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Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October
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My wife and I need to make a decision very soon whether we'll travel to Annecy, France at the end of October where I'm registered to do a trail ultra that's been postponed since May 2020. The main reason we are considering not going is the risk that one of us has a positive Covid test when we need to get a test 3 days before returning to the U.S. via air. We have both been fully vaccinated since early April and are comfortable wearing masks indoors whenever necessary and on the plane. I plan to determine this weekend whether I can sleep wearing an N95 mask because I'll need to sleep most of the flight to France.

We've calculated that it would likely cost us an extra $2K if we need to quarantine for 10 days in France before getting the physician letter that would let us travel back to the U.S. I can sell my number and sign up for next year's race which should be held at the end of May.

It's difficult to quantify the chances of one of us having a positive Covid test. Cases are dropping in France, a vaccine pass is required when visiting most indoor public places and will likely be required at the race expo, start line, etc., and 64% of the population is fully vaccinated. However, we will be flying to France in a plane likely containing mostly Americans.

Has anyone come across an article or other information that would help us quantify the chances of testing positive for Covid? Any other thoughts that may be helpful to us as we make our decision would be appreciated. Merci beaucoup!
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Chances of catching covid on a plan are extraordinarily rare.
You don't even need an N95 mask.

Unless your spending time in busy indoor places, you're chance of catching covid while traveling (especially since you are vaxed) is minimal.

Go. Run.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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I have done two plane flights, no problem with the N95 mask at all. Just sit back and relax. And on the other front, being vaccinated means you are way less likely to get Covid, and even if you do, will probably be mild. All 3 of my kids got covid in school recently, and for sure my wife and I have it too, but thus far we have tested 3 times and all came up negative. My inlaws got it too, both tested negative at first, but since grandpa tested positive. So with the vaccine you are a lot less likely to test positive, even if you have it.

I'm guess it is some battle between your immune system and the virus that just doesnt show up on the normal PCR test. I tested again yesterday so will see again tomorrow, but wife's test came back already negative. And she is quite sick, no taste or smell sense, and been in a house with active and positive kids...Go figure..

Roll the dice, most likely you will be ok no matter what happens..But take every single precaution you can, this delta is a Wiley MF'er.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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This is a super interesting Q, IMO. We are not asking about the odds of getting symptoms or getting really sick - or worse - we are asking about the odds of testing positive. I just wrote a message to my lab - I lead a research team at a US university. So, first bit of data - if you Google 'dashboard' and choose your university, many will have some public disclosure about the number of positives per week. Here's my institution's covid positives. Last week, 83 positives representing 0.40% of the vaxxed and 0.89% of the unvaxxed. It's doubtful that this tells the whole story for the OP's Q, though. The vaccine can not prevent virus from binding to cells - it can only generate a more effective response to infection. So, I strongly suspect that many more vaxxed folks are infected and will test positive in the absence of symptoms than are reported in this type of data, based on the proportion of vaxxed folks infected and having enough symptoms to be tested (or are close contacts in environments where close contacts are tested). Really, it seems as if vaxxed will test positive at about the same rate as the unvaxxed (presuming that all unvaxxed and infected are sick enough to be tested and are positive). Long story short...in the academic environment of my US university, I suspect that the odds of testing positive - vaxxed or unvaxxed are on the order of 0.9% per week - if we tested everyone. Round it up...1/100 per week. If quarantine will happen if either of the OP's party of two test positive and their exposures are significantly different, then quarantine odds are 1/50 per week (again, based on the university experience, different than flights, hotels, restaurants, France, etc.). So, overall, probably between 1/100 and 1/50, closer to 1/100. How's that for a wild guess?
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [giorgitd] [ In reply to ]
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That's the best wild guess I've been provided. Thanks!
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Can you not get travel insurance that covers extension costs to a trip due to covid? I made sure I had that before going to Mexico in May as that was my main worry too.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Island] [ In reply to ]
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Island wrote:
Can you not get travel insurance that covers extension costs to a trip due to covid? I made sure I had that before going to Mexico in May as that was my main worry too.

Yes, but my wife thinks the cost of the insurance (around $400 from the research I did) is too high for the potential additional cost to us (approx. $2000) from a delayed return to the U.S.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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This is anecdotal, take it for what it's worth:

My wife (originally from Denmark) and my two sons, age 10 and 6, flew to Denmark from Chicago this summer in order to visit her mother. My wife is vaccinated... obviously, my sons are not. We took a calculated risk they would be ok.

