Agree. Had just had the same thought thinking about how the bike could unfold. Starkey should be a few mins closer to the lead out of the water than wurf, sanders and sebastian. In some ways that may end up helping frodo and brownlee keep the gap if stark bridges up and they end up having more fire power to share the work a bit. I still think Wurf, Sanders and Sebastian bridge the gap well before bike is over if the conditions are even somewhat unfarvorable. If like last year than I'd say prob not. We need some wind to make the race more interesting.

Ah Ok.

Ali, Frodeno and Amberger are going to definitely work to keep their separation up front. Sanders was in the 3rd pack today which was pulled by 3 age groupers. Last year he was slower in the actual race as compared to the practice, and I would expect the same this year. I expect Wurf to stick to Kienle on the swim and be about 5-6 minutes back, with Lionel another minute or 2. Starky should be within 2 minutes of the lead, so maybe he can bridge and join the party up front. Sooner or later Amberger will get dropped. Wurf could bridge after Hawi, but I think things for Kienle and Sanders are likely to go as they have in other races with AB, which is off the bike with a similar gap, or more, as the swim. Nice is the latest data point for Kienle.
Even IF AB blows, he will be a huge impact on the race. Not good news for Lange.

A) Ali
B) Starky
C) Amberger

*** Are all non factors***

Let us remember Frodeno won Kona on 270 watts. Let them go kamikaze and blow themselves up.

I know that is true but does anyone have the file? The pros usually ride gong-show first hour. Curious what Frodo power was for first hour. It isn't odd to see 320-330 first hour and then some guys are 200-220 by the end as they are fried. It is a big difference in the pro field as it isn't anything close to steady state.

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I'll add the following. I remember talking to Ben Kanute after Kitzbuhl or whatever the uphill TT was and the power numbers were absurd. Kanute has a power pack himself, and Brownlee for as skinny as he seems has a serious power pack as well. I think sometimes people forget just how fit many triathletes are. If there is anything to dispute it would be Brownlee's weight. He is probably heavier than people realize. Dude is strong like an ox. I could see 69kg but I would really doubt it. I am still shocked when Rappstar was 70kg.

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Steve - Very nice swim, 49:25 is cooking. JOOC, what kind of time for the 1650 do you think you could do right now??? Maybe 16:30-ish??? Just curious. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Thank you. I wasn’t expecting it to be that fast. I just wanted to practice a fast take out and work on drafting/sighting for the real race. I took over the lead of the second pack just after we made the first turn. We caught Boecherer on the way back in as he likely shut it down 3/4 or of the way through and we swam side by side for a good bit. I screwed up my sighting coming back towards the pier and drifted away from Andi and I fell back in the group a few spots. Was a fun race and it was great not to have to bike or run afterward.

No way I could swim a 16:30 right now. I just don’t have the speed for it anymore. It would more likely be 17:30 to be honest. But who knows.... put me next to a fast swimmer and I might be faster. I swim a whole lot faster when I have people to swim with.

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Very interesting. I've always been curious about what kind of times top tri swimmers could do in a stand-alone race in the pool. The drafting in tri swimming makes this much harder to determine. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Very interesting. I've always been curious about what kind of times top tri swimmers could do in a stand-alone race in the pool. The drafting in tri swimming makes this much harder to determine. :)


I think Steve is pretty spot on about his pool capabilities, 17;30 seems about right for that 49+ group. Your 16;30 time would be closer to the 5 leaders that went 46, and that is a right now time. Certainly some or all of them could go pretty fast with a swim only focus. Its also possible someone in that group could go 16 flat, and someone only 17 or so. That is the power of OW ability.


I figure Wolfgang and Rob Mackel from the old days would have been in that 46 group, and I swam with them on a tt Saturday morning where they both went about 16;40 for 1500SCM. Rob hungover, and it was a pop swim, so no one knew it was coming...