Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Prev Next
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
slowguy wrote:
Quote:
You really don't understand our elections if you think the reason that candidates go to the middle out the primaries. They go to the middle to appeal to the most voters. You know what system would result in candidates wanting to appeal the most voters, the popular vote.


You're simply wrong. If a candidate could win just with the popular vote, they would concentrate only on their narrow base, and hit a few key issues to build up the biggest block they could. They would focus on high population density areas to the exclusion of smaller less densely populated States. We would also become inundated with third, fourth, fifth party candidates keyed into small issue bases, and further diluting the vote. eventually we'd have candidates who could campaign solely in big cities (for example), and win an election with 20% of the vote while everyone else split the rest.

Someone could now win the EC with 20% of the vote. So no different that the current system, even with your worst case scenario. In fact even in a two party election someone just needs 23% of the popular vote to win the EC. So really, you are once again showing a good argument against the EC.

The actual way popular vote would work is the candidates would be forced to get appeal to the largest amount of voters. Which is better than now where they just need to appeal to a subset of swing state voters.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
chaparral wrote:
slowguy wrote:
Quote:
You really don't understand our elections if you think the reason that candidates go to the middle out the primaries. They go to the middle to appeal to the most voters. You know what system would result in candidates wanting to appeal the most voters, the popular vote.


You're simply wrong. If a candidate could win just with the popular vote, they would concentrate only on their narrow base, and hit a few key issues to build up the biggest block they could. They would focus on high population density areas to the exclusion of smaller less densely populated States. We would also become inundated with third, fourth, fifth party candidates keyed into small issue bases, and further diluting the vote. eventually we'd have candidates who could campaign solely in big cities (for example), and win an election with 20% of the vote while everyone else split the rest.


Someone could now win the EC with 20% of the vote. So no different that the current system, even with your worst case scenario. In fact even in a two party election someone just needs 23% of the popular vote to win the EC. So really, you are once again showing a good argument against the EC.
quote]

Maybe someone "could" theoretically win with 20% now (pretty tough to get 270 EC votes with only 20% of popular vote, but hey, maybe it's possible), but they don't, because the EC system helps us keep 13 extra candidates from seriously getting any traction, because they know they can't get anywhere near where they need to win. So we always end up with a small number of candidates, allowing 2 major candidates to mostly split the vote.


Quote:
The actual way popular vote would work is the candidates would be forced to get appeal to the largest amount of voters. Which is better than now where they just need to appeal to a subset of swing state voters.

This simply isn't true, and we know it's not, because we see how it works in other countries. Purely going by popular vote results in a much larger swatch of parties/candidates, and they split the vote up into much smaller segments with narrower focus.

Appealing to the largest number of voters you can get, when you're splitting amongst 10 candidates, isn't getting you closer to mass agreement on a winner.

Candidates under the current system DO NOT just have to appeal to swing State voters. Stop repeating this nonsense. The swing States are just the undecided States, where candidates have to try to convince marginal voters. A liberal candidate already appeals to voters in mostly blue States, and likewise for a conservative candidate in a red State. It's not that they don't have to appeal to those voters; it's that they already DO appeal to those voters, and don't have to take extraordinary measures to do so.

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
chaparral wrote:
slowguy wrote:
Quote:
You really don't understand our elections if you think the reason that candidates go to the middle out the primaries. They go to the middle to appeal to the most voters. You know what system would result in candidates wanting to appeal the most voters, the popular vote.


You're simply wrong. If a candidate could win just with the popular vote, they would concentrate only on their narrow base, and hit a few key issues to build up the biggest block they could. They would focus on high population density areas to the exclusion of smaller less densely populated States. We would also become inundated with third, fourth, fifth party candidates keyed into small issue bases, and further diluting the vote. eventually we'd have candidates who could campaign solely in big cities (for example), and win an election with 20% of the vote while everyone else split the rest.


Someone could now win the EC with 20% of the vote. So no different that the current system, even with your worst case scenario. In fact even in a two party election someone just needs 23% of the popular vote to win the EC. So really, you are once again showing a good argument against the EC.