They spent three weeks in Denmark. Visited lots of places (always wearing masks), saw a ton of people (friends, family), did lots of things. Had a wonderful time.

They were fine.

Here's another anecdote:

I work in agriculture, in the Midwest. For 2020 and 2021, I have had to travel to the hottest of hot spots - from Arkansas to Missouri to North Dakota. I have had to attend events both outdoors - and many indoors. With lots of people. Who don't believe in wearing masks. But I have always done my best to distance, etc. I get PCR tests every time I come back home. I've had 21 tests in last 14 months. All negative (was fully vaccinated by mid-March).

So do I think you can go to France for an ultra race, distance yourself from most people while you're there, etc and be ok? Yes, I do.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Obviously no way to know, of course, your chances are small I would think if you act reasonably. IMO being in a plane is fine

That said, if you absolutely cannot afford that time and money, then.... Because there is always "a chance"

If you can afford it, then....
Last edited by: ChrisM: Sep 17, 21 15:53
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Looking at the odds (ref.: https://www.nlr.org/...a-on-board-aircraft/ ) there is probably a 1:4000 chance of getting Covid on a given flight (rough est.). Let's call it 1:2000 since if either of you tests positive you're sol. That would put the risk adjusted value of insurance at $1 ($2 round trip). If you can self insure (i.e. you can afford the $2k if it comes to that) it makes sense to vs. buying insurance.

Realistically, you can significantly reduce these odds by using N95 masks for the flight, and when you cannot socially distance in the airport. Also, avoid indoor dining and non-socially-distanced outdoor dining and your odds of getting Covid are <<1% for the trip.

On the flight, only lift your mask momentarily to take a swig of water or a bite of energy bar (i.e. don't remove your mask for 15min for a meal mid-flight). Try to do these at times when those close to you are not maskless (i.e. during meals or drink service).

ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)
Last edited by: Titanflexr: Sep 17, 21 17:13
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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I have traveled extensively all over the US and abroad for work, through the pandemic. I just came back from a personal trip to visit family in France. I have been tested many times and always negative.

I don't have any direct answer to your question, as far as quantifying the chances of testing positive. But, I think you can minimize your chances by following recommended rules of distancing, masking and hand washing.

I also recommend your research how to get the EU QR code which will make your life easier in France (We were asked to show it twice, once at a restaurant and once at a hotel). The best info I got was through the French consulate Facebook page.

Good luck, have a great race and don't hesitate to reach out if you need help with anything.
Last edited by: Trirunner: Sep 17, 21 17:26
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Trirunner] [ In reply to ]
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I think your focus should not be on the chance you get infected but rather the consequences that you would face when you are and if you are able to deal with them.

I DNS an IM70.3 in Denmark in june as i was not vaccinated yet, my insurance would not cover anything as denmark was labbeled orange code and quarantine would probably get me in trouble with work.

I'm flying to spain in a couple weeks to do another IM70.3. Code is yellow this time so i have full insurance. Also, i have been fully vaccinated now and can enter spain and re-enter the Netherlands without having to test. My QR code is sufficient.

I would also advise you get a QR code to prove you are vaccinated. You would need it to get into restaurants et cetera in france. I have understood that it varies per region but in some regions in france they check your QR for almost everything... (Alternative would be getting a PCR test every 2 days...)

Having said all that, i hope you will be able to go.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [giorgitd] [ In reply to ]
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giorgitd wrote:
So, overall, probably between 1/100 and 1/50, closer to 1/100. How's that for a wild guess?
I think this is the right order of magnitude for the one-week risk though in statistical decision theory you also need to know something about the loss function. (Here we're talking about "decision" loss, not the "training" loss used in machine-learning).
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks everyone for the responses. I really appreciate it. Annecy is maybe my wife's favorite place but she's hesitant to make the trip because she doesn't want to visit when she is worrying about catching Covid. Since the race is Oct. 30 we'd probably be eating indoors in restaurants nearly every day during our trip and the required health pass to eat in restaurants isn't enough to lessen her worries. If I was traveling solo, I'd be getting take out and food from the grocery and eating in the hotel room or outside whenever that was an option.

Hopefully, we'll be in a better place re: the pandemic in late May next year.

