ]
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Skuj wrote:
BigBoyND wrote:
Skuj wrote:
Yeah, really impressive that he "went for it" on the first half - but - the result shows that 2:01ish might be his limit. Maybe he could have done 2:00:50 with a 60:30 first half? But he will soon be 38, and he knows he cannot PR forever. That's why he went "crazy" today, I think.

Maybe this WR lasts 20 years?


Sure he can't get faster forever, but he's still headed in that direction. Seems early to talk about decline when the guy set a WR yesterday...


I totally get what you are saying. But, he'll be pushing 39 if he tries this again (and I really hope he does - go out in 60:20 next time!). I just think that his tactics today reflect a certain "putting all the eggs into one basket" mentality, which feels like a final shot to me. I would love to be wrong.

Perhaps he does Boston/New York next year? He claims to want to do this at some point. I think he will three-peat in Paris 2024, like Bolt, and like Bolt, he can win when in decline, because he is that good. Bolt was never going to run anywhere near 9.58sec in 2016.

My theory is that by going 59:XX during the first half, the last pacer could only make it up to 25 km at that pace (that by itself is one hell of a performance). If he could dial it back to a 60:30, maybe he could keep that guy up to 28-30 km and maybe go sub 2:01. But then again, we are pushing the limits of what the best runners in the world can do (i.e. lead 30 km at 2:50/km pace). You would need someone like Bekele to pace him, which is not realistic. Another option is to put more pacers so that the final pacer can remain tucked behind other pacers until 20-25 km. If they can figure out a way to have someone in front of Kipchoge all the way up to say 32 km, I think he can go sub 2 for sure.
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [Engner66] [ In reply to ]
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Engner66 wrote:
Skuj wrote:
BigBoyND wrote:
Skuj wrote:
Yeah, really impressive that he "went for it" on the first half - but - the result shows that 2:01ish might be his limit. Maybe he could have done 2:00:50 with a 60:30 first half? But he will soon be 38, and he knows he cannot PR forever. That's why he went "crazy" today, I think.

Maybe this WR lasts 20 years?


Sure he can't get faster forever, but he's still headed in that direction. Seems early to talk about decline when the guy set a WR yesterday...


I totally get what you are saying. But, he'll be pushing 39 if he tries this again (and I really hope he does - go out in 60:20 next time!). I just think that his tactics today reflect a certain "putting all the eggs into one basket" mentality, which feels like a final shot to me. I would love to be wrong.

Perhaps he does Boston/New York next year? He claims to want to do this at some point. I think he will three-peat in Paris 2024, like Bolt, and like Bolt, he can win when in decline, because he is that good. Bolt was never going to run anywhere near 9.58sec in 2016.


My theory is that by going 59:XX during the first half, the last pacer could only make it up to 25 km at that pace (that by itself is one hell of a performance). If he could dial it back to a 60:30, maybe he could keep that guy up to 28-30 km and maybe go sub 2:01. But then again, we are pushing the limits of what the best runners in the world can do (i.e. lead 30 km at 2:50/km pace). You would need someone like Bekele to pace him, which is not realistic. Another option is to put more pacers so that the final pacer can remain tucked behind other pacers until 20-25 km. If they can figure out a way to have someone in front of Kipchoge all the way up to say 32 km, I think he can go sub 2 for sure.

I am not following marathon running well enough, but is Bekele still in 2:02 range? In that case, you pay both guys to race each other, but also pace each other to 37km and arrive there on sub 2 pace and give them both a bigger paycheck getting to 37km at sub 2 pace, than the final incremental payout of going sub 2. Then both are incentived to stay together and help each other, get to 37km holding 2:50 then they can open up a 5000m track meet to try to take it sub 2. Ideally they go out at 60:30 and keep more pacers hanging on to 32km before they do 32km to 37km pacing each other.
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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on talk of pacing by others.... i wonder who is the fastest solo unassisted runner. I think it would have to be Yuki Kawauchi , who has won some low key races in under 2:20 . Outside of the kenyans, lots of japenese runners made good showings at berlin

http://www.coupleofathletes.com
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [mitchrapp] [ In reply to ]
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I am surprised they are allowed to follow the course, and do it so close to the athletes. Sooner or later drama will unfold.
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [Engner66] [ In reply to ]
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Engner66 wrote:
You would need someone like Bekele to pace him, which is not realistic.

