TomkR wrote:
MOP_Mike wrote:
TomkR wrote:
I would seriously caution any strategy counting on herd immunity before we more fully understand the immunity conferred from infection. There is evidence that antibodies disappear quickly, particularly in asymptomatic people, and we know from SARS-COV-1 that immunity can be much shorter than other diseases (in the 1-3 year range, but can be shorter than that even). https://www.nytimes.com/...irus-antibodies.htmlThat's a good point. I can't read that article due to the pay wall. But, the latest info I've seen suggests that the duration of immunity is indeed still unknown.
On the bright side, there is a recent study that at least confirms (or strongly suggests) that immunity is conferred for at least some period of time:
https://science.sciencemag.org/...5/19/science.abc4776
But, if we can't develop reasonably long-lasting immunity, what is the alternative strategy? We could depend upon development of a vaccine. But, if you don't retain immunity from actual exposure to the virus, it's pretty unlikely that you'd develop/retain immunity from any vaccine either. I guess you might be able to get a Covid vax booster shot every year...
If humans can't develop immunity to Coronavirus, then our future is bleak -- indefinite shutdowns causing global upheaval with never-ending seasonal waves of infections gradually killing us off. Our only hope then would be that the virus eventually mutates enough to be less deadly and becomes just another pathogen in the ecosystem.
Sorry about the pay wall, I think the article pretty much says what I wrote but sounds like you know as much.
It’s a good question on what to do if there isn’t enough immunity to bridge to a vaccine, and then if a vaccine only works for so long. And then in our current political environment we will absolutely not have full compliance in getting the vaccine even if mandated by law.
One solution is that we go on true full lockdown for 3 weeks. The logistics behind that would be difficult and require a ton of planning and coordination. For example my mom’s memory care home - stock 4 weeks of food (in case), give people 1 week heads up, have every staff person that will be on duty during the full lockdown tested in the week prior, then have them sleep/eat at the facility for the 3 weeks. Large gov program pays them for the extra time, and this type of logistic happens wherever it needs to.
I fully acknowledge this won’t happen, and that there are a shite-ton more logistics I’m not outlining or even thinking of, but if we could gather a coherent response, as a country and world, this is a solution.
Wouldn't it be great if we could actually do that? But we can't because this country if full of self entitled fucktards (bannable word? instructions not clear) that insist on exercising their right to do harm to others. You would have to have national guard members shooting people in the streets to maintain compliance. There's also the problem of protecting corporations and allowing tens of thousands of people to fly out of and into the country per day. I'd argue that they are suffering much more right now than if we just completely shut everything down hard for 3-4 weeks.
In short, yes, we could do it. But we won't.