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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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He’s been looking good in training since I’ve seen him in the Woodlands the last couple weeks. I swam next to him and Patrik Nilsson the other day. They both looked solid.

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Last edited by: SnappingT: Sep 25, 19 16:49
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [SnappingT] [ In reply to ]
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Are you talking about Frondeno or Lange? I would expect Frodo to be really drilling the swim, he has that ability and speed. Lange is a top swimmer who has the hang onto the lead group ability, but not the speed to hold any breakaway. Lead group in the swim is fine for him anyway, that puts him with 20 other guys who all ride similar. Have a feeling that breakaway swim group(if it materializes) is going to drill the bike from the get go. No passengers, and make all the rest really work to bridge up, in small numbers of course..
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Lange has been here for the last two weeks. There’s half a dozen pros racing Kona who are in the Woodlands right now.

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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [SnappingT] [ In reply to ]
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Good to know, thanks. I got my money on him now, so have to keep track of my horses..(-;
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
The only thing that bothered me was that he also kept pushing the Alistair doesn’t do well in the heat-agenda which there is no basis for.

I know. I don't where this comes from??
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [Culley22] [ In reply to ]
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Culley22 wrote:
aerobean wrote:
I've said it a million times, we've yet to see Jan have to run his fastest in Kona. If there is a moment in the run where it's Patrick and Jan together, we'll see that his 2:44 in 2016 was not his fastest.

Yup. I actually think Lange isn't even top 5 this year (Monty, want in on this?). He won't be close enough on the bike for his run to get him high enough. Just too much power on the bike this year.

Totally agree. People are looking at 2019 Kona as it's a carbon copy of 2018. Probably very different conditions and a much higher calibre field which will change the way a lot of the pros approach the race. They will have to change their tactics. He will be way down on the bike and to a lesser extent the swim. How cognisant will he be of the gap between the leaders and the chase pack, assuming he's in the first chase pack and how will that affect how he rides. He wouldn't have been concerned last year knowing he had a 3.06 runner leading the race, so just cracked on with his coffee ride and enjoyed the scenery. Will the guys he's riding with want to burn matches to catch the leaders or are they going to save themselves for the run and be happy with 7th, 8th? Even if Lange matched Brownlee, Frodo and Kienle's bike split, he will be 3 mins down from the swim. But he's not going to get close to their bike split. You could argue Nice 70.3 is a bad example, but 14mins down on Brownlee's bike split for a 70.3??
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Are you talking about Frondeno or Lange? I would expect Frodo to be really drilling the swim, he has that ability and speed. Lange is a top swimmer who has the hang onto the lead group ability, but not the speed to hold any breakaway. Lead group in the swim is fine for him anyway, that puts him with 20 other guys who all ride similar. Have a feeling that breakaway swim group(if it materializes) is going to drill the bike from the get go. No passengers, and make all the rest really work to bridge up, in small numbers of course..

Who do you think the top 3 will be, coming in to T2 and how far back do you think Lange will be?
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
Culley22 wrote:
aerobean wrote:
I've said it a million times, we've yet to see Jan have to run his fastest in Kona. If there is a moment in the run where it's Patrick and Jan together, we'll see that his 2:44 in 2016 was not his fastest.

Yup. I actually think Lange isn't even top 5 this year (Monty, want in on this?). He won't be close enough on the bike for his run to get him high enough. Just too much power on the bike this year.


Totally agree. People are looking at 2019 Kona as it's a carbon copy of 2018. Probably very different conditions and a much higher calibre field which will change the way a lot of the pros approach the race. They will have to change their tactics. He will be way down on the bike and to a lesser extent the swim. How cognisant will he be of the gap between the leaders and the chase pack, assuming he's in the first chase pack and how will that affect how he rides. He wouldn't have been concerned last year knowing he had a 3.06 runner leading the race, so just cracked on with his coffee ride and enjoyed the scenery. Will the guys he's riding with want to burn matches to catch the leaders or are they going to save themselves for the run and be happy with 7th, 8th? Even if Lange matched Brownlee, Frodo and Kienle's bike split, he will be 3 mins down from the swim. But he's not going to get close to their bike split. You could argue Nice 70.3 is a bad example, but 14mins down on Brownlee's bike split for a 70.3??
Shhhhhhh!!!!!! Monty hasn't said "shake" yet.
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [Culley22] [ In reply to ]
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Oh, its on buddy, its on...Shake!!!
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Lange is a top swimmer who has the hang onto the lead group ability, but not the speed to hold any breakaway. Lead group in the swim is fine for him anyway, that puts him with 20 other guys who all ride similar.

