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DC marathon -- which pace group should I follow?
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Caveat: Race is in 3 weeks. As of now, there are no updates on the web site re: corona virus, so for now I will assume the race is going on as planned.

So, I've been training for this, my third marathon (first one in ten years!) with Hal Higdon's "Marathon 3" program. It's a 24-week-program w/ three runs (one progressively longer mid-week run, one tempo/interval run, and one long weekend run), one day swim, one day bike (been doing Sufferfest videos) and two rest days. Training has been going well -- skipped one week over xmas, but other than that I was able to follow the plan to the T.

I just wrapped up my third 20 mile run in the last 6 weeks @ 3:12, 3:09 and 3:09 (same course each time). They each had about 500 feet of climbing which is a tad bit more than the race course will have. So, where does that put me on race day? I haven't found many race predictors online based on 20-mile times. I am quite tired and looking forward to a taper. According to my Garmin, my "performance condition" is going into the negatives, which confirms my fatigue. That being said, I tend to recover well during a taper and tend to out-perform my training during races. That, plus race day adrenaline and running with a group lead me to believe I can run between 4:05-4:10 (or at least that is what I want to chase!).

There is a 4:00 pace group, and a 4:10 pace group. Do I start with the former knowing I'll probably fall back somewhere around mile 16 or so and need to drag myself to finish line, or do I start w/ the 4:10 pace group knowing I'll need to go ahead on my own around mile 16 to try to make up some time to get to 4:05, or do I just go out on my own (I am not very confident in my pacing abilities - nor do I consider myself a runner!)?

Me: F, going on 46, 5'7", 137 lbs, BMI 21.

So, any wisdom for me ST? I have three weeks minus one day to wrap my head around this :o.

Thank you
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Re: DC marathon -- which pace group should I follow? [The Kraut] [ In reply to ]
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If you are looking to go between 4:05-4:10, I'd go with the 4:10 group. Stick with them until miles 15-18 and assess the legs. If feeling good then maybe pick the pace up a little and try to see if you pick off a couple minutes in the last "half" of the race.

If you really want to hit 4:05 then going with the 4:10 group may not be smart. Negative splitting by 5 minutes is going to be really hard unless you really sandbagged the first half of the race, which would mean you should have just stuck with the 4:00 group in the first place. I would probably start in between the groups and see if you can find an unofficial 4:05 group. Especially in the beginning of the race there will be a lot of people running between 4:00 and 4:10. Once the field thins out just find people to follow that are going your pace. Keep an eye on the watch and as those people begin to drop move to the next person keeping your pace. Rinse and Repeat to the finish.
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Re: DC marathon -- which pace group should I follow? [FuzzyRunner] [ In reply to ]
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A couple points--first, you can't trust the pace group to be spot on, sometimes pacers decide to "put a little in the bank" or whatever, so you need to watch the pace on your own watch. Second, at your pace in that race, it may take a couple miles just to get sorted because of the crowding, so you may be forced into going out easy.

Lastly, every mile you run at the slower pace, you are losing 12 seconds. If you dawdle around until the half way point, you have to pick up the pace by 24 seconds per mile. That's doubtful unless you were in 4 flat pace to begin with.

All other things being equal, I'd look to take the first mile out with the group, then run the second mile about 6 secs faster, then by mile 3 be settled into your race pace for the day. Use you watch, listen to your body, leave the headphones home and spend the 4 hours focusing on running your best race. There is so much to do and think about during the race that you will be busy in your mind. You don't need a group to help you pace and distract you from the work of running your best race.

If you stink at pacing, you still have time to work on it, even if it means jumping in a 10k and running it at marathon pace for practice, running miles on the track at pace or doing a longer tempo run at pace. Learn to feel the pace.

And good luck, it's a wonderful accomplishment.
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Re: DC marathon -- which pace group should I follow? [The Kraut] [ In reply to ]
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I am presuming those 29 milers are not really raced based/simulations efforts, so I would definitely be starting with the 4:00 group at the least. Depending on how you train versus race I think you will find you might want to set another target to potentially be faster as well...the taper etc will do you wonders.
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Re: DC marathon -- which pace group should I follow? [The Kraut] [ In reply to ]
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This one is easy, you go with the 4 hour group and shoot for 3;59.59. Anything above that doesnt matter if it is one second, or 15 minutes. Your long runs indicate you have a good chance at breaking 4 if you hit a good taper, so what you waiting for??? Go for it!! (-;
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