I am hopeful most of them can happen. I raced AZ 70.3 and was very impressed with all the work IM put in to keeping everyone spread out and safe. It will of course depend on local governments. I'm signed up for Oceanside 70.3 and I'd give it 50/50 chance now. I'm pretty confident my other two spring races- St George 70.3 and IMCDA will happen. Will depend on how their numbers are doing, vaccine roll outs, and how bad they want the revenue. Ironman has proven they can do a lot to make the race atmosphere very safe, especially being an outdoor event.

Everything in what you would call the Mass Participation Endurance Sports Race/Event space, I would say, is 50/50 at best for next year. The short answer is - no one really knows what will be going on 1 month from now, let alone 6 months or more out!

Don't get too pumped up about the vaccine roll-outs (according to latest news - expected to start next April) - that will be slow, and VERY limited for the first little while. That's really something for 2022!

A number of larger U.S. and Canadian winter and early season running races, from Jan 1 - April, have already, cancelled, gone-virtual or postponed. The Boston Marathon, postponed again from it's traditional late April date in 2021 to an as yet to be determined date in the fall of next year! That should tell you something right there!

A lot of this is going to depend on what local municipalities, and State/Provincial Gov'ts will let you do. I know in Canada, right now it is the time that all running, cycling and triathlon races/events are applying for their permits for next year, and the word back from Gov't authorities is, "Absolutely no way"!!

I wish that I had better news! :-(

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Well they don’t have duration because they’re only into a month or two past the second dose in the pivotal trials. So don’t take the lack of data as lack of effect or lack or duration.

Early studies of recovered patients suggest we can mount a response 6+ months after the disease. Even well after antibodies have dissipated. And it’s possible the vaccines will elicit an even more robust immune response than natural infection. Time will tell here.

I agree it’s not a magic bullet. I’m convinced this will become endemic.

But even if the duration is just 6 months, that’s a lot of immune people once distribution is ramped up. It will only help things.

especially being an outdoor event.


This to me is actually key.

Our races/events are outdoors, we know that transmission in an outdoor environment is VERY low, like close to zero!

Yet Endurance Sports Races are getting lumped in with all kinds of other "Events Businesses" indoors and out, when really the line of division should be Indoors vs Outdoors - because they are COMPLETELY different.

So far most Gov't have used a sledge-hammer approach to shutdowns, when, a much more surgical approach would be better - close the things down where their are tangible transmission numbers, and allow those with very low transmission rates or none, with proper protocols in place, to operate! You CAN put a running, cycling or triathlon race/event on right now safely for about 1000 participants with proper before and after COVID19 protocols in place. But Gov'ts in many places are saying, "absolutely not"!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

The issue is things like transition. Volunteers. Waiting for swim to start. People traveling. It’s certainly somewhat lower risk than an indoor NBA game.

But the risk isn’t zero. And with how things are going I think holding a triathlon right now is irresponsible at best.

Worth noting that Pfizer have sold doses from their first production to other nations. So the 25M vaccinated people are not going to be 25M Americans...

I think truly big city or big field US running races probably will not return with a large field until Disney or Miami in Jan 2022. I don't think you bucket ironman races in with those. The actual course density and staging area density is much lower on a 70.3 or 140.6.

Correct.

But I think they’ve said they can have 1.2B made in 2021. And if Moderna, Oxford, and J&J pan out, then we could have several viable options. So certainly none of us will be getting it anytime soon, but fingers crossed there is light at the end of the tunnel and it’s not a mirage.

It was 140,000 cases yesterday in the U.S. Texas is breaking the record everyday and we are about to hit 1 million cases.
I'm not sure if Gov. Abbott is going to do something about that or not.
If so, Texas 70.3 might not happen. It's on 11/22 and timing is pretty bad.

I find people being triggered pretty funny.

Sorry, I don't really know what that means. Must be a cultural thing.
Can you explain please?

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Triggered [definition 3].

People responding and arguing over a low effort shitpost was just amusing.

Even if the races happen, how many will be duathlons instead of triathlons ? Not sure if there's any increased risk from the swim compared to other sports, but is the swim happening in all current races?

I'm mostly concerned with IM 70.3 Virginia Blue Ridge. The swim was already a special use permit in a reservoir that supplies drinking water. Would be surprised if they allow a number of out-of-town athletes to swim in it. Bad optics if nothing else.

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tricalculator.com

At most venues, the last thing to worry about is the actual course being an issue (whether it is something on the swim, the bike, or the run). The issue is size and density of events and municipality where they happen and if race directors think they can make money off low volume of racers. Eventually races just go away because it is too much headache to put them on wiht Covid19 restrictiions and dancing within the laws to figure out how to put on a profitable race.

I can understand the precarious situation race directors are in; however, races are happening in 2020 despite what a lot of people on this forum predicted. Apparently, race directors and communities have learned how to get things going. I’m simply saying that Ironman should be able to get a consistent game plan together for the 2021 races, maybe some race locations tell them to pound sand, maybe not.

As far as suggesting people are too cautious, that’s up to the individual. I’m young and healthy so I don’t worry so much. You may be older and have more concern, that’s fine, but don’t ask me to have the same fear as you. I do feel that lockdowns are generally a bad thing because in a country as big and diverse as the US, it’s not going to be effective. Basically we half assed it and suffered needlessly without making a big impact. 14 days to give hospitals and medical folks (I am one) time to prepare was cool, but after that was an ineffective display of half assery.

Life is all about risk, I’m comfortable going out and living my life. I get tested once a week due to my profession, I work with covid patients directly and intimately and I have seen the effects of it, as well as the effects of diminishing health from the lockdowns in the general population.

Pfizer’s statement was early release to critical patients HOPEFULLY by end of year, and release to general public HOPEFULLY by summer 2021. This is all contingent on it passing several non yet done steps and tests, and of course FDA approval, AND a solution is needed for the transportation and storage of a vaccine that is required to remain at -94 F!
The test result was very important and promising, but I would caution projecting any specific dates until testing is fully completed and successful and approvals are in hand :-)

I think you are misleading yourself on numbers.

To the extent I have had contact from race promoters about events for next year where my entry was automatically rolled over to next year, several are saying next years event is already sold out. But they are also saying the capacity they are planning for next year is about half of what they would previously have.

So yes, I think a lot of these events can realistically happen (though far from a sure thing), but if they do happen, the "sold out" numbers will not be what were previously "sold out" numbers.

This is also the silver lining for anyone who grumbled about events being cancelled this year and being automatically rolled over to next year instead of a refund. I think for a lot of events that actually happen next year, almost nobody is going to get in who didn't already have a deferred entry from this year. This was actually a motivation to me to sign up for some events I expected to be cancelled this year, to make sure I would definitely be in if the event was held in 2021.

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"When I first had the opportunity to compete in triathlon, it was the chicks and their skimpy race clothing that drew me in. Everyone was so welcoming and the lifestyle so obviously narcissistic. I fed off of that vain energy. To me it is what the sport is all about."

JFC. I got it. I think I may be the only one that did.

So don't engage with you further? Got it

But you did have to get your own low effort shitpost in at the end. :)

I will race 2 70.3 races in 2020.

I see no reason why my 5 scheduled races will not go in 2021

A little late to the party, eh?

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Seriously. Wondering if/when we will ever have options for Traverse City. Zero communication

My two 70.3 races in 2020 were both cancelled (in TX no less).

Deferred to 2021, but I can see some reasons why they won't happen then. But here's hoping!

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.