WTC have to keep customers in the game so they will just keep stalling the inevitable and transfer people to events that most likely won't happen...

That said,if any government thinks the sport of triathlon or running races or festivals or concerts or public transport or restaurants or bars or etc,etc,etc can survive the future with the current idea of social distancing then they are in for a big shock..

What ‘science’ says infections are increasing?

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Ruble Triathlon Coaching Average of 30 coached PR's per year
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I think increasing cases is a reasonable assumption. The country as a whole is on a plateau of ~ 2K deaths and 35K new cases per day, and we are about to relax social distancing in many states or have already. Extrapolate this out to September, October, and November when the roll-over races are being offered by WTC and cross reference that with likely out-of-state visitor quarantine policies and mass gathering policies and it looks unlikely that fall IMs will go off as planned.

Some thoughts:

• Except for the mostly cities that experienced bad/steep outbreaks then lockdown and then steep declines of new cases and deaths, the rest of America as a whole is seeing a plateau or gradual increase in new cases. The R0 is increasing or already above 1 in many states.
• OTOH, if you remove the worst states where things are increasing like the worst hit cities, then that remainder of America is not increasing.
• On the other other hand, even the states that saw steep declines like NY and LA are starting to see an increase in R0.

Finally, I think one can reasonably presume that as social distancing guidance starts to relax during this slight increase that cases will increase.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

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Since you're talking to Messick here, I think it is allowed to add a bit of philosophy to the thread! :)

It western countries human life is considered priceless. It is impossible to attach price to a human and build an economic relation between those two objects. All mentioning of statistical human value in dollars are only used to compare investments into public safety between each other, not to exchange money for lives.

Because entrepreneurs are fast and smart. In 2 weeks we're going to have a full blown slavery and cleansing of 'cheap people' in order to have more room for 'expensive people' in densely populated areas :)

But societies change. I think we can observe that more and more people do want to exchange money for lives and vice-versa. So, WTC might be right and we'll have race openings sooner rather than later. If they lobby correct politicians and the price is right.

we're going to have this conversation here, or not have it here, depending on whether we all behave like adults or like 11th graders. 11th graders say whatever is on their minds. adults consider the consequences of their speech. if you all want to write like 11th graders, i created a place just for you, it's another forum, and you all know where it is.

if you want to write like adults, you'll leave the politics behind when you're in THIS forum. on this basis you may have this conversation here.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I see several potential hurdles for large races

1. USAT says 3-4 ft between bikes on racks and iirc ITU said 2m. You're going to need larger transition areas & expo areas and that's going to cost more

2. port o johns are traditionally stacked close together with lines often 20 people deep. You're going to need more space between them and more of them to reduce people density near there which also leads back to point 1

3. WTC already tends to put too many people on too little of a course or has courses that can't really hold the # of people they have in a race leading to packs on the bike, lots of people around each other on the run. With lower race participation #'s some of the racer density issues may be mitigated. If you have the same # of people you're going to have to spread the start times out even more. Let's face it, drafting is often an issue at WT events in NA

4. Expos have too many tables to go to check in. That's going to have to be reduced as well as spread out. See point 1 above.

5. WTC "encourages" one to hang around the race venue. mandatory 3-4night stay in host hotel. For IM awards are the next day. For 70.3 you often can go to lunch, shower at the hotel, hit another place for beers, then have a second lunch somewhere else and still have to kill an hour or so before awards start. You're not going to have an awards banquet (or pre race banquet ) and for 70.3 the awards are often around 3 or 3:30. No one is going to want to hang around others for that long waiting for a piece of metal.

6. You have to reduce touch points. That's going to be tough. aid stations, security for keeping bikes safe overnight, port o johns, expo, awards, parking, on course medical, post event medical, cops, bike support (If you go to bike tech each of the 3d before an IM the # of bikes needing serious work is amazing) and the list goes on. Easily one has 2000 within 6ft interactions from the time you arrive at a WTC event until you leave even if many of those are randomly walking past someone at the expo or bike check in etc

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Oh 'confirmed cases' that's very reliable given we have upwards of 50 times(some reports saying as high as 100 times) as many non/mild symptom cases per what's been reported....just a wee bit of margin to play with there daily. Very scientific to use this number.

Not seeing that on Florida here? DeSantis is a boss handling all this so well.
https://www.worldometers.info/...navirus/usa/florida/

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Ruble Triathlon Coaching Average of 30 coached PR's per year
Florida Triathlon Camps Train in North Americas winter training destination
Ruble Racing Events Midwest Triathlon Racing
Ruble Timing Midwest Event Timing