On your last one and tri bikes, will be interesting to see who cares to buy tri bikes. The primary market is people who race, and with no races, some may say, "what's the point". I am in the market for a new tri bike (my old one is a 2009 frame that I got in 2012), but with no racing, why get a nice new race machine. I have a tri bike for days I want to ride in the TT position and a road bike. I don't need a faster tri bike for training, and for many they don't even care to ride in the TT position without racing (I kind of like riding some days in the TT position on hard days).

Maybe. But I've heard more cases of just the opposite. E.g. people who were going to retire after the 2020 Olympics are adding on 2021. E.g. Simone Biles.

I was thinking that if you were fast this year would be good for female pros to have children with no races anyway.
But i think ot will be 50/50

I think we need to separate out Olympic athletes from LC triathletes & other non olympic sport athletes. In the latter group we've already seen some retirements.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Lots of used tri bikes in the classified.
Gravel bikes and bikepacking equipment selling out though.

I can speak to some of these and how they've affected me and my wife personally. Needless to say we picked a bad year to fully commit to being pros. We were both working part time and she was going to school full-time with the plan being move back home when she graduated. That move got pushed up when her school went online.

Not only were we hoping for some prize money, but one of our primary sponsors paying us a stipend decided they couldn't anymore starting in June. Sucks but wasn't totally unforseen. This was a relatively new company that was relying on a lot of things related to triathlon and other sports like race expos and trade shows. I'd rather they stay in business than go broke paying us so no hard feelings there but it sucks.

Frankly, we wouldn't be able to continue being "full time" triathletes without our current rent free living situation. This has been a blessing anyways during quarantine as we've been close to both of our families, rather than 2000 miles away. There is certainly work to be had if we needed to, and maybe we will in the coming year, but as of now we're sticking to the commitment and training to be in as good a spot as possible when races resume. It's not like we've ever been swimming in money anyways haha.

And as far as bike companies innovating goes, might not be fair as Tririg is pretty much exclusively triathlon gear, but I think it's fair to say that Nick is never going to stop creating the next best piece of tri tech. Can't wait to see what comes next on that front ;)

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

I think we need to separate out Olympic athletes //

Yes, for those that were aiming for the games, the aim just got pushed out a year. No one that is legitimately a contender is going to just drop it because of a year. Now if they cancel the games all together and it is now 4 years(well 3 at that point) then you would see some just bagging it. I could see Allistar still thinning about the games a year from now, but not 4 years. He would probably keep racing, but back to a long distance only focus to round out his fabolous career..Same with a lot of other ITU athletes long in the tooth, 4 years would be a back breaker for many, but it would sure make long distance racing a lot more fun to watch!!

.
The news this week that the Youth Olympic Games Dakar 2022 has now been postponed to 2026 has crushed the potential careers of a lot of kids from developing nations who will now be too old to qualify for the games they have been training for.The "Games/World Champs" calendar over the next couple of years is getting so stacked up with rescheduled events that there is a crazy rush to find athletes and confirm funding for so many national federations.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/...KzpvjVo8X9LJEuI.html

Athletes that have been loyal to their sponsors will probably stick around. Athletes shopping around will be stuffed as support these days is based on care and and friendship as there is very little commercial value in triathlon right now.
LD triathlon community has always been a small world but it has become a lot smaller lately.
I am not a pro and I am getting old but people that support me have become friends and these relations will survive a covid-19 bump.
Sam

PS: thanks folks at Rudy Project, Ceepo, Bioracer, Overstim.s, 4iiii and Lake Cycling for the continued support!

There are so few pro triathletes who make an a honest living, at least those in the US, I wonder how many there are to throw in the towel. For the rest it is a hobby or they moved to a coaching business somewhere along the line which brings up two questions. How many people have dropped their coaches. And will general unemployment within the US and job scarcity going forward actually lead to more people pursuing professional triathlon and a second wave hit to the coaching side of the business.

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Maybe maybe not. It could end up being a blessing in disguise. Too early to say. A lot of first year full-time pros get sick, injured, and burnt out. Maybe a smoother transition without as much pressure will allow you to build the long term durability that may have not been afforded before. I also think you might see some wheat from chafe separation and I think you could be poised to capitalize with more focus on triathlon being the wheat. In addition, I do think you will see an exodus of athletes from the top and less race attendance. Less race attendance by pros gives a more fair race and again favors athletes who are more well-rounded and strong. The front-pack swim advantage as things get strong out get lessened.

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I will say that there is no smarter time than now to have a coach as a lot of people have a lot of extra time on their hands. The training increases they do during this pandemic will have impacts this season, if we race, (which we won't unless it's small events) and next season. I've had athletes increase the power they can hold over the 4-6h range by 30w and set 5 & 10k PB's by :45

When will triathletes ever get a better chance to focus on 2 sports with no worries about being race fit until next May?

(IMO it'll be May before mass events take place).

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Brian, in your experience how lasting are the improvements in such a situation? Sure, if we focus and train like a demon during these most unusual times we will most likely see some gains (esp. if we select one sport).

But once life returns to normal (driving kids to soccer, not working from home, racing once a month.....) do those gains disappear like the heat from the desert sands once the sun goes down?

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http://www.fitspeek.com the Fraser Valley's fitness, wellness, and endurance sports podcast

There are so few pro triathletes who make an a honest living,//

As opposed to a dishonest living?

