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Re: When will racing resume? [70Trigirl] [ In reply to ]
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70Trigirl wrote:
We have never had to vaccinate an entire population in the modern world and govt doesn't always move as quickly as we need and desire.
The situation is not as unique and dire as you might think. Don't forget that we routinely vaccinate about 50% of the population for flu every year. That is around 160M doses. To get to that magic, theoretical 80% target with a double-dose vaccination is around 510M doses. It is a big number, but not radically bigger than our BAU today. So, it is a matter of extending the infrastructure and processes we already have versus creating something all new.

It is mathematically possible to get to 80% by June with the processes already underway, which is encouraging. (We are about doubling the number of doses administered each week over the prior week.)
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Re: When will racing resume? [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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exxxviii wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
We have never had to vaccinate an entire population in the modern world and govt doesn't always move as quickly as we need and desire.
The situation is not as unique and dire as you might think. Don't forget that we routinely vaccinate about 50% of the population for flu every year. That is around 160M doses. To get to that magic, theoretical 80% target with a double-dose vaccination is around 510M doses. It is a big number, but not radically bigger than our BAU today. So, it is a matter of extending the infrastructure and processes we already have versus creating something all new.

It is mathematically possible to get to 80% by June with the processes already underway, which is encouraging. (We are about doubling the number of doses administered each week over the prior week.)

Hey I hope you are correct. I want to be vaccinated asap and want to race safely. That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).

Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.
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Re: When will racing resume? [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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I was thinking about this larger big picture of what part of human activity resumes with what part of the population vaccinated. In some areas we had racing with new protocols with zero vaccination. Depending on how hospitals are doing there, they would be the first candidate locations for racing. Then other locations should be possible especially when everyone over 70 is vaccinated. Other locations will probably want to err towards letting any business happen until younger age groups are also vaccinated.

For example UAE appears to be on track to vaccinate 50% of population by March. They have had racing going on through the winter already without a vaccine. Maybe 70.3 Dubai happens in March based on some rumours. Here in Canada, depending on who we talk to, those over 70 should be done by May. If so, hospitals should be fairly liberated of overload by May, but the question is what restrictions are removed when hospitals are empty from Covid19 by June (hopefully by then hospitals are back to normal for other medical procedures since a massive backlog has already built up)....so we may not be able to get back to less restrictions until some of the backlog is cleared too.
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Re: When will racing resume? [70Trigirl] [ In reply to ]
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70Trigirl wrote:
That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).
IMHO, this reflects the #1 problem in the US, and no one is talking about it. In the US, we only vaccinate 50% of the population and that is with constant and ongoing positive reinforcement. So, getting 80% of the population to volunteer for 2 doses is a huge incremental mountain to climb. My gut feel is we will call it a day when we get around 50% immunized. Either that, or US and private industry will force vaccinations by restricting people from society. This would really freak people out.
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Re: When will racing resume? [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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exxxviii wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).
IMHO, this reflects the #1 problem in the US, and no one is talking about it. In the US, we only vaccinate 50% of the population and that is with constant and ongoing positive reinforcement. So, getting 80% of the population to volunteer for 2 doses is a huge incremental mountain to climb. My gut feel is we will call it a day when we get around 50% immunized. Either that, or US and private industry will force vaccinations by restricting people from society. This would really freak people out.

Wrong. The number one problem is people like 70Trigirl that don't get vaccines like the flu shot because they don't think they need it.

Unless you are in no contact with others you could be at risk of contracting and spreading a virus.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Raw Vegan] [ In reply to ]
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I am confused; what do you think I am wrong about? It looks like we are in total agreement.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Raw Vegan] [ In reply to ]
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Raw Vegan wrote:
exxxviii wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).
IMHO, this reflects the #1 problem in the US, and no one is talking about it. In the US, we only vaccinate 50% of the population and that is with constant and ongoing positive reinforcement. So, getting 80% of the population to volunteer for 2 doses is a huge incremental mountain to climb. My gut feel is we will call it a day when we get around 50% immunized. Either that, or US and private industry will force vaccinations by restricting people from society. This would really freak people out.