The actual way popular vote would work is the candidates would be forced to get appeal to the largest amount of voters. Which is better than now where they just need to appeal to a subset of swing state voters.

More than that, someone could win the election with no votes. There is nothing in the constitution that requires a popular vote. It's up to each state's legislature to determine how electors are determined.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
slowguy wrote:
chaparral wrote:
slowguy wrote:
Quote:
You really don't understand our elections if you think the reason that candidates go to the middle out the primaries. They go to the middle to appeal to the most voters. You know what system would result in candidates wanting to appeal the most voters, the popular vote.


You're simply wrong. If a candidate could win just with the popular vote, they would concentrate only on their narrow base, and hit a few key issues to build up the biggest block they could. They would focus on high population density areas to the exclusion of smaller less densely populated States. We would also become inundated with third, fourth, fifth party candidates keyed into small issue bases, and further diluting the vote. eventually we'd have candidates who could campaign solely in big cities (for example), and win an election with 20% of the vote while everyone else split the rest.


Someone could now win the EC with 20% of the vote. So no different that the current system, even with your worst case scenario. In fact even in a two party election someone just needs 23% of the popular vote to win the EC. So really, you are once again showing a good argument against the EC.
quote]

Maybe someone "could" theoretically win with 20% now (pretty tough to get 270 EC votes with only 20% of popular vote, but hey, maybe it's possible), but they don't, because the EC system helps us keep 13 extra candidates from seriously getting any traction, because they know they can't get anywhere near where they need to win. So we always end up with a small number of candidates, allowing 2 major candidates to mostly split the vote.


Quote:
The actual way popular vote would work is the candidates would be forced to get appeal to the largest amount of voters. Which is better than now where they just need to appeal to a subset of swing state voters.


This simply isn't true, and we know it's not, because we see how it works in other countries. Purely going by popular vote results in a much larger swatch of parties/candidates, and they split the vote up into much smaller segments with narrower focus.

Appealing to the largest number of voters you can get, when you're splitting amongst 10 candidates, isn't getting you closer to mass agreement on a winner.

Candidates under the current system DO NOT just have to appeal to swing State voters. Stop repeating this nonsense. The swing States are just the undecided States, where candidates have to try to convince marginal voters. A liberal candidate already appeals to voters in mostly blue States, and likewise for a conservative candidate in a red State. It's not that they don't have to appeal to those voters; it's that they already DO appeal to those voters, and don't have to take extraordinary measures to do so.

Yes, someone winning the EC with 23% of the popular vote is unlikely, but it is not anymore likely than someone winning a popular vote election with 20% of the vote AND wouldn't happen with a run off as I previously proposed.

So you agree a popular vote with a run off would be better than the EC? It would prevent someone winning with 23% of the vote, which you admit would be a bad thing.

Can you finally answer my question, how did trump moderate? Seriously, how are you saying that the EC causes candidates to moderate or appeal to the most voters, when trump won?
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I agree with you on one thing, Trump did not moderate at all. He doesn't need to and wont' be doing it in 2020 either.

Even after he gets impeached he will be tweeting like a madman and insulting anyone he deems necessary.

Problem for the left is he will win re-election. USA today poll has him beating all the current Dem Challengers. It will be hard for many to comprehend that even knowing what Trump is and what he does, he is still a preferred President to the Dem nominees for around 50% of the country and with the help of the EC, a winning candidate.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I'm on the fence about the EC because I live in a state that has never in my voting history gone republican. My vote never counts. I lean towards keeping it because the arguments and reasons for it make sense to me.

One question, if Hillary had won in 2016 would everyone still be calling for change? It just feels like loser talk to me.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [svennn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
svennn wrote:
I'm on the fence about the EC because I live in a state that has never in my voting history gone republican. My vote never counts. I lean towards keeping it because the arguments and reasons for it make sense to me.

One question, if Hillary had won in 2016 would everyone still be calling for change? It just feels like loser talk to me.

