After StG got cancelled, I transferred into Louisville. So i've thought a bit about this.

2 factors working against it happening, 1 in favor:

In favor... timeline. October is a reasonably long time from now. We may well wrestle this thing down by then and this could all feel like a fever dream.

Against... democratic governor and city/ metro size. Blue states have taken a much more cautious approach, so I don't expect that KY ill be on the bleeding edge of re-opening, signing off on large event permitting, etc. I call out city size, because after the statehouse, you work your way down the chain of local gov. There are 1.2 mil in louisville metro, 600k in the city itself. I cant see any louisville metro/ city in 2020 giving out big event permits in cy 2020.

if you are hoping to race, pick a small city venue in a state with a gop gov

Considering on the national level the disease is still accelerating and they're projecting upwards of 2,500 to 3000 deaths per day by August I would say nothing is happening.
I also don't understand why this needs to be a political thing on either side.

Judging from IM Muncie which is still a go for July 11th, the IM organization seems to be taking the approach that unless the race is strictly prohibited, it’s going to be put on.

July is too far out for them to make any changes, need to wait until a month or so prior, then the changes are announced....at least that seems to be pretty consistent with how others have been handled so far.

Indiana has various stages for reopening. July 4th is the date for opening mass gatherings like festivals, summer events, and other mass gatherings. Unless this changes, it would be allowed u dear the state guidelines. While I hope it is postponed until fall every published information from the IM Muncie group has indicated it’s on. They have even offered swim training tips!

Also just received this:

Thank you for reaching out. At this stage, we will be proceeding with the IRONMAN 70.3 Muncie event as planned in July. We want to remind you that all our withdrawal policies remain in effect and can be viewed on the website below under "registration options" with a withdrawal deadline on or before May 27.

I'd be surprised if anything happens this year but the optimist in me is hoping that we will have a flattening by mid summer (after the inevitable rise after states reopen) which will allow IMLOU to squeeze in before the winter flu/COVID season starts back up in late Oct/Nov. IMO, it's going to be a shitstorm of badness this winter.