COVID killed races this year. Generational and economic conditions are killing future races.
Boomers are done, Gen X'ers are at the point of "I have done my IM, I'm good", Millennial's are not interested, and this sport is expensive.
I'm talking big picture, macro, generalities here so don't say...."I know this really fast millennial who races every year".................... unfortunately this sport is in decline and may price itself out of existence as far as the "Ironman" brand goes. Not that far off.
Triathlon in North America in terms of overall participation numbers peaked somewhere in the 2012 - 2015 range. Since then it had been on a gradual the decline. Now in 2018 and 2019, some of my clients, did experience a slight increase in participation - like 1% in either standalone races or series.
Of course this year killed that!
Cycling - mass participation kind of events gran fondos etc has followed triathlon, having possibly peaked in the mid teens. Serious licensed and category racing has been in a moderate decline for about the same time frame. Cycling is harder to put a finger on because, many do ride, and ride seriously hard, long and fast, but NEVER pin a bib number on! There are many in my club like that! Super fit super fast guys - more interested seemingly in "winning" our Thursday night "world championships" ride!
Running has again followed a similar pattern but the growth extended a bit and the peak came a bit later, and overall numbers are still WAY bigger than cycling and triathlon. In the U.S., overall running race/event participation has been down about 1% to 2% in the last 3 - 4 years!
The big question is - what will happen whenever we get on the other side of the Covid-19 Crisis? Anecdotally - many are seeing way more people cycling and running in their neighborhoods. Bike sales are up 75% this year . . yes you read that right. But these are mostly bikes in the $500 range. Still, it's always a good thing to see more people, running or cycling or doing whatever. How many of these new people, will come out to a traditional running, cycling or triathlon race/event when we are on the other side of Covid-19?
As for IRONMAN and other big mass participation races and events - working in the business, as I do, I can tell you that 2020 is going to be very hard, and if 2021 is the same, it will be catastrophic for the operational business side of the race/events business! Both IM and New York Road Runners just announced big rounds of lay offs. Several noteable mid sized race/event management companies have already shut down operations! The new buzz question in the business is, "How will you hibernate?" Personally I've had 3/4 of my income for the year, from Race/Event Announcing, Emceeing and Commentating wiped out! It's looking bleak!
On a brighter note I was part of a consultative discussion a month ago, to bring top level women's UCI Pro Road Racing to the North Eastern U.S. and possibly spilling over the border into Canada with a series of races for 2022!! But right now, that feels like a bit of a dream!
Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog