We honestly don't care about your SBR volume. We just want to know which races are likely a go for 2021.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

So...if 33-55% of American adults got the flu vaccine in 2018-2019 (varying by state) what percentage do you think will be willing to get a brand new barely tested carona virus vaccine?

Side note, I am all for vaccines and my kids get alllllll the cdc recommend vaccines.

Even if i want to be the first person to get that shut (and get back to normal life asap).... there will be few millions people in front of me.

Testing will happen really quick on this one.


Normal flue shut doesn't have the press that covid shut will get... i vote for 70% (assuming it's free and available)

Free?

Yeah I get that, but the risk to both sets of parents right now is too high for us. If you have a treatment that changes the equation. But it needs to be a highly effective treatment. If it’s 50% effective that doesn’t do anything from a going out at doing stuff perspective.

Although triathlon is going to be really low risk no matter which way you look at it if you’re racing local. I won’t be traveling to a race anytime soon until it’s under control. Staying in a hotel just seems like a dice roll at this point.

Sorry have I missed something!? There's a vaccine?

I think it depends on the country and their attitude. Neither the USA or the UK are doing particularly well, but are chomping at the bit to get back to normal. The UK has just announced people can now fly to a dozen plus countries for holidays, no quarantine required. Meanwhile in Australia we can't even travel interstate and won't be able to fly internationally till at least mid 2021. The UK has 45'000 deaths, Australia has around 100...

Who is saying that any vaccine that might be developed will be distributed globally having only been "barely tested"?

Well...it typically takes a vaccine a minimum of 12-18 months to get to market. If we get a vaccine available any time soon you’re telling me it’s not rushed?

Safely to get to market I thought it was more like 4 - 6 years.

That's not what I said.

We all know there are dozens of teams working hard all over the globe in efforts to produce a covid vaccine. Procedures are certainly being expedited where possible, I just don't believe it will be distributed globally with barely any testing.

Feel free to convince me otherwise, but you'll need to back up your suspicions.

As an aside, I think it's a similar probability that we'll have multiple covid vaccines, as compared to only a single vaccine being developed.

Media outlets have been declaring a vaccine to be just around the corner. Teams have been working (and failing) to develop vaccines for corona viruses for over 50 years. Realistically, there will be no vaccine. At least not for the next few years. Add the 2+ years required for testing, a vaccine is a long way off being available to Joe Public.

I just think those of us in the ultra low risk category will have to think long and hard about getting a brand new vaccine for something that has tiny personal risk.

Well, i'm from a country here people believe that no one should go bankrupt because you catch some weird bug, that exercise his "freedom" and refuse to ware a mask...


Anyway... no brainier here: social cost (slow economy) of that thing WAY exceed the cost of the future vaccine... thus it should be free for everyone

The classic 4-6 years is when people wait for conservative, test / review / publish / find money for next step / plan next step / write a PhD about previous for every single part.... in this case some companies have just finished phase 1 (of 3), and they already started ramping up for production. They will do all the other steps, and they may have to cancel the whole thing ($)... but reward could be awesome ($$$)

Let's put it this way... we are not { prick your favorite activity } until there is some form of herd immunity... which require 50-70% of the population to either get sick or get a shut.

Also, even if you want to be first in line... the reality is that few millions people will already have receive the shut... so we will know really fast if the vaccine is worse that the illness.

It will take a pretty bad vaccine for the risk of the thing to be worse that current status quo.

I didn't think there was any scope for companies to streamline testing and rush out a vaccine without following the stringent testing protocols? At the very least they need the 9 months required for testing on pregnant women (re thalidomide scandal). Typically it takes 13 years for a drug to get from the lab the shelves, the process could be sped up, but if a company discovers a vaccine today we are looking at 5+ years before it becomes available. Maybe a little sooner, but 12 - 18 months, no chance.

You really should to listen to more responsible media outlets. ;-)

While everyone is obviously hopeful, no one worth listening to is dismissing the significant possibility that there may be no vaccine.

The length of time we've been searching for corona vaccines is largely irrelevant to the odds of developing a covid vaccine in the coming years.

PCR was barely around 30 years ago, the human genome wasn't sequenced until 17 years ago. Research protocols from way back will likely have little bearing on the outcome in the coming few years. It's largely the science of now that will be relied upon to get us over the line.

Well the current status quo is a very small death rate, super high survival rate, very small chance of being hospitalized especially if healthy. Remember also, shutting down economies costs TONS of lives. Careful watching the news.

Our terrible broad sweeping lockdowns are what has killed our economy. Not the coronavirus.

Please stop using the cheap argument that "my news are better than yours"....


Those guys are doing a 30,000 people study THIS MONTH... will know real wrong with the thing
https://www.cnbc.com/...vaccine-in-july.html

Here is a list of other vaccines... 36 on the list 14 in stage one (or more)...
https://www.raps.org/...d-19-vaccine-tracker


As for the "stuff we don't know that i'm scare off" (a la antivaxer).... as an endurance athlete, while a 'moderate' case of covid will not kill you, what do you thing the long term consequences will be on your cardio...

Big doughy baby needed his mommy to teach him how to use his baby mask.

Contrary to what many people believe, young people are ending up in the hospital. The latest data from AZ shows that 22% of hospitalizations are in the 20-44 age category. I would expect that many of these people were healthy before getting sick.

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Andrew Inkpen

Also remember, many hospitals (including mine) is testing every admission for covid. So you have many hospitalized patients that presented for some other reason that test positive for coronavirus even though it’s unrelated to their illness. They still count as a covid hospitalization.

And I take care of MANY 20-44 year olds on a daily basis who are not healthy at all. Tons of them smoke and are obese. Tons.