Wrong. The number one problem is people like 70Trigirl that don't get vaccines like the flu shot because they don't think they need it.

Unless you are in no contact with others you could be at risk of contracting and spreading a virus.
Wrong. The number one problem is willingness to pretend there actually IS some simple number one problem; rather there is a major societal dysfunction that's being encouraged.

The tolerance in society for "anti-science" views, the willingness of many to accept assertions made without evidence because they like what's being said, the general increase in willingness to pretend facts are optional. These are the central issues from which almost all else stems.
Anti-vaxers - Yep
Religious zealots and extremists - Yep
Climate change deniers - Yep
Nationalist extremists - Yep
"Patriots" - Yep
Sports obsessives - Yep
Bigots - Yep
Those who think the US is the best country in the world - Yep
Those who think the US is the worst country in the world - Yep
....not a the complete list, obviously.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Ai_1 wrote:
....not a the complete list, obviously.
Haha, if you look at all of the problems at once, it is terrifying. I like my bubble of one problem at a time...
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Re: When will racing resume? [Iron Dukie] [ In reply to ]
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Iron Dukie wrote:
The 2021 Puerto Rico 70.3 was just cancelled yesterday, so it seems the 2021 cancellations have begun in the U.S. I'm glad they gave us 2+ months notice.

Does anyone have a sense of whether the two months advanced notice is unique to Puerto Rico race or is it a new Ironman policy? Traditionally races have been cancelled about a month or less before the race. I am struggling to train for IMTX because I'm doubtful about its prospects, but also hesitant to stop training in case it goes forward because I don't want to lose my (rather costly) registration. I wouldn't really mind if they pulled the plug early just so I could get out of this limbo. I'm a deferral from last year's cancelled race, so this is likely to be my second year of training for an IMTX that doesn't happen.
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Re: When will racing resume? [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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exxxviii wrote:
Ai_1 wrote:
....not a the complete list, obviously.
Haha, if you look at all of the problems at once, it is terrifying. I like my bubble of one problem at a time...
On the other hand, if you look at them in isolation, you miss seeing the real, and common, cause. The positive to draw from this is that you don't need to solve all these problems separately, you just need to encourage society to think "properly" and they'll gradually all take care of themselves. Unfortunately, in at least one case, it'll may be very hard to prevent enormous long term global damage even if it were possible to solve the problem some time soon.....
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Re: When will racing resume? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Where are the outbreaks from the races that did happen when there was no vaccine (not a direct comment to you tho your post was sorta on these lines)?

Meaning why would anything with the vaccine impact racing in 1H21?

Why would we be worried about overwhelming the system when that hasn’t been shown to happen (at least that I’m not aware of).

I get the vaccine can give everyone a sense of additional security. But don’t see why it’s needed to race.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Jnags7] [ In reply to ]
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Jnags7 wrote:
Where are the outbreaks from the races that did happen when there was no vaccine (not a direct comment to you tho your post was sorta on these lines)?

Meaning why would anything with the vaccine impact racing in 1H21?

Why would we be worried about overwhelming the system when that hasn’t been shown to happen (at least that I’m not aware of).

I get the vaccine can give everyone a sense of additional security. But don’t see why it’s needed to race.
What do you mean by "why would anything with the vaccine impact racing"? I can't figure out what that means.

Also do you have a specific region in mind when you ask about outbreaks at races, and if so, when racing ended there, what were the levels of Covid-19 and typical adherence to PPE and social distancing precautions at the time?
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Re: When will racing resume? [Raw Vegan] [ In reply to ]
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Raw Vegan wrote:
exxxviii wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).
IMHO, this reflects the #1 problem in the US, and no one is talking about it. In the US, we only vaccinate 50% of the population and that is with constant and ongoing positive reinforcement. So, getting 80% of the population to volunteer for 2 doses is a huge incremental mountain to climb. My gut feel is we will call it a day when we get around 50% immunized. Either that, or US and private industry will force vaccinations by restricting people from society. This would really freak people out.


