I heard somewhere that Gomez was potentially doing Tokyo and Kona (probably why he will end up doing average at both)

The Tokyo-70.3 WC Taupo double looks very workable and I bet a lot of ITU guys may try and do an ‘Iden’......

bottom line, i think we can all agree that brownlee is really good at sports.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Aside from drafting and pacing, what is the real benefit to riding with someone? Does having someone to pace off of actually really offer a benefit? I don’t understand why riding in packs is so important other than ensuring you stay separate or close to certain athletes. Serious question, not trying to argue.

+ 1, Ali is the ultimate competitor, beginning with him winning ‘fell” races as a young boy, beating adult fields!
He could certainly blow up (so could anyone) but counting him out is a huge mistake, as all of the pros know, and anyone saying he is not a contender is either ignorant or a hater.
My pick to win is Frodeno, but I would not be surprised to see Brownlee, Lange, Kienle, Sanders, Beals, Currie, Wurf or Aernouts win (Lange, Currie, Aernouts and Wurf will need specific weather conditions- the others I believe will contend in all conditions).

I think you've just defined the main benefits. Less effort, as you have some draft at 12m. Easier on the mind as you have someone pacing for you.

They are pretty big imho.

Look at the Tour riders on steep hills - no draft but 'work' for each other pacing. It makes the mental effort a lot easier.

So how do you think Brownlee's race will pan out and where do you think he will finish. He's the strongest swimmer in the field, one of the strongest bikers and one of the strongest runners. He is most likely going to come into T2 leading with 2 others or 2 mins behind the leader, possibly Wurf. I'm assuming you are about to say he will blow up on the run and end up walking as he's no good in the heat..... For him to finish outside the top 10 (like Gomez) he would have to end up running something like a 3.10 marathon...

Something has to go wrong for Brownlee not to finish in the top 5 or 6. And if he paces it well, then he should podium.

Stefan Schumacher to lead into T2.

What happened to Gomez to not get top 10?

Who usually wins between Gomez and Browlie the past 6 months?

I actually don’t know and guessing you do

I think I heard somewhere that it may somehow happen sometime.

Gomez's Ironman training wasn't on point, as Frodo pointed out in his BWB interview. He was always going to finish well outside the top 5. He didn't bike well in South Africa, cruised the bike leg averaging 260w, did no work at the front (as Frodo and Brownlee pointed out) and then was outrun. Gomez was never going to race well in Kona. Gomez's Kona performance in 2018 has no bearing on how Brownlee will go. It's pretty much irrelevant.

Very well said. Gomez didn’t have a good bike, and was killing himself in training. The story for AB in this race will
Be different

i think both ali and javi are pretty good at sports.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Its quite clear all the other Pro's have one eye on Ali - but he's still a bit of an unknown quantity over the distance. They know he's going to go aggressive from the off, but when does he start to back off? Or is he even going to back off?

What I find amusing is that he comes across as the stereotypical mild-mannered, stiff upper lip Brit - but he's got that "Beast Mode On" switch in his head when a starting gun goes off.

Van Riel 's already hinted he's going to do the Tokyo - Taupo 70.3 WC double on his Instagram stories just recently

The 12m draft typically saves 15-30 watts for the following rider, depending on the rider in front and behind and speed. That is hug for any athlete. It allows an athlete to stay in group they otherwise would lose 10+ minutes over the course of an ironman bike leg and/or allows them to run much much faster than the otherwise could if they were riding without a draft or say at a 20m gap where the draft is effectively non-existent--unless behind a moto. Also, the bigger the draft group the faster that group can go and the energy savings from the draft actually increases; this occurs even with the 12m no drafting zone. To be specific, Ironman's 12m no drafting zone is really 10m, Iroman measures the 12m from the front wheel of the lead bike to the front wheel of the following bike, so given that the bike length is typically ~2m, the no drafting gap for Ironman is really 10m.

In Kona, the draft savings is typically more like 15-20 watts on average, b/c of the cross winds, but last year with the winds almost non-existent, the lead pros rode crazy fast, and there were quite a few riders that rode way faster than a normal Kona conditions year. Check out this article by a Aerodynamicsists and wheelmaker Swisside; they sponsor a bunch of pros...including two well known Germans, Patrick Lange and Andi Dreitz

https://www.swissside.com/...e-deal-with-drafting

The fact that he’s unknown is actually the major issue. You can probably make one hell of a spreadsheet with all the others races times and have a decent idea barring some mess or surprise where they are going to come out of the swim and where they’ll come off the bike, and how fast they can run.

With Alistar you know he’s gonna be one of the top ones out of the swim and he could be one of the top ones coming off the bike. So what do you do. If your run with him you could have a great chance of blowing up but if you let him go up the road you may never see him again.

It’s actually the same damn strategy him and his brother used when they started racing they said we’re gonna run at some stupid pace for the first 1-2k if you don’t stay with us you can’t catch us, if you stay with us you’ll blowup but you might get 3rd.

There will be somepoint tomorrow if he’s in the mix where he’ll go into Brownlee death mode if he thinks he can win. At that point you better hope you have more in the take or he dramatically blows up, because like some of the pros have said he doesn’t really do second place well.

I honestly think the bike is the biggest question for him. It would be really easy for him to over do it and not have a good run. He always had enough in the tank in ITU to have a good run after, but the distance makes that significantly more challenging.

Thanks for the response, that was exactly what I was looking for and it’s nice to see actual numbers on the drafting effect. People on here seem to want to point out that riding in a group is helpful but then hide from saying anything about drafting. Anyway thanks.