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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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tri_yoda wrote:
In what ways is the rest of the US not like the NE?
I never said anything like "since it did not happen it won't happen." I observed that other states are appearing to decouple themselves from NY as a possible future.

The way that NY, and NYC in particular, is different from the US and the rest of the world is that it has the highest case rate and death rate on the planet.

We may never know the why. It could be some combination of high population density, high living density, high density mass transportation, 100K travelers from Wuhan to JFK from time of first Wuhan infection, mandating sick people go to nursing homes, heavy commuter travel from a broad surrounding region, etc. NYC is singularly the worst in the world by a huge margin. And, the surrounding states are some of the worst in the world. The wave that everyone feared does not look like it is going to happen anywhere else. It looks like states are beginning to make reopening decisions based on the data and trends of their states and counties and not projecting the doomsday NY-based scenarios.
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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alex_korr wrote:
tri_yoda wrote:
exxxviii wrote:
The reality that most of the country is not like the NE is starting to dawn on the country, and it is driving many of the re-openings.


In what ways is the rest of the US not like the NE? It is correct, there has been a much higher rate of infection and the majority of deaths (so far) have been in the Northeast. But I am interested in understanding what you consider are the inherent differences (age, geography, existing health conditions, whatever?) between the rest of the country and NE that would make it impossible at any point in the future to see the kind of carnage we saw in the NE?

Just using NYC as an example, to my knowledge, nobody at this point has a clear explanation of why NYC was impacted so badly, but LA and Houston so far have not been. Until we know the exact "why" of what has happened so far, I would be very hesitant to speculate about what is different (or not) and what may happen in the rest of 2020. Different people have "speculated", but nobody has produced a mechanistic explanation based on objective data.

So all I am questioning, is what is the underlying mechanism to explain your perception other than "since it didn't happen yet, it won't happen". I do agree with you (because the indisputable data shows this) that the Northeast is on the order of at least 10X worse than the rest of the US (after 3 months of COVID).


IMO, it's not that hard to explain. I am in LA and I have been following the data very closely.

LA doesn't have a lot of public transportation and it also has a much lower density of the population. The areas of LA where people live in cramped quarters and use a lot of public transportation (ie East and Central LA + poorer areas of the SF valley) have noticeably higher rates of infection. Richer areas (ie West LA, the eastern part of the 134 corridor, Hollywood Hills, San Gabriel, etc) had very few cases if you exclude the convalescent facilities, the old folks homes and the cases of people coming back from skiing vacations in Europe with Covid. In my town of 105k people, literally half of cases and 95% of fatalities came from 2 convalescent facilities.

So just to be clear, you are identifying public transportation (large number of people in close proximity) as a major contributing cause to severe outbreaks that occurred in the Northeast. But you (or others on this thread) are surprised at cancellation of large events and the skepticism from some (myself included) about the ability to hold large races in 2020.

As someone who has ridden the MBTA (Boston metro subway) many times, as well as someone who has stood in the starting corrals at Boston and IMLP (and numerous other large events): The closest approximation to the level of personal contact with strangers that occurs in a subway (beside a subway itself), is being in the starting corral at a major road race or ironman event. Hence, my extreme skepticism that any large athletic events are going to happen in CY 2020 in the US.

How do you reconcile having large athletic events with the COVID risk you have cited associated with riding public transportation. Tell me how staging in the starting corrals at Boston (as well as the 45 minute ride on a packed bus to get there) has a different risk profile than riding the subway?
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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exxxviii wrote:
[

We may never know the why.

But you understand, that until we do know why, no basis exists to say it can't happen somewhere else?

We don't get concerned about major malarial infections in the US (because we know it is basically impossible for them to happen), even though they are frequent in Africa. That is because we have a very high level of understanding of exactly how malaria spreads.

So I am only interested in understanding where people developed idea that after only 3 months of experience with a novel virus that already killed 100,000 people, that what happened in the Northeast cannot happen anywhere else in the US. And I am not projecting that it will (or won't), I'm only being humble enough to observe that at this time we do not have sufficient information available to rule it out and should proceed with extreme with respect to obviously risky (and completely unnecessary) recreational events like major marathons or IM.
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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Anyone who has been on a NYC subway at rush hour will appreciate why it is the epicenter of CV-19. You are packed into cars with 3,4 or 5 other people in physical contact with you. You are contorting yourself around them, smelling their breath or BO, gripping the same sticky handles, etc.
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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tri_yoda wrote:
alex_korr wrote:
tri_yoda wrote:
exxxviii wrote:
The reality that most of the country is not like the NE is starting to dawn on the country, and it is driving many of the re-openings.