Wrong. The number one problem is people like 70Trigirl that don't get vaccines like the flu shot because they don't think they need it.

Unless you are in no contact with others you could be at risk of contracting and spreading a virus.

Just to be clear, I'm waiting eagerly for my turn to get one of the covid19 vaccines. I'm not anti-vaccine, I just haven't gotten the flu shot in the past since I'm super healthy and live in a place that is not densely populated and haven't gotten the flu since maybe I was a kid. I can't even remember when I got the flu last. It was ages. I hardly ever get sick. I have gotten a few minor colds in the last decade, both right before a big race where my immune system was low but got better quickly. I don't consider myself the problem and don't represent those who are not going to get the covid vaccine. Please don't throw around judgements towards people you know nothing about. BTW - I'm vegan AF since 2007 and did 2 years mostly raw quite a while ago.

Again, I certainly will get the covid vaccine!!!!! It can't come soon enough!!!!

Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]
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Fishbum wrote:
What's everyone's thoughts on the chances of placid going off in late July?
A month ago I was pretty confident but this slow roll out has me wondering.

I doubt anyone will have a special insight. From my perspective the problem re:IMLP is that accommodations are generally pay upfront/no cancellation. I’m registered, but can’t bring myself to book anything.

Dimond Bikes Superfan
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Re: When will racing resume? [ericlambi] [ In reply to ]
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ericlambi wrote:
Fishbum wrote:
What's everyone's thoughts on the chances of placid going off in late July?
A month ago I was pretty confident but this slow roll out has me wondering.

I doubt anyone will have a special insight. From my perspective the problem re:IMLP is that accommodations are generally pay upfront/no cancellation. I’m registered, but can’t bring myself to book anything.

I agree. So much so that I needed to post my agreement.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Any race, any region. Where has there been a connection between a race and that race stressing the system - define system however you want (hospital capacity, ems workers, medical supplies, etc).

It seemed like a legit concern early on but as events have happened including challenge, BWR and Ironman, seems like that fear didn’t play out.

So why do we (collectively as a society) continue to think it will?

And I’m asking because I haven’t heard or seen it but I’m usually a step behind... I don’t understand why the vaccine allows us to race vs not race in 1H2021.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Jnags7] [ In reply to ]
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How many regions have mandatory quarintine time for anyone that travels? I went to Challenge Daytona in Florida and was disappointed in their registration format as the only covid issue I could see as an issue (it was mask mandatory on site for all people). People had to stand in long line for 1+ hr waiting to register. Everyone had masks on but it was certainly not very covid friendly procedure imo.


Everything else about that race I thought was very covid friendly. They did have stands by the water that people watched and some people were all sitting close to others. Masks were mandatory on site, which is good procedure.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: When will racing resume? [Jnags7] [ In reply to ]
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Jnags7 wrote:
Where are the outbreaks from the races that did happen when there was no vaccine (not a direct comment to you tho your post was sorta on these lines)?

Meaning why would anything with the vaccine impact racing in 1H21?

Why would we be worried about overwhelming the system when that hasn’t been shown to happen (at least that I’m not aware of).

I get the vaccine can give everyone a sense of additional security. But don’t see why it’s needed to race.

I roughly support what you are saying. But furthermore here in Canada 95 percent of deaths, 69 percent of ICU admissions and 63 percent of hospitalizations are from only 20 percent of Covid19 cases . This 20 percent are those over 60. Once over 60 is vaccinated looking at this data compiled by our federal govt that is available on health Canada's website, it seems that racing and other business and recreational activities can be done in an environment where impact on the medical system will be far lower.

But even without vaccinating in some venues all kinds of biz and recreation may happen inclusive of triathlons. But where I live I seriously doubt that any restrictions get lifted until hospitals get a break. Doc's are all over TV explaining how spread thin they are (rightfully so) and until the medical system clears and it's proven they won't be overwhelmed again pretty sure there is zero line of sight to racing.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Jnags7] [ In reply to ]
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Jnags7 wrote:
Any race, any region. Where has there been a connection between a race and that race stressing the system - define system however you want (hospital capacity, ems workers, medical supplies, etc).