With Ineos as his sponsor, you don't think Bekele would do it for any sum of money?

I do hope we see something like this. Top10 marathoners as pacers for Kipchoge and Bekele. That would be something. There is some time left to pull it off, but not much. Especially since the weather has to agree. If Kipchoge doesn't run sub 2, we may not see it in our lifetimes.

If the sub 2 attempt hadn't rotated pacers, would it have been WR eligible?
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [BigBoyND] [ In reply to ]
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BigBoyND wrote:

If the sub 2 attempt hadn't rotated pacers, would it have been WR eligible?

also water bottles cannot be moving, must be given from a stationary person (thus the bike guy stopping)

http://www.coupleofathletes.com
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [BigBoyND] [ In reply to ]
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Hmm good question, I was thinking "no" because he was off by 2 seconds off the former world record and maybe he wants to race it himself, but in reality his 2:01 in Berlin is now over three years ago, with all his recent injuries maybe it was not a good example to choose. So maybe I would still say "no" but simply because he might not even have the fitness to pace at that speed.

Seems like a very good investment for Ineos to get the sub 2 in a legal course. Not sure how the pacers business works, but if they could get a better pacing strategy, he can definitely get it. Kipchoge seems quite resilient compared to say Kimetto who could never recover from his 2:02 in 2014, but he is also running out of seasons to do it. Maybe next year..
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [Engner66] [ In reply to ]
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Engner66 wrote:
2018, no super shoes in my view (4% are not in the league of the Next % of Alphafly's in my view). Kipchoge ran 2:01:39. He did not collapse as you falsely claim that people were doing before super shoes.

Better argument:

2014, no super shoes (well, Adidas boost flats, which were "fast" and in my view faster than say Hyperspeeds) Kimetto ran 2:02:57. Same, he seems collected and did not collapse as you falsely claim.

Not arguing that these shoes aren't faster than old hsoes, but if we choose 2014 as a reference as you might prefer, the speed has improved about 1.3%. How much is the shoes vs Kipchoge being fitter than Kimetto, well not sure we will ever find out.


Kipchoge and a few other Nike athletes started using the 4% in 2016, or at least a prototype version of it. Galen Rupp, Flanagan and Amy Craigg used them at he 2016 Olympic trials in LA and Eliud used them at London. They really stirred controversy when they had them at he 2016 Rio games. That was the first time we saw the thick midsole Nikes, which eventually ended up being the Vaporfly 4%.

In 2018, Eliud used the Nike Vaporfly Elite, which at the time was only available to handful of elite athletes. Nike sold a handful of them for like $1500. Those eventually became the Vaporfly Next%.. or closely resembled them. Supposedly the Vaporfly Elites were one-off built for each athlete with "tuned" carbon plates based on body weight and other factors, but that's not confirmed. Regardless, the first WR in 2018 was definitely with the ZoomX, carbon plate Nike shoes.

I think the fastest marathon Kichoge ran pre-SuperShoe was the 2015 Berlin marathon in 2:04.00. One advantage he has over others is the Breaking2 event, where he ran behind pacers with new shoes, a pace car, closed course and did 2:00.25. The mental advantage you'd have going into Berlin, knowing you have run 2:00.25 before (in Breaking2) has to be massive. Breaking barriers is such a common topic in endurance sports and mental training... so there's probably as much to that as there is to any pair of shoes. The dude pushed himself to a 1:59 marathon. Surely he pulls up to the start line knowing what he is capable of. That's huge.
Last edited by: phoenixR34: Sep 26, 22 20:48
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Re: Sub 2 on the cards in Berlin [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I really do think 2:00:45 ish is/was Kipchoge's limit in Berlin. I think he had that in him on Sunday, but the first half took care of that.

I'd love to be wrong, but Bekele will never run sub 2:04 again. I'm aware that he recently did a 61min HM in his buildup to this weekend's London Marathon, but we are already hearing from his agent that he was slightly sick recently, and this buildup wasn't anywhere near perfect. I smell a DNF, or perhaps even a DNS.

My Dream: Sub 6min 400m swim. (Current PR is 6:11.)
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