In what ways is the rest of the US not like the NE? It is correct, there has been a much higher rate of infection and the majority of deaths (so far) have been in the Northeast. But I am interested in understanding what you consider are the inherent differences (age, geography, existing health conditions, whatever?) between the rest of the country and NE that would make it impossible at any point in the future to see the kind of carnage we saw in the NE?

Just using NYC as an example, to my knowledge, nobody at this point has a clear explanation of why NYC was impacted so badly, but LA and Houston so far have not been. Until we know the exact "why" of what has happened so far, I would be very hesitant to speculate about what is different (or not) and what may happen in the rest of 2020. Different people have "speculated", but nobody has produced a mechanistic explanation based on objective data.

So all I am questioning, is what is the underlying mechanism to explain your perception other than "since it didn't happen yet, it won't happen". I do agree with you (because the indisputable data shows this) that the Northeast is on the order of at least 10X worse than the rest of the US (after 3 months of COVID).


IMO, it's not that hard to explain. I am in LA and I have been following the data very closely.

LA doesn't have a lot of public transportation and it also has a much lower density of the population. The areas of LA where people live in cramped quarters and use a lot of public transportation (ie East and Central LA + poorer areas of the SF valley) have noticeably higher rates of infection. Richer areas (ie West LA, the eastern part of the 134 corridor, Hollywood Hills, San Gabriel, etc) had very few cases if you exclude the convalescent facilities, the old folks homes and the cases of people coming back from skiing vacations in Europe with Covid. In my town of 105k people, literally half of cases and 95% of fatalities came from 2 convalescent facilities.


So just to be clear, you are identifying public transportation (large number of people in close proximity) as a major contributing cause to severe outbreaks that occurred in the Northeast. But you (or others on this thread) are surprised at cancellation of large events and the skepticism from some (myself included) about the ability to hold large races in 2020.

As someone who has ridden the MBTA (Boston metro subway) many times, as well as someone who has stood in the starting corrals at Boston and IMLP (and numerous other large events): The closest approximation to the level of personal contact with strangers that occurs in a subway (beside a subway itself), is being in the starting corral at a major road race or ironman event. Hence, my extreme skepticism that any large athletic events are going to happen in CY 2020 in the US.

How do you reconcile having large athletic events with the COVID risk you have cited associated with riding public transportation. Tell me how staging in the starting corrals at Boston (as well as the 45 minute ride on a packed bus to get there) has a different risk profile than riding the subway?

I am totally not surprised at the cancelled events. Not sure where you got that from. I agree with your point about large events not likely to happen in 2020.

Next races on the schedule: none at the moment
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [RandMart] [ In reply to ]
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RandMart wrote:
First Tom Brady, then Gronk, now this

That's not pink, that's fact.

My race site: https://racesandplaces.wixsite.com/racesandplaces
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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I think we are talking about 2 different things. I am talking about what appears to be happening, and I think you are talking about what you think should be happening. Many states are beginning to reopen. I think it is because governors are seeing that their numbers are not that bad. It looks like those states are moving in a direction to host bigger events and activities. If numbers tank, they many dial back. Or not.
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Re: boston marathon cancelled for 2020 [347CX] [ In reply to ]
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I had planned this to be my last marathon ever (this time for sure), and I wanted to run Boston while my daughter is at BU.

I guess I could technically sign up for 2021 using my existing BQ (plenty of room under the cut off). But, the daughter unit (in theory) will be studying abroad at that point, so one of my primary reasons to run it may not be in play.

I guess I'll wait for September to make a decision.

A comment on why I plan to stop racing marathons.....They're really hard. At no point have I participated in a marathon where I took it easy and paced myself to relax and enjoy the experience. I can't help but get competitive and this (on multiple occasions) resulted in me running beyond what my training level would support. I've had some fast times and I've had flame out's. The aftermath has been the same. Ouch.

I suppose it won't be long before I take up golf. Ugh.
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