It seemed like a legit concern early on but as events have happened including challenge, BWR and Ironman, seems like that fear didn’t play out.

So why do we (collectively as a society) continue to think it will?

And I’m asking because I haven’t heard or seen it but I’m usually a step behind... I don’t understand why the vaccine allows us to race vs not race in 1H2021.
Regions with tight travel controls and low infection rates will probably also have had no races, so little chance of evidence one way or the other. Regions with broad proliferation of infections and limited control with limited ability to conduct infection tracking, are unlikely to be making a fuss about a race, when they've plenty other issues more frequently occurring events to worry about. The fact you haven't heard about a cases being traced to races doesn't mena races are safe, or should proceed. I've seen and heard a lot of talk over the last 9 months or so with assertions that activities not demonstrated to have caused infections should be assumed safe. That's absurd, reductionist nonsense. Absence of evidence that a thing is true, does not prove it false. Do you have proof that races will NOT provide a significant risk of infection spread?

I think the concern is legitimate because any assembly of people, especially involving mixing otherwise separate populations, presents an increased risk. Yes, the fact it's outdoors will help. The fact the athletes will be solo out on the road will help. Distancing controls will help. But I don't think there is sufficient need to introduce the risk in the first place. And regardless of the athletes interaction at the event, there will still be significant travel, assembly of spectators (some of whom will not be cautious), and other activities increased by holding such an event.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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The UAE curve was quite flat up to Xmas time frame at 1000 cases per day, but in the last three weeks it has grown to 3000 cases per day (on 10M population). To date they have only had 750 deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/...nited-arab-emirates/


So there economy had been inclined to move on to business with various Covid19 protocols.


Racing with Covid19 protocols has been going on there with no vaccine starting in November. You can also travel there with a test before leaving and a test at airport (from what I understand). But with cases going up, I heard there is worry that racing may be affected.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Very good point that not proving something doesn’t makes it true.
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Re: When will racing resume? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
The UAE curve was quite flat up to Xmas time frame at 1000 cases per day, but in the last three weeks it has grown to 3000 cases per day (on 10M population). To date they have only had 750 deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/...nited-arab-emirates/


So there economy had been inclined to move on to business with various Covid19 protocols.


Racing with Covid19 protocols has been going on there with no vaccine starting in November. You can also travel there with a test before leaving and a test at airport (from what I understand). But with cases going up, I heard there is worry that racing may be affected.
In Ireland we were at about 200 cases a day before Christmas - the best in Europe. After slight relaxation of restrictions over Christmas (restrictions were still in place) caused a massive spike to 8000 cases a day. With escalation of restrictions since late December, the numbers are gradually dropping again, I think we're at about 3000 now, but deaths may not have peaked yet since they generally lag infection by a few weeks. It doesn't take a lot of complacency to do a lot of damage.
I'm curious about the vaccination policy in the UAE. You mentioned a young employee having been vaccinate already, while most countries are starting with older or vulnerable people. The UAE is not known for being a very egalitarian society. Do you know if nationality and race have an impact on vaccination availability?
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Re: When will racing resume? [Jnags7] [ In reply to ]
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Jnags7 wrote:
Very good point that not proving something doesn’t makes it true.

Where did I say that? That would be a very silly "point".

I said "Absence of evidence that a thing is true, does not prove it false."
And if you legitimately think that means the same thing, you're rather confused.

Are you trying to suggest the burden of proof lies with those who say there is a risk, and not those who say everything is fine?
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Re: When will racing resume? [70Trigirl] [ In reply to ]
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70Trigirl wrote:
Raw Vegan wrote:
exxxviii wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).
IMHO, this reflects the #1 problem in the US, and no one is talking about it. In the US, we only vaccinate 50% of the population and that is with constant and ongoing positive reinforcement. So, getting 80% of the population to volunteer for 2 doses is a huge incremental mountain to climb. My gut feel is we will call it a day when we get around 50% immunized. Either that, or US and private industry will force vaccinations by restricting people from society. This would really freak people out.


