Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [42point2] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 7:02

Post #26 of 41 (876 views)

42point2 wrote:

realbdeal wrote:

Can I use this thread to rehash the draft distance discussion for the presumably millionth time? I know it's been talked about before but I've never really understood the arguments for a longer draft distance until recently. I think I even kind of scoffed at Sanders in 2017 when he said he wasn't going to go to 70.3 Worlds because it would be a draft fest (paraphrased).

Having realized the massive benefit of racing in a legally spaced pack, it makes me desperately want a longer draft zone. In Cozumel, I only ended up riding 250w avg, but had nearly my fastest bike split ever. I wanted to ride harder, but with the winds, I knew that if I tried to break away from my small pack of 4, I wouldn't be able to drop them and I'd just end up doing all the work off the front for no benefit. Instead I sat in the pack, leading as little as possible except for two surges. Boring. At one point I did glance over my shoulder a few times to see someone sitting maybe 4 meters behind me, prompting me to sit up, give them the finger, and yell some not so nice things. He dropped back but it pissed me off. Saw him blatantly drafting off Taylor Reid right in front of me when our pack first caught him.

In addition, I would assume the drafting benefit does not scale linearly on distance. If someone cheats the distance to say 8 meters, right now they may not get a penalty because that's close enough, but they're also getting a much bigger benefit than the legal 10 meters. If the legal zone was 20 meters, if someone cheated up a bit to 16, they're benefit is much smaller.

So I guess the relevant part to your question is, does having the legal distance short enough that there is a benefit make racing more interesting? It certainly makes it more tactical but from a being in the race perspective that's kind of disappointing. Despite the potential benefits of drafting on the swim, triathlon is arguably an individual sport we do at the same time as others. I'd argue the mental aspect of being out there with others is tactical enough and we don't need to add in physical advantages to be gained as well.

20m draft zone would be great, but you could only do it for pro's. There are so many AG's normally that it can be tough to keep to the current draft rules. It's not realistic to have 2000 athletes all 20+ plus meters apart. If it was done for pro's only, BOP pro's ans FOP AG's mixing could cause a bit of confusion!

Pretty sure Challenge races have 20m draft rule for AGers as well

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 7:39

Post #27 of 41 (855 views)

Appreciate the input! Thankfully it's going to be awhile before I start racing 140.6 so I only have 2ish hours to be frustrated rather than 4+. I'm sure it's been brought up to Ironman before so I do wonder what is keeping them from upping it. I understand that 20m wouldn't be practical for age groupers, but to swap it for pros would be as easy as changing a few words in the rule book.

I am as of yet, not a PTO member, but I'll certainly be joining for 2021. I'll be happy to spearhead that push but it's hard to believe more influential people than me haven't already tried. Lionel isn't exactly shy and would definitely benefit from it.

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 7:44

Post #28 of 41 (847 views)

I think people look past the fact that Jan is an excellent cyclist. Also, Ali Brownlee is a phenomenal cyclist as well. In 2019 they had Ali and Clavel pushing all the way to Hawi. So if we assume that somehow the train you have listed is able to catch Frodeno and Ali at the front, chances are Frodeno hasn't really burned the same number of matches as those guys. Of the guys you listed, nobody is in Frodeno's ballpark when it comes to running (Aside from a few performances from Skipper, but he hasn't delivered those in intense heat). Yes Frodeno is getting older, but the guy has cared for his body unlike almost any other. The truth is that we haven't even seen Frodeno pushed on the run at this point. Last year he was trying to beat the course record, but nobody was breathing down his neck. Frodeno is an incredible runner and is capable of the 2:39's that Lange has shown. Even at 40, I'll take Jan over the field.

Team Zoot 2023

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Halvard] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 7:45

Post #29 of 41 (846 views)

Halvard wrote:

Thomas Gerlach wrote:

stevej wrote:

I don’t think it really matters if they team up. The lead group is so large and fast leading up to hawi that those guys have to put in a huge effort just to catch them. Maybe (And I really mean maybe) they catch them by Hawi or on the way back home near kawaihae but they will have burned many matches. They still have to outrun some of the fastest guys to ever run in Hawaii (frodo and Lange). None of those guys listed have shown they are on the same level of running in kona as frodo/Lange.

Now if they can catch the front group and get a gap on frodo/Lange, that may be a different story. But with Frodo on top of his game, I don’t see that happening.