Maybe he means that most pros who say they are making a living at all doing the sport aren't being honest ;)

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

An exodus from the top seems a little bit counter intuitive. It would make more sense that the MOP/BOP athletes who probably already had other jobs would be the first to stop racing. Or I guess maybe not as now the SOLE source of income of the top guys has been cut down and they need to find other things to do. Regardless, I think pro race fields will be super competitive for the first few that eventually happen, followed by a spike of less competitive races. I know that right now, if any race were to happen in the continental US, Summer and I would pack up the van and be there, ready to go. I'm guessing a lot of others around the country feel the same!

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
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Well it's still <100F at 7pm several nights this past week in Tucson. (why Mother Nature why?) (summer is the dumbest season ever)

It's going to depend is the answer. If you stop training you'll see most erode. If you revert back to normal training, your #'s will be higher. You may see some erosion as duration extends, especially if you're not banging out 4.5-6.5h rides weekly. If you're only racing half's though I think you should be able to sustain the gains.

You'll see some erosion in the off season. I'd rather erode from 290 FTP then erode from 270 FTP. I'd rather erode from a 38:30 10k ability than from a 40;00 10k ability. I'd rather erode from being able to bang out 30k of running as if it's nbd vs 20k.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

What are you seeing from the fulltime coaching industry? Is there a real noticeable difference in business volume one way or the other?

I would guess that the U.S employment situation would cause a decline in the coaching business more so than the lack or available races.

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My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."

athletes who did not hop on zwift train essentially retired. races are now adapting to the future. Today super league tri announced it will do arena style races. Likely indoor swim, zwift on bike, then indoor run (on pavement or treadmill)

That race will have 7 athletes racing in person, livestreamed. That's not exactly an accessible race for pros. I agree that virtual racing is all there will be for awhile, but the superleague race, as cool as it might be to watch, isn't directly providing exposure or $$$ for anyone except the 7 racing. It does still help the sport so thats good, but I don't think its fair to say that anyone who hasn't jumped on the zwift game is effectively retired. Hell, I don't even have a smart trainer yet.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

its kind of like that time back in long course racing, athlete with road bike saying, hell I dont have a time trial bike yet or need one...

Shit's expensive. I get that sometimes you need to spend money to make money, but having a smart trainer wouldn't get me, or anyone from the US for that matter, in this superleague race.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

In advance sorry for the short novel. As I pondered your question I kept typing out my thoughts and made only a few edits for grammar, cohesion and consolidating related thoughts.

At A3 we saw a few athletes bail right at the start of the pandemic. They didn't see a path to the 70.3 WC's this year and/or racing and they just weren't motivated to continue to train.

We also saw several athletes put all their travel time to/from the pool + swim time + extra time since they were WFH into biking and/or running. There were several who converted swim time to B or R time and actually had training take up less overall hours bc no travel to/from workouts.

As far as numbers it was interesting. For every athlete we had drop out there was a jr bike racer who's team folded and they could use us as a coach or HS swimmer who's team suspended practice, had pool access and needed to get OT cuts in the 50 and hit (I forgot what) in the 100 to get swim scholarships to major or mid major programs. This was a deep dive...pun intended, for me back into the competitive swim coaching world and my swim skill set increased quite a bit as I haven't coached sprinters in many decades. Once they lost pool access or found other bike teams that had their own coach they left.

On the whole our numbers are up slightly by a few athletes both in 1 on 1 and consulting from April 1. In my convo's with other coaches that doesn't seem to the trend with >50% of coaches and I've talked with coaches who have lost 50-75% of their athletes. There was also an initial increase in coaching inquiries, 95% was tire kicking. That has slowed down a bit.

Some other coaches have told me they experienced increases and those seem to be the stronger/smarter/better coaches I know and/or coaches that focus on the more serious athlete vs those who's business model is on the participation crowd/I want to train 8hr week/train with my friends/or coaches who had local groups that could no longer meet. Or if you're a large coaching group you probably got hit with more people stopping just due to sheer numbers. I'm guessing on that though.

I think Accelerate 3 is a bit different since our model isn't built on having a high volume of athletes. I know of several 2 person coaching groups where each coach has more athletes than A3 has total under roof. My GF who used to be the CMO of 3 different $100+MM companies is always coming up with ways for me generate more revenue through selling canned plans, creating more content, etc. I resist that bc A3 has always been about each athlete and their goals, dreams, desires & aspirations. I just don't see that changing to a mass market one size fits all strategy or accept any athlete that comes to the door model.

Every 18 mo the average triathlete switches coaches. Maybe the pandemic increased that by some number which could explain some of the above paragraphs. IDK. We are thankfully not seeing the losses at A3. My personal turnover rate is somewhere between 4.5 and 5 years and A3 on the whole is between 4 and 4.25 years. We do have a few spots open though.

The fact that are overall numbers are slightly up & our turnover rate is low/retention rate is high says a lot about the Accelerate 3 team. We're smart, experienced and consistently get results for people year after year after year.

If as a coach you're struggling in one or more of those categories my perception is you went from treading water to sinking.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the inevitable erosion of the economy (my opinion), what that does for the triathlon coaching profession and on a bigger scale the coaching profession for all niche sports. Will we see some of those coaches who aren't good at it or have high(er) turnover leave? Will we see some of them use the lower athlete count time to really increase their knowledge and develop their skill set? Will it challenge business models and force some back into part time coaching

As the owner of a brand in the tri coaching space I have zero fears. I think there is a spot for Accelerate 3 in whatever becomes of the industry.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta