My prediction, based on three things (among others):

1. It's going to be a non-wetsuit swim (for the PROs only - don't panic, age groupers).
2. Frodeno says he's not in top shape but he's no longer alluding to a potential DNF. His less-than-perfect preparation is most likely to show in the latter half of the run. Meanwhile Ditlev has become a legit runner. Lange - among the top 3 runners in 140.6 if not #1. Long is obviously a very good runner but less of a threat due to his swim (and point 3 below).
3. Media motos pulling the race leader (and any train behind him) on the bike.

So: Frodeno goes out super hard on the swim to put air between himself and Ditlev and Lange (as well as others) before they get on the bikes. He can't be pulling anyone and relying on his marathon for the win. As well, his Achilles hasn't prevented him from doing quality swim training (once the snows melted on the ski slopes of Andorra). Frodeno is the only one getting the moto pull. He gets to T2 at least 5 minutes ahead of the chase pack, which includes Ditlev and Lange. The rest will depend on how far away he is from his top run shape, but my bet is that Lange will catch Frodo and win the finish while Ditlev stays about a minute back.

1. Lange
2. Frodeno
3. Ditlev

Alternative scenario: same, but Ditlev and Lange wait for Long on the bike so that they can share the workload (Lange doesn't feel confident enough to chase Frodeno, and Ditlev has been a tad more conservative on the bike as of late - part of his run improvement). The ultimate beneficiary of this 'conservative' approach will be Jan Frodeno. Then it's 1. Frodeno 2. Lange 3. Long/Ditlev in a sprint finish.

No idea if Bradley Weiss will be a factor here. He's raced two 140.6s in his career, both in South Africa, neither with a full swim. His middle distance record doesn't tell me mich.

Going to be a cracking race either way.

Women: Anne Haug demolishes the field, and with all due respect to Fenella et al., they remain a sort of an afterthought.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Usually in Roth some of the race favourites have a lot of "traffic" around them regardless of whether they're in the lead or not so leaders will probably not be the only ones getting a pull in this race. It's a fast race for a reason..

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

Jan appears to have entered Long's race mohawk game 😂 always winding up

What-the-athletes-said-at-the-press-conference
https://www.challenge-family.com/...ep-press-conference/

@smallhips: I would respectfully disagree. The Roth field seems considerably weaker than Kona will be. For sure Jan/Patrick/Ditlev/Long/ the Brazilian, etc. are all top of the top, but with the possible exception of Long, they will all be at Kona.

Jan will probably prove me wrong, but the three best IM triathletes in the world right now, LS and the Bergen boys, won’t be in Roth but will be at Kona….

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

EXACTLY what Bjorn said... if Lange, Ditliev Long etc. are not with Frodeno & Kyle Smith they WILL have motos with them. (most of ya'll forgot about Kyle Smoth pretty quick ;-)

Great point Bjorn!

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Dave Latourette
http://www.TTENation.com

given Smith trains with frodo, I'm curious to see how the race unfolds for them. will they work together? has Jan given him some key tips?

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Germans on motos will pull a Dane and an American so that they can catch a German legend?

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Looks like he couldn't hold the wheel after all.

'

You jinxed Jan !!!!

Been thinking about this, and I'm pretty sure Jan's exit from Roth at 3k was pre-planned (despite what he may have said pre-race about only racing if fully fit) and this was just a training day for him and to see where some for the competition are at while his achilles is not fully recovered:

1. Hammered the swim and bike (not that he's not capable of that anyway);
2. Was super relaxed in T2 even when volunteers lost his bag for a good 30s (why get stressed about it if you know you're not going to finish);
3. His run form looked pretty normal for him in the first few km's - no sign of tightness or limp.
4. Conveniently most of his support team happened to be waiting for him right at the spot where he pulled out.
5. Didn't look overly upset / concerned - a few shoulder shrugs and pointing to his calf to his team (almost a bit of posturing for the cameras to me).

I'm guessing the achilles was not 100%, so planned a tough Swim/Bike training day with a little 3k run effort to see how things feel. And play a few mind-games with competition about his fitness / injury ahead of Kona.

i have no insight into whether it was pre-planned, but it would also be a good way to mollify some sponsors. roth is absolutely huge in germany, and jan hasn't had much publicity in a long while. a win would be great, but showing up, doing press, and leading the race for 5+ hours is still pretty nice.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

I'm struggling to see LS as one of the top 3 IM triathletes in the world now or otherwise.

i mean, he's currently #2

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Because he definitely is not. But the social media game plays a big role in triathlon fans' minds. PTO currently has him ranked 5th, and that's ahead of Skipper and Frodeno, which we know is just a timing/PTO point thing. Let's also see what happens when the young guys start delivering (Funk, Baekkergard, Angert) on the big stage. Sanders' weak swim may cause him to drop out of the top 10 at full distance.

Realistically, finishing 5th at a race where all the big guys show up would be a great result for him. He has better podium chances at 70.3 distance if again all the big guys show up.

maybe if you have no inside then dont post ....
apart from blummefeld i dont think anybody comes close to exposure , he did an solo ironman 2020 that was huge and there is data on the interweb thats shows for sponsors frodeno sandes was pretty much the same value than winning kona 2019 for sponsors in terms of media tv exposure etc.
he gets articles in the biggest papers in germany .

tv https://www.google.com/search?
q=jan+frodeno+ard&sxsrf=ALiCzsb_3MZY3sbpWCbZZhZSkC0xT1nzEA:1657649283972&source=lnms&tbm=vid&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwihze7l-PP4AhVlQkEAHTArD-QQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1258&bih=666&dpr=1
have a look how many pieces he has on ard and zdf which are the biggest tv stations in germany since he won kona 2019 .

using your argument kienle would have had to race as he has not even had half the exposure over covid and he did not have to race .....

i am sure sponsor stuff was a reason to race in roth as iam sure he commands a lot of money but also does a lot besides he is an investor in at least one of his sponsors so i odnt think he has to mollify there .

Technically there is only one person better than Lionel in Ironman (well at least at Ironman worlds). That was Blummefeld. Lionel beat everyone else either after the start line or before the start line. Competition is not just what happens from the gun to the finish. Most of the competition is just getting to the start line with a chance to compete and if others self detonate before, then they already lost to Blummenfeld, Lionel and Currie.

Personally I think that you are correct IF everyone shows up and shows up healthy, but both showing up and showing up healthy are part of what makes the competition on a given day a competition.

Everything else is theoretical. You can't insert theoretical athletes in real race results (even though people love to do that)

I agree, it's theoretical. And for sure the big IF about people showing up healthy can't be ignored. Kona could be a better opportunity than StG to judge who's the best since we'd expect the big names to make sure they're there.

But then there's one new criteria: with the prize money at those Challenge events, some pros may just cherry pick races to make a better living than when only IM races were around. For some Kona actually isn't appealing anymore; too expensive to go there, not enough pros get $ down the finisher list.

With the increased number of injuries post Covid, the lack of $ at IM events, will we ever see everyone show up in October? Long is already out focusing on 70.3 and Challenge overall ranking. Why would, for example, Cody Beals make the trip? (picked him because I like the guy, and he fits the category of athletes who can do very well, but not enough to make the trip worth it $ wise).

Except he couldn't beat Iden at Ironman Florida (or was it Arizona?).............

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Interesting points there. I was listening to Fredrick Funk earlier on a podcast and he said that for him there was much more cache winning one of the PTO Opens than the 70.3 worlds, because the caliber of athlete is going to be higher, and most of the Kona guys will do the PTO events and not the worlds. So it may not just be money either.

Money rules the world of the pros anyway. The pros get a lot of money for competing in PTO events (which money seems to come from the patron Mr. Moritz). And I read an interview with Kurt Denk, a former organizer of IM Frankfurt, who is of the opinion that indeed Challenge Roth attracted more stars than Frankfurt this year because the signing bonusses were clearly higher than those in Frankfurt.