velocomp wrote:
Culley22 wrote:
oldandslow wrote:
Any real strategy would have to consider that he may certainly be able to win an election with 45% of the vote (if he can win three states in the Midwest), but he can't govern from that position. He has lost almost all votes outside of his base. This gains him nothing in suburbia, and hardens distaste for him. Trump has almost no ability to get anywhere near 50%, so his best play is to split the Democrat party, which has major fissures already. This does the opposite. Pundits often overanalyze tactics.
I agree. I think the only play is for him to hope the Dems “eat their own”. I have to believe that he has lost some of his supporters, making it much harder to pull of the Hail Mary he did in 2016. I don’t know if it does the opposite. Let them bond now, and they boil underneath, and he’ll (I’m assuming) keep them from spilling over on each other by other tweets. And then let them loose on each other right before the election. I sure hope you’re right. Was an interesting take on it though, especially if true.
I'm not sure the strategy is hoping the Dems eat their own. I think the strategy is:
1. There are equal numbers of Rep and Dems. But if you can make the Dems as a party look bad (socialist, giving away everything, will kill the economy), then the independent block may hold their nose and vote Right. Remember a lot of the independents don't like either party.
But if you're honest, you will note that the right does have a good/strong economy. That is a very powerful reason to maintain the status quo even if you don't like the person leading the charge.
1. No. As bad as HRC was, she still got millions more votes that Trump, even w/ a ton of Obama voters sitting out (which is ultimately what cost the D's). It might seems closer to 50/50 because too many of the Ds are packed into too few states (mostly CA), so having a smaller number of R's spread among more states (basically the entire Midwest & South) gives them a disproportionate amount of stature in Congress relative to their raw population.
2. If you're honest, you will note that the right's good/strong economy is pretty much a consistent extension of the trend line they inherited from the previous administration.