70.3 World Results last year...

1Gustav IdenNOR 00:23:55 02:17:250 1:08:10 03:52:35-06:43US$ 45,000
2Alistair BrownleeGBR 00:23:17 02:17:38 01:10:43 03:55:19-03:00US$ 20,000
3Rodolphe Von BergUSA 00:23:31 02:17:24 01:12:15 03:56:45-06:40US$ 15,000
4Kristian BlummenfeltNOR 00:23:23 02:22:10 01:09:59 03:59:2101:57US$ 10,000
5Sebastian KienleGER 00:26:50 02:19:57 01:09:31 04:00:18-00:55US$ 7,500
6Bart AernoutsBEL 00:27:00 02:19:460 1:10:36 04:01:14-06:39US$ 6,500
7Javier GomezESP 00:23:22 02:24:070 1:10:09 04:01:3000:26US$ 6,000

In all seriousness I believe Sanders has the biggest engine in the field, he just isn't efficient enough. Kienle has proven he can run well after very very hard bike rides.

Gustav Iden will compete at Kona 2021.
Based on your list he is a better swimmer, biker and runner than Seb.

Over the 70.3 on that day I'll give you that for swim/run. You can't use someone's bike split at a major race as indicative of their biking ability when they are leading the race. Obviously he is a strong biker, but no doubt Kienle did not have any attention coming from that far back although it appears he may have at least some help from Bart. I would give Kienle the advantage in a TT still.

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [TriStart] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 7:47

Post #30 of 41 (844 views)

Not sure I follow this thought correctly, how would it be easy to enforce with mats? Even if you were to add ten more mats, the drafting cyclists would only have to ensure they leave 1 s when just before the mat, and they could go back to drafting in between mats.

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [realbdeal] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 7:58

Post #31 of 41 (833 views)

realbdeal wrote:

Appreciate the input! Thankfully it's going to be awhile before I start racing 140.6 so I only have 2ish hours to be frustrated rather than 4+. I'm sure it's been brought up to Ironman before so I do wonder what is keeping them from upping it. I understand that 20m wouldn't be practical for age groupers, but to swap it for pros would be as easy as changing a few words in the rule book.

I am as of yet, not a PTO member, but I'll certainly be joining for 2021. I'll be happy to spearhead that push but it's hard to believe more influential people than me haven't already tried. Lionel isn't exactly shy and would definitely benefit from it.

As someone who has been very vocal over the years I can tell you it is not easy. I wrote some more initially in that post but canned much of it upon review. By and large the incumbents benefit from the situation. Even if they don't personally like it, they benefit from it and are NOT super stoked about biting the hand that feeds them. Best thing to do would be to have some sort of rules committee meeting at a world championship and at least take a vote on some things, have some discussions, and get a pulse on what people want pro triathlon to be.

The prior world champions who then retired would have been great people to put into leadership roles to spearhead some of these athlete concerns. Lionel is well aware of the issue. Pro tip though if you haven't realized it though, the further back you go in a group the more and more benefit you gain. Gets pretty negligible though as incremental value and also cuts the other way as the accordion effect can start to really eat away at the running legs.

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 8:08

Post #32 of 41 (823 views)

This was a B race for Iden.
He used his ITU bike. No special bike like Seb
But if you look at his bike split from Bahrain you can tell he is a good biker. Most likely one of the strongest of all of triathlon.

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 8:34

Post #33 of 41 (802 views)

Thomas Gerlach wrote:

stevej wrote:

I don’t think it really matters if they team up. The lead group is so large and fast leading up to hawi that those guys have to put in a huge effort just to catch them. Maybe (And I really mean maybe) they catch them by Hawi or on the way back home near kawaihae but they will have burned many matches. They still have to outrun some of the fastest guys to ever run in Hawaii (frodo and Lange). None of those guys listed have shown they are on the same level of running in kona as frodo/Lange.

Now if they can catch the front group and get a gap on frodo/Lange, that may be a different story. But with Frodo on top of his game, I don’t see that happening.

70.3 World Results last year...

1Gustav IdenNOR 00:23:55 02:17:250 1:08:10 03:52:35-06:43US$ 45,000
2Alistair BrownleeGBR 00:23:17 02:17:38 01:10:43 03:55:19-03:00US$ 20,000
3Rodolphe Von BergUSA 00:23:31 02:17:24 01:12:15 03:56:45-06:40US$ 15,000
4Kristian BlummenfeltNOR 00:23:23 02:22:10 01:09:59 03:59:2101:57US$ 10,000
5Sebastian KienleGER 00:26:50 02:19:57 01:09:31 04:00:18-00:55US$ 7,500
6Bart AernoutsBEL 00:27:00 02:19:460 1:10:36 04:01:14-06:39US$ 6,500
7Javier GomezESP 00:23:22 02:24:070 1:10:09 04:01:3000:26US$ 6,000

In all seriousness I believe Sanders has the biggest engine in the field, he just isn't efficient enough. Kienle has proven he can run well after very very hard bike rides.

