lol

Since this is all make believe the answer's obvious:

Men's
1. Rideon77

With Frodeno injured, this would have been the best chance for an American to win in a long time.

TO for the win, Hoffman in 3rd. 2nd place up in the air.

Lionel, dummy.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I could see Alistair taking it, he definitely has the talent (Still not sure of the ability to run in the heat for that duration). As for Lionel and Cody, those guys would have to leap frog some other folks to be in this conversation. Lionel still has the swimming Achille's heel, which would also be a problem for those who cited Sam Long. Also it should be noted that Sam survived the Cozumel run on with Butterfield closing. Cozumel is hot, but Kona is twice as long and just as hot. Back to Lionel, he would need a low 2:40's marathon to make the podium. There is a common misbelief that some bike train lead by Wurf is going to catch Ali, Jan, etc...we already saw that and they didn't catch them. Jan and Brownlee are legit cyclists and they also cleverly used Maurice Clavel to destroy himself while keeping the pace high. As for Cody Beals, he just hasn't shown himself at that level. Yes he has won some Ironman races and put down some record times, but Kona is different. If you were a betting man would you take a bet on Cody Beals beating Kienle, Hoffman, TO, Currie, Skipper, Sanders, Lange? I know my answer.

For the guy who mentioned Joe Skipper, he definitely is really honed in on his racing this past year. That being said, Joe is a bigger guy and I'm not sure he'll ever be able to fully thrive in the heat and humidity of Kona.

As for the women, one has to think it's still Ryf. Ryf's age, experience, and her skills make her a tough act to beat. Anne Haug is 37, so she is starting to get into the later stages of her career. I would assume Anne still has the devastating run speed and will challenge for the podium any race that she's in right now. As for Lucy, she's so young and still getting better and better that her presence on the podium should never be counted out (Although, I think she should look to a coach outside of her husband). Heather Jackson is more of the old school triathlete, where she kind of learned on the job. More likely than not, Heather's days on the podium are behind her. It's not to say Heather is not a great athlete, but the sport has elevated to a level where people are coming in with no weaknesses. When you look at somebody like Laura Phillip who came to Kona last year on practically no run training and still beat Jackson. Correct me if I'm wrong, but has Jackson ever run sub 3:00 in Kona? Plus we can't discount the beast that is Sarah Crowley and her ability to run sub 3. I'm just not sure Heather has the pedigree to become significantly better at this age and her swimming struggles make the improvement on the bike and run significantly harder.

Obviously this is all hypothetical, so Jan currently being injured doesn't really matter. As for 2021, there could be some ITU guys who come over and could continue to increase swim speed and make the race that much crazier. As others have pointed out, it's hard to say anything without seeing some racing playing out during the year.

So in this crazy hypothetical landscape (assuming Jan is not hurt):

1. Jan Frodeno
2. Sebastian Kienle
3. Patrick Lange (The dude just runs so consistently, if he makes it to the run)

1. Daniela Ryf
2. Lucy Charles
3. Anne Haug

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Team Zoot 2023

Womens:
1. Gwen Jorgensen
2. Nicola Spirig
3. Vicky Holland

Mens/Overall:
1. Ryf
2. Injured Frodo
3. Sanders

something seems familiar about that women's podium, just can't recall why...

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I picked Iden for the win at Nice last year. And that worked out.
All other so called experts were wrong.
Just saying....... ;-)

Skipper was 6th last year with a flat tire. Then won Florida a few weeks after. (Cooler temps)
I don't think he can win the thing, but I do think he's capable of 2nd/3rd without the flat. He certainly dealt with his flat tire better than Brownlee.
Fair point on him being a bit too heavy to go sub 2:50. Might make 3rd out of reach.

I don't see Lange back in the top 10. I think he's lost it mentally. Pulling a minor version of Pete Jacobs.

Did Skipper win that race or The Hoff? I know they both had killer races (runs) but I thought Hoff won?

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Joe won.

I've done the research and I'm pretty confident it would have been:

Men
Me

Women
Me, but as a woman

I'm pretty sure you won't be able to stay in the front swim pack so yeah,, ,,,,,, ,,its not gonna happen. :0)

Joe Skipper is an animal and is going to win a ton of races in his career, just not sure Kona is going to happen. Joe struggles with the swim and I think he has admitted himself that the heat just melts him down. You're right though, if he can just outlast some people he could pull a McNamee and scoop up a third by picking people off at the end.

Interesting take on Lange, I haven't seen somebody go that route. I was never a huge Lange fan, but if he makes the run it is a deadly weapon.

I think we may be somewhat too harsh on Pete Jacobs, even though he hasn't been able to even replicate his success prior to Kona. In 2012, Jacobs most likely over biked just to remain somewhat in the mix and with Kienle flatting and Marino exploding on the run, the door opened. In terms of today's racing, we just don't see the front explode quiet like Marino did at the time. Pete had and still has incredible swimming capability, completely lost any ounce of biking skills, and his run has diminished (which used to be his weapon). I still root for Pete to somehow make it back to Kona and put together a top ten finish, although it seems unlikely at his soon to be 39 years of age.

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Team Zoot 2023