I was successful in falling asleep while wearing the N95 mask. :)
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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I am French and quite familiar with the Alps region where my parents live. Below my gut feeling on your story:

Current vaccination rates for the Annecy region in France is 75% (that includes children, so in reality, 80%+ of the adults are vaccinated). Weekly very detailed data available here : https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/...du-16-septembre-2021

The Alps are a generally conservative region, where locals tend to follow the rules strictly, including all the prevention measures (kind of like Switzerland, and very unlike the South of France). It's a region where people wear masks and most of them are vaccinated or will be soon enough. The number of cases is dropping dramatically there.
And if I am not mistaken, race participants need to show a proof of vaccination or very recent negative covid test

I think the chances that you get covid are very low given your plans. But then, as they say, "anything is possible"

It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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We had 7000 cases in France today.

Masks are still compulsory and you have to be double vaccinated to eat in restaurants/cafes and go into bars etc.

I would say you chances are much lower in France than usa.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [SheridanTris] [ In reply to ]
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is vaccination required to work in a restaurant ?
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [marcag] [ In reply to ]
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marcag wrote:

is vaccination required to work in a restaurant ?
Nope.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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RChung wrote:
marcag wrote:

is vaccination required to work in a restaurant ?

Nope.

I am sure there is an epidemiological explanation for why the only person I would come into contact with is the one that isn't obliged to be vaccinated.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [marcag] [ In reply to ]
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so this is what society is devolved into. Quit over thinking and live your life. You could trip down the stairs in a minute and tear your ACL, or get hit by a car on your bike ride, worrying about catching a cold on travel is the least of your worries, I travel every 2 weeks cross country in and out of airports planes etc. havent gotten any colds
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Hollywood_USAF] [ In reply to ]
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Hollywood_USAF wrote:
so this is what society is devolved into. Quit over thinking and live your life. You could trip down the stairs in a minute and tear your ACL, or get hit by a car on your bike ride, worrying about catching a cold on travel is the least of your worries, I travel every 2 weeks cross country in and out of airports planes etc. havent gotten any colds

Bravo. Good for you.

The OP asked what his chance of testing positive is. It doesn't sound like he is afraid of dying, sounds like he doesn't want to be stuck in a foreign country. He believes his biggest risk is restaurants. So it's a simple question of what is the risk in a restaurant. The fact that the only person you are in contact with is not vaccinated is relevant to the answer.

Is this what society is devolved into ? People think they they need to editorialize when someone asks a simple question. Quit over thinking what people are thinking and live your life.
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [marcag] [ In reply to ]
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marcag wrote:
Hollywood_USAF wrote:
so this is what society is devolved into. Quit over thinking and live your life. You could trip down the stairs in a minute and tear your ACL, or get hit by a car on your bike ride, worrying about catching a cold on travel is the least of your worries, I travel every 2 weeks cross country in and out of airports planes etc. havent gotten any colds

Bravo. Good for you.

The OP asked what his chance of testing positive is. It doesn't sound like he is afraid of dying, sounds like he doesn't want to be stuck in a foreign country. He believes his biggest risk is restaurants. So it's a simple question of what is the risk in a restaurant. The fact that the only person you are in contact with is not vaccinated is relevant to the answer.

Is this what society is devolved into ? People think they they need to editorialize when someone asks a simple question. Quit over thinking what people are thinking and live your life.

Well if he’s worried stay home and wonder ahoulda woulda coulda. You could have minded your own business as well lol
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Hollywood_USAF] [ In reply to ]
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Hollywood_USAF wrote:
so this is what society is devolved into. Quit over thinking and live your life. You could trip down the stairs in a minute and tear your ACL, or get hit by a car on your bike ride, worrying about catching a cold on travel is the least of your worries, I travel every 2 weeks cross country in and out of airports planes etc. haven't gotten any colds


Have I written anything in this thread about being scared of getting physically ill from Covid? You can call us cheap and/or too devoted to our jobs because we're worried about getting a positive Covid test that would require us to quarantine for an extra 10 days in France before we can return to the U.S. but you made it up in your head that I started this thread because I was scared of feeling physically ill because I caught Covid. I want to go to France to run, at age 62, a 50-mile trail ultra in the Alps with 16K+ of ascent and 16K+ of descent and the first 8 hours of the race will be in the dark. I've had multiple shoulda woulda coulda discussions with my wife this weekend.

How many times have you been required to get tested for a "cold" to return to the U.S. during your trips? That's what my question concerned.
Last edited by: Mark Lemmon: Sep 19, 21 18:01
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Hollywood_USAF] [ In reply to ]
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so this is what society is devolved into//

Apparently so, thanks for showing us the depth to which we have sank...
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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Most of us got your point.
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