Nate, I’m 100% in agreement from a USA and WTC centric viewpoint. I’ve held that stance since March. There was a point in late-May when I thought that maybe we could have some IM or 70.3 racing this year in a scaled back form. Reopening seemed to be going okay in the states that were more aggressive in opening. I thought maybe in some of those business first red states like TX or FL we might see some races. Then things took a very dark turn the past couple of weeks.

I have been paying very close attention to COVID numbers in FL where I live, in TX where I just moved from, and NY where I grew up and where parents/siblings live. About 2-3 weeks ago I saw the trends in FL and TX. Positive cases were far outpacing testing, positivity rate was climbing rapidly, and the median age of individuals with positive tests was dropping like a rock. With my own eyes I saw how flippant Floridians in my area were being and it alarmed me. I told my wife two weeks ago that we (Florida) were going to be in a lot of trouble. Then the news reporting started to pick up the trends. Texas was following a near exact path as Florida. Both states were turning into shitshows.

Look at how many of the 2020 races not yet canceled are in FL, TX, AZ, CA. 14 of the 30 IM/70.3 races on the 2020 calendar are in those four states. There’s zero chance those races happen. Then there’s races in North Carolina, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Washington. Zero chance those races happen. Then you have four races in TN and GA. Southern states that are also trending in the wrong direction likely to see similar issues as FL and TX in the coming weeks and months. So those races aren’t likely happening.

That leaves eight races left in Utah, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland (2), Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Doesn’t look like the officials in WI are going to allow IM Moo to happen. Kentucky’s Governor and Louisville’s Mayor are democrats and their reopening strategy is fairly cautious and conservative. So can’t see mass gatherings allowed. That leaves St. George, Coeur d’Alene, Muncie, Cambridge, and Des Moines. Places with small to very small populations. Are they going to risk holding mass gatherings of out of towners in their small area that might not have a COVID problem? So they can make a few bucks? Is it worth it?

Things are also likely to get worse. The reopening strategies in FL and TX were an obvious disaster in hindsight. I hope other states are paying close attention and learn what not to do and be a bit more cautious and conservative in their reopening policies. Which would not include holding any sort of mass gathering event.

My 2 cents anyway.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

As far as I know, this race apparently happened today in Orlando Florida.

35th Annual Cool Sommer Mornings Triathlon-Duathlon-5K Series #1

I'm a bit surprised, and not sure its a good idea. Florida just "closed the bars" (prohibited inside alcohol sales). But inside, with recycled air, is much worse than outside, so maybe it's fine. But if this turns into a spreader event, the optics definitely aren't good.

I haven't seen results to confirm it actually did happen, but as of Thursday it was supposedly still on

I raced it this morning and believe it to have been a low risk activity. Between the international tri, sprint tri, and 5K race I would guess maybe 200 to 300 athletes. There was also a local sprint triathlon last weekend in Sarasoto. The schedule is jammed from here on. Please don't put this in the same category as bars which are driving the spike. The growing consensus on transmission is extended indoor presence (15 mins or more), typically face to face, with an infected person. YMMV

Vermont Overland ( great gravel race with big names ie Ted King, Peter Stetina) race director has said he is intent on holding the race at end of August. only thing stopping would be federal or state mandates. one of his main points was that we all need "something" to look forward to right now, and i believe he is right. i agree with the other poster that this is inherently a low risk event, with the biggest risk being extending time at the start line. Overland is giving out bandanas as swag, can be used for a face mask at the start line.

Totally different sport, but they were running some races on the Charles today (all in the 1x, that is). Figure if rowing can happen safely, there is hope for other activities. I agree with your notion of being grateful, and while I remain disappointed, there are many more years ahead, if things don't work out this year.

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Clubs/Affiliations: The Rippers / Charles River Wheelers / Cambridge Sports Union

Paul, I think we can agree that 200 or 300 people is far different than a multi-day function like Ironman Florida or Arizona where the combined number of athletes and their families (almost entirely from out of town), volunteers, race staff, emergency personnel, and spectators is probably greater than 10,000.

Let’s not make some equivalency here.

Also, the jury is still far from reaching a verdict on outdoors transmission. Is it less than indoors? Yes, with absolute certainty. But by how much? We still don’t really know.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Hey Bob. We are all looking at the same thing and coming to very different conclusions. Since I am not a M.D., I have based all my understanding on the virus from top epidemiologists and research centers whom I trust, most notably the Oxford University Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Dr Osterholm from the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease and Research.

I also believe the conclusions one draws from current events is governed by the outcome you expect from all this. I.e., some people think the virus will go away completely if we all just stay inside (fantasy). Some think a vaccine will be ready by January (not likely). But based on what I've read, I don't think there is any outcome other than COVID running its course until we reach the so-called herd immunity level. As an example, Italy is already close to that target as shown here: https://www.sciencetimes.com/...s-epicenter-what.htm

Scientists believe that for every positive test there are 10 more positives not yet identified. That suggests to me we are further along in the spread than the strict reported numbers dictate. That's also why the presumed IFR is so much lower than the original speculation several months ago. The current spike in cases shows that an expected summer trough followed by a 2nd wave is unlikely. That thinking was stictly based on the 1918 flu and is already being shown to be a poor analogy. Dr Osterholm characterizes COVID more as brush fire that will burn until it runs out of fuel - so back to the herd immunity thing. His view is that the worst is yet to come and the deaths will continue even with a projected IFR between 0.1 and 0.41% (Oxford CEBM).

