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Home > Forum > Lavender Room > "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat

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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [eb] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
chaparral
Mar 25, 20 9:25
Post #176 of 183 (886 views)
eb wrote:
Having passed up his initial plateful of crow and doubled down, I suspect he will be eating crow for the rest of his life.

Haha, thanks I could use a laugh. Sadly, I think there will still be lots of people taking him seriously in the future.
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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [MJuric] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
rruff
Mar 25, 20 9:46
Post #177 of 183 (874 views)
MJuric wrote:
....need of ventilators.

80-90% of people who go on vents die anyway (study based on data from China). https://www.thelancet.com/...(20)30110-7/fulltext

IMO this kinda blows up the original story that we needed to avoid overwhelming the HC system at all costs... since they don't have effective treatments, anyway.

Some things off the top of my head that would be really good to know:

1)The real mortality rate.
The CFD is all over the place. We need random testing to estimate how many are infected but do not go to the hospital and get counted. If it's in the range of a bad flu season (<0.5%) then we really don't need to go apeshit about it. Unlike the flu, this virus isn't killing little kids. Losing your 1 year old daughter is a hugely bigger deal than losing Grandma who's been hanging on in the nursing home for 5 years.
2) The effectiveness of hospitalization.
If I was sick enough to "need" hospitalization I'd want to know what their real success rate is. Because once you go in, you can't have visitors. I'd rather die at home with someone I love near, than alone in the chaos ward of the hospital with a bunch of tubes stuck in me.
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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [rruff] [ In reply to ]
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MJuric
Mar 25, 20 10:44
Post #178 of 183 (841 views)
rruff wrote:
MJuric wrote:
....need of ventilators.


80-90% of people who go on vents die anyway (study based on data from China). https://www.thelancet.com/...(20)30110-7/fulltext

IMO this kinda blows up the original story that we needed to avoid overwhelming the HC system at all costs... since they don't have effective treatments, anyway.

Some things off the top of my head that would be really good to know:

1)The real mortality rate.
The CFD is all over the place. We need random testing to estimate how many are infected but do not go to the hospital and get counted. If it's in the range of a bad flu season (<0.5%) then we really don't need to go apeshit about it. Unlike the flu, this virus isn't killing little kids. Losing your 1 year old daughter is a hugely bigger deal than losing Grandma who's been hanging on in the nursing home for 5 years.
2) The effectiveness of hospitalization.
If I was sick enough to "need" hospitalization I'd want to know what their real success rate is. Because once you go in, you can't have visitors. I'd rather die at home with someone I love near, than alone in the chaos ward of the hospital with a bunch of tubes stuck in me.

Not only the real mortality rate but also the real targets. I keep hearing that this does not effect the young and healthy yet I know someone healthy and 29 who just passed away from Covid.

We don't have enough data to make good decisions. We could be way over reacting or not acting harsh enough. We won't know until we get more data.

I hate to keep using S Korea as an example but they seem to be the only one that is on the other side of the curve of this that we also think is probably being 100% truthful and accurate. They are testing 20K people a day and have test ~360K total on a significantly smaller population. By comparison the US is sitting at around 70K total tests to date. They are showing an ~1.4% mortality rate compared to typical Influenza A and B of ~.1%
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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [MJuric] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Pedalsaurus
Mar 25, 20 10:50
Post #179 of 183 (832 views)
your testing data is way off. We have done closer to 400,000 tests over 80% of the tests are coming back negative.
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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [MJuric] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Uncle Arqyle
Mar 25, 20 10:55
Post #180 of 183 (824 views)
MJuric wrote:
rruff wrote:
MJuric wrote:
....need of ventilators.


80-90% of people who go on vents die anyway (study based on data from China). https://www.thelancet.com/...(20)30110-7/fulltext

IMO this kinda blows up the original story that we needed to avoid overwhelming the HC system at all costs... since they don't have effective treatments, anyway.

Some things off the top of my head that would be really good to know:

1)The real mortality rate.
The CFD is all over the place. We need random testing to estimate how many are infected but do not go to the hospital and get counted. If it's in the range of a bad flu season (<0.5%) then we really don't need to go apeshit about it. Unlike the flu, this virus isn't killing little kids. Losing your 1 year old daughter is a hugely bigger deal than losing Grandma who's been hanging on in the nursing home for 5 years.
2) The effectiveness of hospitalization.
If I was sick enough to "need" hospitalization I'd want to know what their real success rate is. Because once you go in, you can't have visitors. I'd rather die at home with someone I love near, than alone in the chaos ward of the hospital with a bunch of tubes stuck in me.


Not only the real mortality rate but also the real targets. I keep hearing that this does not effect the young and healthy yet I know someone healthy and 29 who just passed away from Covid.

We don't have enough data to make good decisions. We could be way over reacting or not acting harsh enough. We won't know until we get more data.

I hate to keep using S Korea as an example but they seem to be the only one that is on the other side of the curve of this that we also think is probably being 100% truthful and accurate. They are testing 20K people a day and have test ~360K total on a significantly smaller population. By comparison the US is sitting at around 70K total tests to date. They are showing an ~1.4% mortality rate compared to typical Influenza A and B of ~.1%

Japan has also been effective. Your US numbers are way off from what is being reported.
Quote Reply
Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [MJuric] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
rruff
Mar 25, 20 11:05
Post #181 of 183 (812 views)
MJuric wrote:
Not only the real mortality rate but also the real targets. I keep hearing that this does not effect the young and healthy yet I know someone healthy and 29 who just passed away from Covid.

Anecdotes...

MJuric wrote:
I hate to keep using S Korea as an example but they seem to be the only one that is on the other side of the curve of this that we also think is probably being 100% truthful and accurate. They are testing 20K people a day and have test ~360K total on a significantly smaller population. By comparison the US is sitting at around 70K total tests to date. They are showing an ~1.4% mortality rate compared to typical Influenza A and B of ~.1%

Korea has still only tested 360K/52M or 0.7% of their population. Their mortality rate is surely way less than the 1.4% CFR.

Imperfect data still, but here is an Oxford study that indicates 2/3rds of the UK has been infected or is immune. https://www.dropbox.com/...%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [rruff] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Pedalsaurus
Mar 25, 20 11:09
Post #182 of 183 (804 views)
Exactly!
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Re: "this thing is going to Bankrupt more people than it will kill" Yes another Virus threat [eb] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
eb
Apr 1, 20 23:28
Post #183 of 183 (709 views)
eb wrote:
Slowman wrote:

that is insightful.


Just for contrast, here's something that's less than insightful.

https://www.hoover.org/...avirus-isnt-pandemic

TLDR:
Think-tank "expert" Richard Epstein prognosticates that US deaths will not exceed 500. When they do, he grudgingly raises his estimate to 5000.

Having passed up his initial plateful of crow and doubled down, I suspect he will be eating crow for the rest of his life.

Well, I hate to say it, but it only took a week for this clown to be proven wrong again. As of April 1 we've exceeded 5,000 U.S. deaths, unfortunately.

His latest column (https://www.hoover.org/...osts-total-lockdowns) raises the question "First, what are the likely number of deaths from the coronavirus"? And then, after calling Fauci "alarmist", he says "There is also a second approach, with which I identify, that sees this problem as being akin to previous episodes of the flu, and is consistent with the lower end of the Fauci estimates."

Which would be 100,000. So it's "alarmist", but he identifies with it.

In two weeks he's gone from 500 to 5,000 to 100,000. Why are they paying this idiot?
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