j p o wrote:
windywave wrote:
BCtriguy1 wrote:
windywave wrote:
BCtriguy1 wrote:
It is supposed to go down... That's what we keep hearing.
It always shocks me when I go to pick up an armload of framing lumber and the bill is like $500. With lumber costs this high, and labour so expensive (typical trades charge in the $60-100/hr range) I have no idea how people afford to build anything. I was going to build a modest garden shed this summer and the material was going to be close to $4000 freaking dollars. I'll wait until next year. Lumber is 65% off of its highs I haven't ordered material in a few weeks but last time I did prices at lumber yards hadn't dropped yet. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LB.1 Maybe, maybe not.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/lumber-price-impact-housing-market
"While the recent drop in lumber prices is a positive development, the lumber crisis is far from over," said Jerry Howard, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders.
But Howard said most builders have been unable to take advantage of the lower prices as producers are still selling lumber that was purchased when prices were at record highs. Additionally, sawmill output continues to lag demand.
"If supply does not increase fast enough to meet demand, we may find ourselves in the same situation as last November, when lumber prices posted a similar steep reduction only to reverse course and move to record-high levels," he said.
The issue is that futures at 1k board feet are strictly speaking of dimensional lumber say 2x4, 2x8 etc. Up here that represents at best about 20% of the total lumber cost of a house.
Sheet goods and other engineered products would *typically* follow the end and flow of soft wood futures…except currently all individual lumber classes are detached from each other. (And reality)
For example 2x4 may have tripled or 4x but a sheet of OSB has gone up almost 700%…basically because a resin factory in Texas burnt up during the ice storm.
Engineered beams like parallam (think a 4x12) osb beam or an LVL (think a plywood beam) are basically impossible to get right now.
Maurice