timbasile wrote:
SBRcanuck wrote:
I'm guessing zero chance of anything in the first half of the year any bigger than a small local event. And its not because I think things will 'go wrong', its because I think the vaccine rollout will take a lot longer than people realize, and a long time for numbers to come down.
Quebec has 2000+ positives per day right now, there is no way they are going to OK a 70.3 in Tremblant in June. And I don't have a lot of hope for the full in August either.
The numbers in the US are just bonkers right now.......its gonna take time.
Keep in mind that we may not need 100% vaccine coverage before things start to open up - you probably need just the vulnerable population vaccinated.
If you had 60+ or 50+ cohorts vaccinated by June, my guess is that the QC government would be fine with an event like this, especially since they'd be eager to get the economy going again. We would need to still socially distance, masks, etc. in order for the event to go off, but the risk posed to the vulnerable populations would be much reduced.
Q2 is when we can expect ~50% of Canada to be vaccinated. https://www.macleans.ca/...a-when-can-i-get-it/
Just my 2 cents though, as someone signed up for the event
Of course, with a reduction in fatalities due to partial vaccination, there will be arguments that the mitigation justifies relaxation, and that's fair, but only to a certain extent. Vaccine may not be a silver bullet and especially not until a large proportion of the population is vaccinated. Vaccines are not just about protecting those who get it, it's also hoped they will dramatically reduce proliferation of the virus. however, there's not a huge amount of evidence yet that it can do this. It's possible that those who've been vaccinated will still be able to transfer the virus despite the vaccine preventing the carrier from becoming symptomatic. Hopefully this will not be the case but it remains to be seen, and the answer will hugely alter the impact of the vaccines.