He might have the ability, but only in 2017 he really was with the top group, when Amberger was swimming at the front alone.

In 2016 Lange was in the first chase pack about a minute down from the front pack.
In 2017 Josh Amberger was alone at the front, Lange in the pack a minute and half behind.
In 2018 he was in the first chase pack, 3 minutes down from the lead pack.

Lange seems, more than any of the other top contenders, to calculate his race and not burn any matches and stay away from the front, until he gets to the run.
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [aerobean] [ In reply to ]
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Here’s what I think:

The report is worth every penny of the $15 I gave him for it. I think it is a fantastic read.
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [SnappingT] [ In reply to ]
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SnappingT wrote:
He’s been looking good in training since I’ve seen him in the Woodlands the last couple weeks. I swam next to him and Patrik Nilsson the other day. They both looked solid.

I’ll let you in on a secret. All those Pros in Kona look solid to us, because even on a bad day they still will perform way better than we could ever dream of. You won’t see how good his shape is until it is tested in competition. Without data to compare it with you cannot see a thing watching those guys.
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [Sebi76] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [Sebi76] [ In reply to ]
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I’ll let you in on a secret. All those Pros in Kona look solid to us, because even on a bad day they still will perform way better than we could ever dream of. You won’t see how good his shape is until it is tested in competition. Without data to compare it with you cannot see a thing watching those guys. //

I'm also going to disagree with you. You do know the guy you responded to is a top level pro triathlon swimming coach, right? I think he knows when someone is drilling it in the pool, and he is aware of what it takes to make the front group in the swim, as well as the the front break, and the trailing groups. If he says that Lange is drilling it in the pool, I would take him at his word, and also that he knows what drilling it actually means. You are correct that it all becomes clear on Raceday, but lots can happen there. The best we can know now is what kind of sets is he doing in the pool? Did he do 20x100's on the 1;10 holding 1;02's?? There are just some swims and workouts, that if done, say someone is well prepared for an upcoming race. Now whether or not they execute that fitness, well that is why they have the race...
Last edited by: monty: Sep 30, 19 14:59
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Shame on me. I did not know that.

While that makes my point on him not being able to tell ABs swim shape by the look at it invalid, I still stand by my point concerning alistaire. He is a great swimmer compared to most of the Ironman distance athletes anyways as swimming plays a vital role in ITU racing. That is to be expected. It does not say anything about how he will perform in Kona. What AB hasn’t shown too often was patience. That is a virtue he will need so he won’t blow up in Kona. You cannot see that in his swimming sessions and you cannot even tell it when you watch him in a bike or brick session. Impossible imo.
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [Sebi76] [ In reply to ]
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I still stand by my point concerning alistaire.//

We are talking about Lange, Allistar was in Tuscon, not the Woodlands...


I agree, Allistar is automatic lead break in the swim, not much drama there. But Lange, he is right at that point where he could be front pack, or just off of it. And it is kind of important for him to have a great swim, puts him in a different bike group, and we know he isn't one to move from group to group on the bike going forward. So if he is in really great swimming shape, that means something pre race in determining if he is race ready or not..
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [aerobean] [ In reply to ]
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Why is that even relevant, much like bicycle blue book? I am failing to see his credibility and usually do not read irrelevant material. Every athlete is unique, every course is unique, every course is unique on any given day based on conditions and anybody can win anywhere on any given day. The rest of it is empty talk. Just sit and wait until the race day and you will find out everything you need to know. Guess work writing, using electronic media as a platform to play relevance?
Or should I read his skewed course comparisons? Or should I let the course data speak for itself, like water temps, course measurements from files, elevation gains, historical temps/winds/humidity, quantify that, show me methodology that accounts for all variables......?
Why are his comparisons accurate? or are they?
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Re: Thorsten's Kona report is out, what do you think? [aerobean] [ In reply to ]
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1 - Aernouts
2 - Frodeno
3 - Brownlee
4 - Kienle
5 - Wurf

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