monty wrote:Even MIchael Phelps didn't set a single PB for the last 7 years of his swimming career. 7 years without a PB. Improvement isn't as simple as "I was at X last year, so this year I should be at X plus Y" // I agree with your overall assumptions, but for this one example, kind of not really fair as he and everyone else had the super suit era to contend with. Those times set were always going to be tough to beat, in fact many are still there. It is taking folks like Dressel and Ledecky to overcome some of them, figure the remainder will go in Tokyo. Except for that 200 free, that was a hell of a time, it might stand for awhile longer..1;42 flat, imagine if we had someone even knocking on that door, maybe Caleb if he leads off the relay??
Sure, except a number of Phelps' fastest swims were with leggings, not the full suit. A modern jammer was probably similar in performance to the leggings, and Speedo's supersuit wasn't nearly as fast as the Arena full poly supersuit. I believe that almost all of the "non-Phelps" records still standing from the '09 era were set with the Arena suits. Certainly Beidermann and Cielo were using it. I'd peg that difference as "marginal". Case in point, it didn't take that long for Lochte to break the 200IM record under the post '09 rules, which makes me think that Phelps' suit wasn't quite as huge of an advantage.
No-one is touching the 200 and 400 free because of those suits, but the 400IM was pretty much all Michael.
There are a number of other factors that played into MP not setting any PB's after '09, most famously his completely understandable lack of motivation and slacking off in the leadup to 2012. He needed a break.
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Unattainable goals for 2019/2020 season. https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...ost=6944848#p6944848