Agree that it is loser talk. No way this discussion happens if Hillary won. Republicans have out-maneuvered the Dems regarding the EC because they understand it is their only hope going forward. They will never win another general election without the EC. They are literally fighting for their relevance as a party.

Another cycle or two and my state will move from red to blue. As I've said many times, this will be my first general where I vote for a Dem. Trump's unbecoming behavior being the sole reason. I don't see the state swinging for 2020, but 2016 also had record low % of R votes, down over 7% from 2004.

What will be most interesting to watch is how quickly R's move to disown Trump if he loses. I think that will be a good thing for the country, but it will not come without consequences.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [ACE] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
ACE wrote:
I agree with you on one thing, Trump did not moderate at all. He doesn't need to and wont' be doing it in 2020 either.

Even after he gets impeached he will be tweeting like a madman and insulting anyone he deems necessary.

Problem for the left is he will win re-election. USA today poll has him beating all the current Dem Challengers. It will be hard for many to comprehend that even knowing what Trump is and what he does, he is still a preferred President to the Dem nominees for around 50% of the country and with the help of the EC, a winning candidate.

fear is a powerful drug
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [ACE] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
ACE wrote:
Problem for the left is he will win re-election. USA today poll has him beating all the current Dem Challengers.

That poll was hilariously flawed. It was would you prefer trump, Biden or another candidate. Of course that will hurt Biden in the poll.

Polls that ask straight up between trump and one the challengers show very different results. Still, trump is a 50/50 shot a reelection now. Him winning the popular vote is much much less likely. Most likely he loses it by 3 million again. His only real path to reelection is hoping the EC falls his way again.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [svennn] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
svennn wrote:
I'm on the fence about the EC because I live in a state that has never in my voting history gone republican. My vote never counts. I lean towards keeping it because the arguments and reasons for it make sense to me.

One question, if Hillary had won in 2016 would everyone still be calling for change? It just feels like loser talk to me.

I suspect you are right. Republicans will suddenly sour on the EC very quickly if Texas turns blue. You only need to look at 2000, when it looked like Gore may win the EC, but not the popular vote, Republicans already had the talking point that his election would have no legitimacy. In 2000 Repulican house member Ray LaHood said on Meet the Press that it "would be an outrage" if Gore won the EC but not the popular vote. And “knowing him as we do, [Gore] may have no problem taking the presidential oath after losing the popular vote to George W. Bush.” Ray LaHood was then silent on the issue when Bush won the EC, but not the popular vote. The Bush campaign was preparing a major campaign to have the EC electorals change their votes to Bush.

Still, there are people, like myself that believe the EC should be removed no matter who wins. Everyone's vote should count equally is just a good system. Letting some people's vote count more than others is bad. It is that simple.
Quote Reply
Re: Screw the impeachment. Trump should be removed for being non compos mentis. [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Quote:
Yes, someone winning the EC with 23% of the popular vote is unlikely, but it is not anymore likely than someone winning a popular vote election with 20% of the vote AND wouldn't happen with a run off as I previously proposed.

I disagree. I think it's much more likely that we get multiple candidates in an election that doesn't force an EC calculation, and that those multiple candidates would split the vote significantly, and that we would end up with a "winner" who carried much less of the popular vote. I don't think this problem is solved at all by a run-off, which just forces the electorate to choose between two candidates most of the country didn't support in the first place.

Quote:
So you agree a popular vote with a run off would be better than the EC?

No, I don't agree, as I've said a couple of times now.

Quote:
Can you finally answer my question, how did trump moderate? Seriously, how are you saying that the EC causes candidates to moderate or appeal to the most voters, when trump won?

Because Pres Trump did not run on a far right platform. He may be a buffoon. He may say stupid stuff. And yes, he had a couple of outlandish sounding proposals, as do pretty much all candidates. But his platform was center right, rather than way out on the right wing. He won, and you need to get this in your head, because Sec Clinton was a shitty opposition candidate.

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
Quote Reply

Prev Next