No doubt Sebi can run but how is that result relevant to this? He's never ran faster than 2:49 in Kona. I think we all know that it takes a low 2:4x to win in kona with the off chance that a mid to high 2:4x can win on a brutal conditions day.

I'm a big fan of sebi and I would like to see him win another world title. I just don't think he can because of the deficit coming out of the swim.

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Halvard] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 8:50

Post #34 of 41 (789 views)

Halvard wrote:

This was a B race for Iden.
He used his ITU bike. No special bike like Seb
But if you look at his bike split from Bahrain you can tell he is a good biker. Most likely one of the strongest of all of triathlon.

It was a B race for Sebi too. And there are a lot of people who opt for road bikes at France. I'm not doubting he has a monster engine and is an amazing biker. I certainly don't have all the facts and know as much about Iden as you. What I am trying to say is it is always more meaningful to come from the back of the race with a fast bike than at the front of the race with the media moto parade. You just don't know what is real and what is not at the very tippy point. I wasn't there and I can't comment specifically but most people don't understand how much it can affect races. I don't hold racing in the Middle East in high regards for not influencing the race unjustly. Specifically came to this conclusion after Terenzo, a few years back, was sniffing the back of Lambo or something similar as the passenger was hanging out the window taking pictures.

I am guessing he used his ITU bike because he felt he could race that specific course on it better and given where he was with his training, how he trained, and how it would affect his A race.

I will say this too. The more technical the course the more motos usually screw up the race. It is just inevitable. Why did Kristian bike 5 minutes slower at France WC 70.3. Yet Iden/Kristian had the same split at Bahrain 70.3 in 2018?

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Last edited by: Thomas Gerlach: Oct 2, 20 10:27

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 9:08

Post #35 of 41 (780 views)

You are pissing into the wind. Don't you know Iden is Norwegian?

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]

Oct 1, 20 16:02

Post #36 of 41 (681 views)

What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?

How does that race play out for Frodeno, Lange, AB? //

Best case scenario for the bike chasers is that they catch the leaders. Then Frodo proceeds to outrun them all and still wins the race. He has no weakness other than an injury, or just plain bad day. That is the thing with guys like him, or Mark Allen, or PNF, they always find a way to win the race, and if left to the run, no one can challenge them unless something is off. So everyone on their day, nothing amiss, Frondeno wins it on the run with a big T2 group coming in within 3 minutes of each other...

And those of you reliving the race years ago when the train caught up and rode through the lead group, did you not see the most recent race and how that played out??

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]

Oct 2, 20 4:16

Post #37 of 41 (584 views)

milesthedog wrote:

What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?

How does that race play out for Frodeno, Lange, AB?

Wurf won't drag a pack next year. He will drop them all.

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [NAB777] [ In reply to ]

Oct 2, 20 4:52

Post #38 of 41 (565 views)

"Wurf won't drag a pack next year. He will drop them all."
------------------------------------------
*If* he comes back to triathlon, and *if* he has maintained his swim, no one will be anywhere near him on the bike. HOWEVER, that combination of "If's" are highly unlikely in my opinion, particularly *if* he has any intention of having a decent run.

David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Last edited by: david: Oct 2, 20 4:53

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [david] [ In reply to ]

Oct 2, 20 8:36

Post #39 of 41 (478 views)

Hope he comes back on ST and lets us know.

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [david] [ In reply to ]

Oct 2, 20 9:43

Post #40 of 41 (448 views)

maintaining his swim imight be a big IF, what does your crystal ball say about his run?

david wrote:

"Wurf won't drag a pack next year. He will drop them all."
------------------------------------------
*If* he comes back to triathlon, and *if* he has maintained his swim, no one will be anywhere near him on the bike. HOWEVER, that combination of "If's" are highly unlikely in my opinion, particularly *if* he has any intention of having a decent run.

Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Halvard] [ In reply to ]

Oct 2, 20 10:20

Post #41 of 41 (434 views)

Quote:

he is a better swimmer, biker and runner than Seb.

Iden is great, but you are blinded by the flag he runs for. Iden has not proven anything at 140.6 yet and Sebi has. I would love to see what he can do in a few years, but not at that level yet.

https://www.strava.com/athletes/23685202

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