Wrong. The number one problem is people like 70Trigirl that don't get vaccines like the flu shot because they don't think they need it.

Unless you are in no contact with others you could be at risk of contracting and spreading a virus.

Just to be clear, I'm waiting eagerly for my turn to get one of the covid19 vaccines. I'm not anti-vaccine, I just haven't gotten the flu shot in the past since I'm super healthy and live in a place that is not densely populated and haven't gotten the flu since maybe I was a kid. I can't even remember when I got the flu last. It was ages. I hardly ever get sick. I have gotten a few minor colds in the last decade, both right before a big race where my immune system was low but got better quickly. I don't consider myself the problem and don't represent those who are not going to get the covid vaccine. Please don't throw around judgements towards people you know nothing about. BTW - I'm vegan AF since 2007 and did 2 years mostly raw quite a while ago.

Again, I certainly will get the covid vaccine!!!!! It can't come soon enough!!!!

I haven't had the flu since middle school and get the shot annually because I don't want to get sick and unknowingly spread it to family and co-workers. I haven't had a cold in years.

I'm glad you're healthy,vegan and pro Covid19 vaccine. A flu shot is always a good idea as all vaccines are imo.
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Re: When will racing resume? [Raw Vegan] [ In reply to ]
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Raw Vegan wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
Raw Vegan wrote:
exxxviii wrote:
70Trigirl wrote:
That's a great point about the flu vaccine. We never get the flu or flu shot so it's not something I think about (we are hermits).
IMHO, this reflects the #1 problem in the US, and no one is talking about it. In the US, we only vaccinate 50% of the population and that is with constant and ongoing positive reinforcement. So, getting 80% of the population to volunteer for 2 doses is a huge incremental mountain to climb. My gut feel is we will call it a day when we get around 50% immunized. Either that, or US and private industry will force vaccinations by restricting people from society. This would really freak people out.


Wrong. The number one problem is people like 70Trigirl that don't get vaccines like the flu shot because they don't think they need it.

Unless you are in no contact with others you could be at risk of contracting and spreading a virus.


Just to be clear, I'm waiting eagerly for my turn to get one of the covid19 vaccines. I'm not anti-vaccine, I just haven't gotten the flu shot in the past since I'm super healthy and live in a place that is not densely populated and haven't gotten the flu since maybe I was a kid. I can't even remember when I got the flu last. It was ages. I hardly ever get sick. I have gotten a few minor colds in the last decade, both right before a big race where my immune system was low but got better quickly. I don't consider myself the problem and don't represent those who are not going to get the covid vaccine. Please don't throw around judgements towards people you know nothing about. BTW - I'm vegan AF since 2007 and did 2 years mostly raw quite a while ago.

Again, I certainly will get the covid vaccine!!!!! It can't come soon enough!!!!


I haven't had the flu since middle school and get the shot annually because I don't want to get sick and unknowingly spread it to family and co-workers. I haven't had a cold in years.

I'm glad you're healthy,vegan and pro Covid19 vaccine. A flu shot is always a good idea as all vaccines are imo.


Like I said I'm not anti vaccine or anti flu shot. If I worked with other people and had family/relatives to worry about, then I might consider making the effort to seek one out in my rural world. My husband and I live very remotely off-the-grid alone with one family member left who lives far away from us. We don't have kids. We have both been remote workers for years. We don't like being around crowds or the general public. We were social distancing well before covid19 and well before there was a name for it. We are not like everyone else. Doesn't mean we are opposed to getting a flu shot in the future. But most likely we won't because we are basically very healthy hermits.

I do think it's a good idea for regular every-day people who are around a lot of other people should get the flu shot especially those in cities who live on top of each other.

Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.
Last edited by: 70Trigirl: Jan 19, 21 5:50
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