I'm hopeful we'll reach that sooner than later otherwise the turn of the calendar to 2021 doesn't offer anything different. Here's the pessimistic view from Osterholm: https://www.bluezones.com/...dicted-the-pandemic/

As to Florida, I think the big events at the end of the year will take place because the brush fire will have cleared the path. That includes IM Florida, Miami Man, IM70.3 Florida and Challenge Daytona. I also don't think any of these will have the normal specator crowds and families if we are still in the worst of the pandemic. But I would be the first to admit that it's just an opinion that could prove way off. Meanwhile, here's how you are most likely to catch COVID recognizing that you could still get a full viral load outdoors if someone infectious sneezed in your face. https://www.wsj.com/...onsensus-11592317650

Finally, for what's it worth, the Premier Girls FastPitch Softball Tournament at the Clermont National Training Center this weekend vastly outstripped Sommer Sports triathlon. My hotel, which had maybe a dozen triathletes, was full of girls and their families there for the tournament. I drove by the NTC for breakfast after the race and it sure looked like a mass event was going on.

I can agree with your comments about most of us being amateur and not racing is truly a first world problem. However, the concept that life or death hangs in the balance is false. It's clear that covid dramatically affects the oldest and the sickest of the population. Simply having an increase in infections doesn't mean there can't be racing. The risk of getting a significant enough viral load outside to be symptomatic truly is minimal.

It appears that those who ban everything somehow believe we can "beat" the virus and adopt a wartime culture surrounding it. Science shows covid is innocuous for the vast majority. People should evaluate their own risk levels and whether or not it's worth it to race. I think we should stop closing and banning everything and adopt a more focused approach.

With due respect, why? ST is literally built for speculation. speculation about everything related to triathlon. When is Nike coming out with a new shoe? What kind of crazy training is Lionel doing? On and on.

There literally is no bigger story, in relation to triathlon - for professionals and hobbyists - then whether races will happen this year.

My advice: just don't open the threads if you don't want to join in speculation.

Of course there will be threads about future races. Because the very people who inhabit this place are some of the most interested in those races. 2-3 weeks ago, many people thought for sure races would happen this fall. In last week, that is proving much more doubtful. I now would be shocked if races happen. But, who the hell knows? Who knows what some states, some cities, some places may or may not do in a couple months. No one here knows. At all.

Hence, speculation.

Cheers

It is ok to be optimistic.

In British Columbia Canada we have under 12 cases per day and are opening up water slide parks, theaters and my kids went to school all June. They are allowing all non essential travel within the province next week.

Ironman 70.3 victoria was scheduled for Aug 9 th but has since been cancelled. I think the way things are going here that race would have worked for all western Canadians to attend.

I am registered For Calgary 70.3 Sept 5th. Again the way things are going here I see this is likely happening and hope it does.

New Zealand can race too.

Keep in mind we had a two month quarantine and stopped major spread. march 13 - may 31.

Unfortunately the races south of the border have too much politics controlling health. If your leadership committed to a hard lock down early we could be more optimistic about the fall races, however.

Keep in mind it is not too late to take a hard one month lock down in US right now and get things better for the fall, but then again the leadership thing....

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

I mean I did say:

I didn't mean to direct that to you personally. My comment was directed to the general public since there are people who would have all of us on lockdown indefinitely. As long as hospital capacity is not overrun I am for pushing the limit on what can be open and then letting people choose based on their own risk profile. For example, I personally would not go to a bar, to the movies, to a concert, or to a football, basketball, hockey or baseball game but if they are available and people want to go then good for them. I do intend to participate in more triathlons, gran fondos, century rides and open water swim events this year if they are not canceled.

Actually, probability of indoor vs outdoor spread has been quantified for quite a while now. Study in Japan estimated risk of spread is 19 times greater indoors.

https://www.sciencemag.org/...n-t-spread-virus-all


The factor scientists are closest to understanding is where COVID-19 clusters are likely to occur. “Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside,” Althaus says. Researchers in China studying the spread of the coronavirus outside Hubei province—ground zero for the pandemic—identified 318 clusters of three or more cases between 4 January and 11 February, only one of which originated outdoors. A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)

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Strava

Is the buzzards bay tri still on? Lol I don’t do tri but my wife has been trying to get into them (she did whaling city and title 9 last year). Unfortunately whaling city it out but no call yet on buzzards bay as far as we know.

As primarily a Cx racer I’ve already heard of one of my favorite events being cancelled so I’m not expecting much of a season. I should be just riding outside and doing epic weekend miles but I’m inside like a sucker doing a trainerroad progression to peak for something that prob won’t happen lol

Sounds to me like you are speculating :)

Yeah that was definitely speculation

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

…….and it is off to the races again in Thailand with the running of one of the Tri-Dash Series races today in Bangkok.A grass roots event with 84men and 24 women in a super sprint distance race..

http://www.tridashthailand.com/
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The title was 2020 Races - NOT 2020 IM or 70.3 so Paul was absolutely on-point with his comment.

So I actually just registered for this two days ago, I didn't have a single race 'officially' on the calendar despite the intention to do at least half a dozen this summer. The good thing about this race is the bike course/run is entirely within one town, so it may be easier for them to obtain permits than other events which may cross into multiple jurisdictions.

With an entry fee under $100 its not the largest risk, and knowing the Race Director, they have been offering the option to defer entry to the next years event should it end up getting canceled due to COVID (at least that was an option for Harvest Tri)

I figure having at least SOMETHING to look forward to is better than nothing, and I'd rather be temporarily out $100 in the case of a 1 year postponement, compared to waiting too long to enter, and finding out the race is full and not being able to participate as a result.

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Clubs/Affiliations: The Rippers / Charles River Wheelers / Cambridge Sports Union

Westport is great, I ride there when I can when I’m home (I’m from New Bedford originally). Hoping to do an epic ride down there next weekend. I get a lot of joy out of just training but I can definitely get why people are antsy to compete and have the outlet for their training. Hope something happens (safely of course)

Fair point.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One