jmh wrote:
chaparral wrote:
jmh wrote:
Still not sure what to make of it, if anything.
The most reasonable argument is that it sucks to be in the minority in the house, at least being the minority in the Senate gives you some power. The house is terrible as the minority. Makes sense to retire if there is very little hope of getting the majority after the 2020 election. Combine that with the headache of having to defend trump or at least ignore any question about him, why run for reelection?
I guess that's the question I'm trying to figure out. Much is being made of House Republican retirements in the media and they are trying to make it about DJT.
So in my mind there are two questions to answer:
1. Is it significant compared to historical averages of similar House minorities?
2. Can you make a connection between DJT and the retirements?
If the answer to the first question is no, then does the second question even matter?
The numbers are close to the numbers last cycle for republicans. You also saw lots of Democrat retirements in 2010. It is also a long way out, so hard to know what the final number would be. But the a republicans are acting like every party does when they don’t think they will get power back. Now, the magnitude may be higher, but will have to wait a bit to see if that is true.
trump is a secondary factor here in some ways. He is definitely driving the Republican Party down in terms of taking back the house, so maybe a the primary reason. Having to defend him is a small reason that could sway people on the line to not run, but not a main driver.