"The Germans are all peaking to hammer each other into the ground at Roth, they have their periodization wrong. You can't peak mid summer and do a fast Ironman and regroup 12 weeks later to go fast at Kona".
I believe Sebastien Kienle was the first one to break out of that, but he did not have to run a low 2:4x to win Kona. It was more like 2:50 in 2014 off the strength of his bike. Since then Jan Frodeno has won 3 more times off blazingly fast mid summer races, but he's never run as fast in Kona. This year he did a personal best 2:42 run in Kona. He did not need to run that fast either. He could have jogged in a 2;49 and still won given his buffer at T2. Jan kept the powder dry on the bike until the way back at scenic point and then put the hammer down on his domestiques Brownlee and O'Donnel (nothing like having a 2 time olympic gold medalist as a domestique haha).
I think it is the first time that someone ran 2:42 (the winning magic run split that guys like Mark Allen, Crowie and Macca) after doing that run split in the summer. Mark, Crowie, Macca, Pete Jacobs (the guys who ran that split) never ran that split mid summer and repeated it in Kona
In 2016 Lionel Sanders went 7:44 at Ironman Arizona after he walked a lot in Kona 7 weeks before. He hardly pounded his legs and was ready for Arizona. Then during the summer of 2017 he did zero Ironman racing. Almost like the Mark and Dave routine (sometimes they would go jog Ironman Japan). He had his best race in Kona and finished second. Every time he does Ironman Tremblant in the third week of August he sucks in Kona. There is not much room to manouevre at the pro level.
The previous wisdom was a fast race in July = Bad Race in Kona. First Sebi and now Jan have disproved that. But Tremblant seems too close.
Jan is a bit of a superman in terms of what he is pulling off. Elite marathoners don't do two fast races so close to one anothe. Maybe one in the spring and one in the fall....but triathlon running at 2:4x is not the same as marathon running at 2:0x, the latter being almost a minute faster per kilometer, so its probably possible as Jan is proving to do two fast Ironman marathons 12 weeks apart..
I think Lionel's biggest problem is not his coach, its just his stupid schedule and desire to race Ironman Mont Tremblant. Him and Cody should stop doing that race (as much as I love our local Mdot 140.6....its just too close to do well in Kona).
With some further research, Macca was the first to win mid summer and Kona. Roth run split was 2:45, Kona 2:42 in 2007. When Jan did the Roth plus Kona double in 2016 marathon splits were 2:39 in roth and 2:45. This year he did 2:43 in the crazy heat of Frankfurt and then went faster with a 2:42 in Kona. Kind of like Macca 2007 just faster in his summer race. In any case, only a few guys have pulled off the fast mid summer race and the Kona win. When Peter Reid went really fast at Ironman Austria in the summer he got beaten by Tim DeBoom in Kona 1999. Marino Vanhounacher and Andreas Ralaert are also two others who were always world record fast mid summer and the big prize escaped in Kona.
I'm not saying that's right or wrong, and to some extend I would agree that it is better to peak just for kona.
At the same time you are biased by forgetting many other examples
Bart aeronaus did hamburg last year
Cam wurf did an Im 3 weeks before kona
Russel 2 weeks before kona an had best race ever.
Ferris Al sultan once qualified for kona in kanada and was third
I seem to remember luck van liede did super fast run in Roth and won kona.
Jan and likely Javier killed himself at 70.3 world's last year
Itdepedns more on the athlete how they work.
But I totally agree a super fast run before kona makes it harder at kona. But again it depends on other factors too
And while a 4 120 30 is easier than a full last year's 70.3 world super fast runs where harder than mark Allen run at his 10 nice wins. So not just one answer here. And personally 2018 70.3 race was the best long distance race ever in my mind and it killed all top 5 guys for a good while more thanfrankfurt usually does ( even though Jan was in a real bad way at frankfurt finish line this year.
Anne haug was on female world record pace till k 25 or so this year in the last 2019 kona qualyfying race so this year we could say to win kona you have to have a very fast time in an ironman or is it coincidence that both kona winner have the same coach?
I am certainly being a bit biased bringing up certain times to point out almost no one runs really really fast mid summer (it seems 2:42/2:43 is a bit of a magic number) and do it again in Kona. I think the examples of Cam Wurf, Matt Russell etc are interesting but they never run that fast. The physics associated with running that fast are inesacapable (its just number of strides at that velocity pounding the body at pro male weight while already depleted from 5.5 hrs of swim+bike).
I would have loved to see what Cody Beals could have run after his 2:42 in Tremblant.
Also to your point, Thomas Hellriegel won Ironman Canada in 8:09 in the last week of August in 1996 and backed it up with an 8:06 in Kona 6 weeks later with a 2:46 run. I think his run was sub 2:50 in Penticton, but I don't have the results handy. But Thomas never run 2:42/2:43.....running 240 seconds faster is 5-6 seconds faster per kilometer. This is a different world of running speed.
I was actually worried that Frankfurt would take a lot out of Jan and Lange would pull off another miracle run in Kona after "relatively" dogging it at both Frankfurt and Nice. I'm glad we never needed to find that out.
At the end it's irrelevant what you run it matters to go from A to B as fast as possible. And at the end this year's swim and bike was just as important as the run.
And to be fair cody is a great athlete but not top 5 Kona yet so much better off winning tremblant.