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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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spudone wrote:

Tend to agree, plus this type of market will have values to grab if you're risk tolerant. Airlines for one, got pummeled by this virus, so if you believe the vaccine will be next year or sometime soon, chances are they'll bounce back. I'm not offering that as advice, just an example.

My thinking as well with Air Canada. National airline, currently sitting around $17, down from around $50 pre-covid. It went as low as about 14 I think in mid-late March when everything really crashed. Given time I think it will recover nicely......people will travel again, even if it takes a couple years.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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Just my opinion: I agree that people will travel again but I strongly question that current equity owners will be equity owners two or three years hence.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Didn’t see a post on the unemployment data - thought this was as good a place as any...

Can someone explain the dissonance between the BLS unemployment number (14.5m) and the total number Of people claiming unemployment insurance (state and federal, 30m+)

Is it because the BLS data doesn’t account for gig workers - and the relief package offered federal insurance benefits for this cohort? Given the number of households that are supported by gig work - this seems like an important distinction.

Regardless - that’s 30m people who are set to lose $600/wk - it’s hard to imagine how economically things don’t continue to deteriorate even if we have employment gains in the months ahead.




"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." - John Kenneth Galbraith
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [Team Schwinn] [ In reply to ]
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Ya I don't get how over 30 million are on the rolls(and countless more than cannot collect), yet we are at 11+% or something like that? At any rate, anyone that went back to work last week will most likely be laid off pretty soon again. 57k new cases today with no end in sight for the curve going straight up, has gotta have all those restaurants, travel related, and service industry folks on the ropes again.. It is really gonna suck big this time around too, as there will probably not be as much in the way of govt help. How many trillions can this govt get away with? I suppose it doesnt matter anymore that the republicans are in charge, they will cave in the face of what is certainly going to be a big 2nd wave.

And that is the conundrum, the market actually likes this bad news, as it makes more trillions of stimulus more probable. I put a big short on the market today and left it on for the holiday weekend. It may backfire, but I just wanted some protection for what I have left in the market, and hoping that most of those will be defensive and do well in the hard times to come. My guess is that printing trillions more dollars is going to raise the precious metals, which have been on a tear already. Other than that, just some technology that maybe will do less bad than the general market..
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Month and a half later market at a new high and about 7% higher than your post. It doesn’t care about bad C-19 news. It doesn’t care about the stimulus being stuck. It just keeps on roaring.

I was thinking of going more into cash, but I know the administration is going to do everything in its power (and possibly things outside its power) to keep the fires going. The risk is either that isn’t enough or they finally admit they can’t win and cash in.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [torrey] [ In reply to ]
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It doesn’t care about bad C-19 news. It doesn’t care about the stimulus being stuck. It just keeps on roaring. //

Well then you are not reading the same news as they are. Cases seemed to have peaked and are going down at the moment, vaccines are around the corner, and there is a new spit test that only takes hours for a determination, and it seems to be pretty accurate. That is the news the market is digesting.


As for the stimulus, they know it is coming one way or the other(matter of a few weeks?), only question is it a trillion and a half, or two. So it does care about news, they just dont ascribe to the news you propose they should be looking at. That news is already in the rear view mirror, market looks ahead..


But as a thought experimen,t if there was no 2nd round of stimulus, it would crash like a flaming meteor..If you are saying you think the market is being irrational, not sure I would disagree with you on that point, I just understand why it is where it is at the moment..It's crazy what is going on, so crazy that Warren Buffett is buying gold now, something he loathed his entire investing career. I believe he thinks the normal time frame for fearful thinking(when gold goes up) is going to last a lot longer than the usual cycle. He is investing in gold now for the next couple decades I would presume, and he sold US banks and airlines at the same time..Actually looks like he is finally betting against America, as the company he bought is Canadian I believe.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Sept will see me move out of it. I think the tsunami is still coming.

Monty: NAK ROD shortly!!! Next play (Graphite One!), going in DEEP.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
The market thinks with justification a) the government is going to keep dumping money into the system b) there will be a treatment or vaccine by year end c) the only people really hurt truly hurt are bar employees everything else can and will be done with masks.

