Frodeno said it was flatish from 20-30km out I believe.

When did he change it?

at Hawi I believe

How far into the bike course is Hawi? How long was he literally riding a flat.

Is Jonny even racing super league this weekend? I think he's out of the series because of his low placing in Jersey

It’s just over half way

Gentle just announced she's racing her first 70.3 at Xiamen.

I’m beginning to think WTC may have the 70.3 worlds after Kona in every Olympic cycle as it allows ITU stars to have their taste. I wonder if that was part of their consideration for NZ or if this is pure coincidence?

I’m excited for her potential move up. Not sure how she does in hot conditions but she certainly has the tools to be a dominant LC racer

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

It’ll be interesting to see how well she’s does

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Matt

Jonny has said he'll be moving up after Tokyo I believe, I always thought he'd do better than Ali at long as he just seems to race a bit more patient but Jonny seems to get a lot of bad luck with mechanicals and also doesn't seem to be as tactically astute as Ali so time will tell also haven't seen him close to his best since Cozumel (that heat)

Not sure who else I could see moving up after Tokyo who I'd be excited about, Schoeman and Varga will add some interesting dynamics to the swim (Schoeman bikes and runs well enough/races well on the big occasion) to maybe become a contender one day. Don't know if your Mola's, Luis or Alarza plan on moving up after but all three of them would potentially contend especially Luis who is good all round as the Brownlee's.

The women I'd be more excited about, Duffy and Zafferes could take things to whole new levels, Learmoth, Stimpson and Holland if transition over well could all contend. I'd love to see Spirig have at least one crack at Kona, I think she had the tools to have been incredible at LC, think she's too old now will probably retire from top level after Tokyo.

Ah, Alex Yee, you are joking right, at tnhis stage he still isn't strong enough on the bike for ITU to use his run as well as he could, long course is many, many years away for someone like him, he is still so young.

Most of the younger ITU athletes will stay with short distance racing. 2024 Olympics are in Paris and that will be a big draw. You just can't migrate to long distance and back and be at the top of your game. Some will try 70.3/middle (maybe the Norwegians). As for the British athletes, some of the decisions made will be based on funding. If they move away from Olympic distance I believe they could find themselves off funding?? It might dissuade some of the women.

Most countries if they move away from ITU they would move away from federation funding, not just UK. There may be some athletes pushed down in their funding levels after Tokyo. Many countries work on the system of level now and potential to medal at the next olympics, anyone in the upper ages would not be looked at as favourably as a younger athlete at a similar level.

Alex Yee still hasn't got to grips with Oly distance yet, he's only had like two or three races at the distance at WTC level or something? I wouldn't go writing him off yet and I don't think we'll see him in IM for another ten years at least given he's only 21!

Every 4 years since 2000, people say the ITU guys will move up and transform Ironman.

Let's see the winners since then and I may have missed a few:

• Peter Reid, Tim DeBoom, Stadler, Faris, Macca, Crowie, Jacobs, Kienle, Lange, Frodo
• Natascha, Michellie Jones, Bowden, Wellington, Carfrae, Cave, Ryf, Haug

Almost no one who was winning a lot of ITU world cups has done well at Ironman. Frodo and Ryf didn't win weekly world cups but they were near the front. They were probably too big to win most world cups, but that translated well to Ironman for the bike. Haug seems to be the exception who is small and can bike. She's a stronger version of Mirinda Carfrae on the bike. Mirinda never did anything at ITU but won Kona 3x.

I'd look at the really really strong ITU bikers who are also larger athletes and have the potential for good watts to CdA and have enough mass to store a decent amount of glycogen. Lange seems to be an exception to this at 62 kilos but as soon as the bike courses get harder and there is no draft train, he's off the back.

I think the Norwegians are the best ones from your list.

If we look at the Kona men's podium this year, O'Donnel and Kienle came up from age grouper/club ranks, not ITU. It's 19 years after the first Olympic games and if ITU guys are the best athletes for Ironman, then former age grouper types should have no chance at Kona, but its a different body type to win at Ironman even though both sports have the same disciplines.

I'd agree with most of your points if 8 out of the last 10 Kona's hadn't been won by former ITU athletes!