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Re: Irony [trail] [ In reply to ]
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That ratio comes from CDC. They estimate 4.6 actual cases (IIRC) for every reported case. I used 3x to 5x to soften it. That range I quoted is probably trustworthy. Whether it leads to fewer infections is on the hypothesis end a d aligns with your comments. It the fact is, a huge percentage of the US population has either had Covid or had at least one vaccine shot (and some both).
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Re: Irony [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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“To help you understand context, probably 30% to 50% of Floridians have had Covid. They have vaccinated about 33% of their population with at least one dose. It is statistically improbable that they will see a material surge, “

Did you know that the J and J vaccine is only 20% effective against the SA strain of covid? Or that having had a native covid infection doesn’t confer any immunity at all against that strain? Or that monoclonal antibody therapy doesn’t work against it either?

I think there is a false sense of security out there.

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Re: Irony [Triingtotrain] [ In reply to ]
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Triingtotrain wrote:
BikenSki wrote:
Triingtotrain wrote:
riverdaledad wrote:
... I am extremely disappointed in our society for the blatant apathy towards so much death as a result of virus... .

A pictures worth a 1000 words. Grab a tape measure and extend it to 100 inches. Go to the other end and count out 3 of those small vertical bars(3/16"). In proportion, that's the number of deaths in the USA compared to the total population of the USA represented by the 100 inches. Take a nice long look at the other 99 13/16" of the tape - that's a visual representation of the number of people that are still alive. Any death is one too many - but to characterize it as "so much death" is disingenuous at best.


Agree 1000% any death is too many.

But to judge my intentions and sentiments as disingenuous is extremely insulting. I will refrain from unpleasantries as STers love to bash each other. But don't be so quick to judge as you know nothing about me. I'm on your side. I care about every single death. Every person matters.

Nice try. No where did I judge your intentions and sentiments, just your use of "so much death". The flu pandemic of 1918 and its 50 million deaths is more in line with "so much death" as are heart disease, cancer, and war to name a few. In terms of insulting, to make a blanket statement that you're disappointed in our society "for the blatant apathy towards so much death as a result of virus" is a direct insult to the overwhelming majority of citizens who have complied with the guidance provided by the CDC. That they all can't live up to your perceived higher standards is no reason to insult them.

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Re: Irony [tristorm] [ In reply to ]
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tristorm wrote:
Did you know that the J and J vaccine is only 20% effective against the SA strain of covid? Or that having had a native covid infection doesn’t confer any immunity at all against that strain? Or that monoclonal antibody therapy doesn’t work against it either?
Yes, I am familiar. Also, some of your statements may not be factual or low probability scenarios.
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Re: Irony [deantrives] [ In reply to ]
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deantrives wrote:
trentnix.... this post of yours is one of the best i've read.
thank you....

x2

Dimond Bikes Superfan
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Re: Irony [Traket92x] [ In reply to ]
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Here are my credentials. Masters in Public Policy from Columbia University with a focus on emergency management. Senior bio-terrorism planner at New York City Department of Health working on New York’s small pox pandemic plan. 30+ Olympic and 70.3s completed. Looking forward to safely resuming my racing in the fall.
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Re: Irony [Diablo69] [ In reply to ]
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Diablo69 wrote:
Here are my credentials. Masters in Public Policy from Columbia University with a focus on emergency management. Senior bio-terrorism planner at New York City Department of Health working on New York’s small pox pandemic plan. 30+ Olympic and 70.3s completed. Looking forward to safely resuming my racing in the fall.
So a bureaucrat, then. Explains a lot. Smallpox? Really?

You are right that you shouldn’t listen to me for triathlon advice, which is why I don’t give any. But at least I have completed a long course race once upon a time and was a USAT certified coach for a minute.

Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)
Last edited by: trentnix: Apr 9, 21 17:21
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Re: Irony [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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Well it’s what our Infectious diseases folks are telling us during the weekly covid meetings for our health authority. I’ll ask them to clarify.

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Re: Irony [BikenSki] [ In reply to ]
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Dude chill, your self righteousness is a turn off. Go argue with another random stranger tonight.

Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.
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Re: Irony [tristorm] [ In reply to ]
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1) Thanks to “bureaucrats” at public health agencies across the country, US has one of the most robust vaccination programs in world.

2) My first triathlon was Savageman. Is that legit enough for you?

3) My wife is a high school principal. I left my job to take care of my young son after schools shut down. What did you do during COVID besides trolling people on Slowtwitch?

4) A terrorist attack using smallpox would require every American to be treated within 4 days. Smallpox is one of the most contagious, deadly viruses. By planning for this worst case scenario, public health departments are better prepared when less contagious pandemics occur (COVID). This week’s Economist has a great story on smallpox if you are interested in educating yourself rather than making inane comments on Slowtwitch.
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Re: Irony [Diablo69] [ In reply to ]
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Diablo69 wrote:
1) Thanks to “bureaucrats” at public health agencies across the country, US has one of the most robust vaccination programs in world.

2) My first triathlon was Savageman. Is that legit enough for you?

3) My wife is a high school principal. I left my job to take care of my young son after schools shut down. What did you do during COVID besides trolling people on Slowtwitch?

4) A terrorist attack using smallpox would require every American to be treated within 4 days. Smallpox is one of the most contagious, deadly viruses. By planning for this worst case scenario, public health departments are better prepared when less contagious pandemics occur (COVID). This week’s Economist has a great story on smallpox if you are interested in educating yourself rather than making inane comments on Slowtwitch.
1) Thank you to those bureaucrats involved. The check is in the mail. They did a much better job than those who planned for the pandemic and managed to forget to have enough PPE available for our healthcare workers (seriously, that was a massive, massive failure of planning and execution).
2) Don't care. Don't care about your times, either (just to get out in front of it). You are the one who seemed to be concerned about triathlon resumes.
3) Worked. Created wealth. Had more children. Saved kittens from trees. The usual flyover country stuff. Sorry hear the Smallpox planning got put on hold since you decided to stay home.
4) I'm familiar with Smallpox and the threat of a Smallpox attack. I consume useless information voraciously.

Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)
Last edited by: trentnix: Apr 9, 21 18:27
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Re: Irony [trentnix] [ In reply to ]
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It is 8:30 pm in Texas and Trent is home trolling me. Can someone in the Slowtwitch world suggest some hobbies or tv shows for Trent? I will start. Hemingway on PBS is very good. There is also a Tour of Watopia coming up on Zwift.
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Re: Irony [Vols] [ In reply to ]
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Vols wrote:
I applaud the OP for this thread.

1. Make a few quick posts to rile up some folks, 2. stop responding, 3. enjoy the crap that gets thrown back and forth.

Very well done.

I think the OP might just have his mind blown, or committed suicide.
Chances of either are split down the middle...

Or maybe he ran out of his COVID tests?

Maybe every competitor should just have a surcharge added, for full vaccination of the local population?
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Re: Irony [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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exxxviii wrote:
You keep trying, but it just isn't working. You need to start with an intelligent argument that triathlon events produce material transmissions, hospitalizations, and deaths. So far, you haven't. Probably because you can't. The reality is the probabilities are much greater that the swim and bike of a triathlon will produce more hospitalizations and deaths than Covid.

The US has hosted several dozen triathlon and running events since fall of 2020. So far, I have not found anything that points to material transmission associated with a triathlon event. I am open to the possibility, so go searching. If you find something tangible, get back to us.

Here's a poor, but eye-opening proxy. Remember that massive motorcycle rally in 2020 that stayed on the headlines for about a week? The thing had almost 500K participants over 10 days. It was huge. CDC studied it. It only produced 51 primary cases, 26 secondary and tertiary cases, four hospitalizations, and 1 death. This was an outdoor event. I suspect that triathlon is less likely than this to contribute to transmission, largely because triathlon will largely be attended by well people. This is probably why you will have a very hard time finding any reports of material transmission associated with a triathlon. It probably is not there.

As mentioned, this is only for Minnesota and surveillence systems only detect a small fraction of the true cases. While Minnesota generally does a better job of investigating outbreaks than many states, it wan't like they were sequencing all test-positive samples or that Sturgis had its own unique variant.

As to whether transmission during a Tri is common, who really knows. Cycling isn't a very good example, because all the testing keeps the underlying prevalence low. Michigan hasn't been doing well and they have tons of outbreaks in their sports teams, with close to 10% of basketball teams dropping out of the play-offs because of positive cases.

My guess is that one of the biggest risks is that someone brings a new variant to town. Soemthing like the Brazilian or South African variant could make matters a bunch work. Afterall, a rapidly growing fraction of case are the U.K. variant and it isn't like viruses get anywhere without a host.
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Re: Irony [tristorm] [ In reply to ]
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If you drop a few contrary statements, it is helpful to back them by referencing some tier 1 sources, like CDC, NIH, WHO, the drug company, peer-reviewed studies. Something. Otherwise, there is a very real possibility you just misunderstood and are spreading misinformation.
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Re: Irony [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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Intermountain, Ironman, and state and local politicians are encouraging people from all over the works to come to Utah during a pandemic. Fact!!!

https://www.google.com/...aths-hospitalization
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Re: Irony [Diablo69] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Irony [trentnix] [ In reply to ]
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trentnix wrote:
Diablo69 wrote:
Here are my credentials. Masters in Public Policy from Columbia University with a focus on emergency management. Senior bio-terrorism planner at New York City Department of Health working on New York’s small pox pandemic plan. 30+ Olympic and 70.3s completed. Looking forward to safely resuming my racing in the fall.
So a bureaucrat, then. Explains a lot. Smallpox? Really?

You are right that you shouldn’t listen to me for triathlon advice, which is why I don’t give any. But at least I have completed a long course race once upon a time and was a USAT certified coach for a minute.

Not directed at you or anyone specifically but I am trying to understand why the outrage is directed at business and their respective customers, I guess if you are really pissed off why not lobby your local health authorities, politicians etc?

In a very specific legal sense every business that has been affected by this over the past year is going to jump at the first (legal/approved/insured) opportunity for revenue, and they might have customers on the other side equally willing to spend pent up cash in exchange for services or product.

Being mad at them seams a bit dante-esque..no? E-mails, phone calls to people in power might at the very least feel like you’ve done something productive.

Maurice
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Re: Irony [Diablo69] [ In reply to ]
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I am not sure I understand the point of that post and link. The world is moving forward? I agree; it is OK to move forward. We have seen dozens of races in the US demonstrate that we can conduct a race without material transmission.
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Re: Irony [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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I’m going to stand by my statements as I heard them directly from our lead infectious diseases people. The 501Y.V2 variant does have a spike protein mutation which has shown to have reduced reactivity to plasma antibodies from patients with previous covid infections

My point is/was new variants are emerging/can emerge at my time and I’m saying that it’s possible that these will make vulnerable people sick despite previous infections and vaccinations in themselves and the population around them . So social distancing/mask requirements and more drastic measures may be required for some time.

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Re: Irony [tristorm] [ In reply to ]
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Jerome Powell, Trump’s appointee to Federal Reserve, says that biggest threat to our economic recovery is jackasses who travel to Florida, Texas, Utah, etc. and race triathlons during a pandemic. Anybody check out Florida’s numbers this week?

https://www.cnn.com/...0-minutes/index.html
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Re: Irony [trentnix] [ In reply to ]
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+1
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