I’m thinking the market has now taken a shift away from glorifying quarterly earnings.

No way even places still operational can be pumping revenues like they did pre-China virus.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
i sold everything today. all of it, with the exception of a little bit of CAT and AAPL. i feel like i got lucky just by breaking even on my airline stocks. i'd remain in the airline stocks if i knew, for pretty well certain, they wouldn't reorganize themselves out from under my positions. i had that happen with GM back in 2008 or 09 or whenever it was. i just think we're in for a much rougher summer and fall than the market thinks.

If you were even, good move. You could always sell puts at the strike you sold at. Walk with the premium and if you get put back in, your no worse than if you didn’t sell.

Speculating where the market is going is always tough. Good luck.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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SBRcanuck wrote:
I guess everyone's situation is different based on age, etc..
I have a good 10+ before retirement (just turned 47), so I have some time to let things recover. I see it as a good buying opportunity for dividend paying stocks.
I'm in Canada (obviously), and I took advantage of the 30-50+% 'discount' compared to pre-covid, and bought into stocks like Suncor, Air Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Can't remember AC, but I believe the others pay dividends of 6+%. That plus the current low price, just seems like a no brainer. Yes, my already existing investments which were mostly in Canadian Dividend Mutual Funds, those are still down about 20% pre-covid, but I'm confident they will recover even if it takes some time. The stocks I bought into in late March/April, I got them cheap enough that I've made more on them so far than what I lost on my mutual funds. But I think they are still good buys even now.

With regards to real value of the stock market etc, I'm FAR from an expert, like really far, but correct me if I'm wrong, hasn't it been decades since the market really traded based on value?? :)

I’m the same age as you and I went all in on XOM. High dividend and while oil/gas has some issues, I think when greaves picks up again the stock should bounce. I’m going to hang tight and collect dividends. Funny thing is, bank would rather see dividends than “growth stocks” anyway. They just want to see income to prove your viability as a borrower. So, in that sense, holding a loss doesn’t matter to me.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [jharris] [ In reply to ]
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I am only a small amount of Southwest airlines stock and it’s almost back to where I bought it at. Luckily my Apple stock is up 3,570%.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [jharris] [ In reply to ]
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jharris wrote:
SBRcanuck wrote:
I guess everyone's situation is different based on age, etc..
I have a good 10+ before retirement (just turned 47), so I have some time to let things recover. I see it as a good buying opportunity for dividend paying stocks.
I'm in Canada (obviously), and I took advantage of the 30-50+% 'discount' compared to pre-covid, and bought into stocks like Suncor, Air Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Can't remember AC, but I believe the others pay dividends of 6+%. That plus the current low price, just seems like a no brainer. Yes, my already existing investments which were mostly in Canadian Dividend Mutual Funds, those are still down about 20% pre-covid, but I'm confident they will recover even if it takes some time. The stocks I bought into in late March/April, I got them cheap enough that I've made more on them so far than what I lost on my mutual funds. But I think they are still good buys even now.

With regards to real value of the stock market etc, I'm FAR from an expert, like really far, but correct me if I'm wrong, hasn't it been decades since the market really traded based on value?? :)


I’m the same age as you and I went all in on XOM. High dividend and while oil/gas has some issues, I think when greaves picks up again the stock should bounce. I’m going to hang tight and collect dividends. Funny thing is, bank would rather see dividends than “growth stocks” anyway. They just want to see income to prove your viability as a borrower. So, in that sense, holding a loss doesn’t matter to me.

Jharris, did you keep your XOM investment? Hope so. I did, as well as SU and CNQ. It has been a great month for these with the vaccine news. Hopefully others here also bought these and other energy/bank stocks at the sale prices.
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Re: Is it time to retreat back out of the market? [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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I bought back into WMB, KMI, and EPD two weeks ago. Also bought NCR because of the Square buyout rumors (very sensible acquisition IMO).
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