I'm going on the record and say there's not 1 45yr old plus out there that can beat Dan....juiced or not. //

You would lose a lot of money on that bet. Here are just a couple(unjuiced), Cameron Brown and Craig Alexander. I could probably come up with 5 or 6 more if I dug around, but 45+ is not what it used to be thanks to these guys...And forget about the pro designation, when you get to 45+, you are entitled to be compared to your peers the same age...

I'd be willing to bet you'd find some Europeans that are amateurs that would, who just don't race this side of the pond or Kona. Often due to financial limitations or because they just prefer to race Euro side (maybe some Aussies, New Z guys too). Hard to say when not everyone encounters everyone at any given race (Kona is not a good indicator either as some aren't heat acclimated & do better in cold/cooler weather).

It's the phenomena that at quite a few races, particularly smaller races, the older age groups can lay a serious smack down on the non-maximally trained younger ones. Just go to any local smaller triathlon and watch how much more of a beatdown the M40-45 puts down on the M20-25 group fairly frequently. For all the reasons mentioned above.

Good race execution is a huge part of this. I often beat people who are demonstrably faster than me at all of the three individual sports, but put it all into one race, and a guy who can run a 1:18 half marathon suddenly is running 1:38, whereas I can run maybe a 1:25-26 half mary and run a 1:30-31 in a HIM. I'm patient and relaxed in the race. I know exactly how I should feel at all points in the race. I mete out my effort very carefully and I don't do stupid hard 1-5 minute efforts on the bike, I don't brake on the turns (as often as others), I'm comfortable descending in my aerobars and when somebody passes me, I don't stress out about it and I let them go. Basically, I'm not a hot-headed teenager anymore, and I have a lot of experience in race execution.

I have made the experience in all my last five races (includes Challenge half-distance, 70.3 and local Olympic distances) that age group M45 (and sometimes even M50) winners are faster than M40. I looked for reference at Kona, IM Frankfurt and Challenge Roth. Kona and Frankfurt have faster M40 winners, but the difference and up to 10th place does not differ that much. Challenge Roth has a faster M45 podium than M40. And recent German AG sprint Nationals had a M40 winner being slower than M45 and M50.

Is there a pattern? Probably not the avg. athlete - I looked at Coach Cox. However, is a top M45 athlete typically faster than a top M40 athlete? I mean the triathlete that wins his age group (or finishes on podium) at a local Olympic distance and the "local" 70.3?

If so, what makes a difference? More time (kids old enough, so there is time to get back to long bicycle rides?), more money for better equipment and training (coach?), getting wiser and being more focused? Or was my observation just pure accident?

I am wondering because I am M40 and wonder if I should expect to become faster once I will turn 45!? ;-)