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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
more specifically in the opening 10km of the run. //

Ali is a really smart racer, and I think that is one of the hard lessons he just learned in Nice. He underestimated the leader, put in a surge to catch and pass him, and then paid for that later. If Iden was not going to be on that day, it may have worked and he would continue to think this a good strategy. But getting spanked has a way of making one a bit more reflective, and listening to a couple of his interviews since that race, he admits that was a mistake. And he knows there are guys just like that going to Kona, and it is new territory for him, so I expect he will not race aggressive, but use what pace he believes he can hold. Of course in a marathon that is really tricky, it will feel super slow for him to actually run low 6 minute pace, when his is more used to 5 to 5;20 paces..But that's what watches are for....
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Should we put money on this

Brownlee

  • first 3 miles sub 5:30 pace which is way sub 2:30 pace
  • last 3 miles (including Palani donwhill > 7 pace (so in excess of 3 hrs marathon pace).


He needs to watch Dave vs Mark and Dave jogging on Alii Drive and Mark just copying Dave. The guys look like they are barely moving. Go to 4:18 in this video when Dave and Mark pass Wolfgang. I'd say they are generally moving slower than most of the top pros move at these days out of T2 because they are trying to play a tactical game and shed followers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOcz-wPLLRE

If you open part 5 of this series they say that they covered 4 miles at just over 2:40 marathon pace. So the guys actually negative split the day (keeping in mind that they had to do the pit in the first 4 miles so that would slow things down somewhat).
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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He certainly says all the right things in he interview. He just posted a shirtless running video recently and he looks incredibly lean.

We’ll see. Watching him and Johnny on the run in Rio made me a little queasy - he just looked like he was suffering so much. Maybe he wasn’t really, but it look ones painful. Like, unsustainably painful over 26.2.

I think he has the tools to win if he uses them correctly.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
more specifically in the opening 10km of the run. //

Ali is a really smart racer, and I think that is one of the hard lessons he just learned in Nice. He underestimated the leader, put in a surge to catch and pass him, and then paid for that later. If Iden was not going to be on that day, it may have worked and he would continue to think this a good strategy. But getting spanked has a way of making one a bit more reflective, and listening to a couple of his interviews since that race, he admits that was a mistake. And he knows there are guys just like that going to Kona, and it is new territory for him, so I expect he will not race aggressive, but use what pace he believes he can hold. Of course in a marathon that is really tricky, it will feel super slow for him to actually run low 6 minute pace, when his is more used to 5 to 5;20 paces..But that's what watches are for....
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Hey Monty, AB only ran 2:51 on the run at IM Cork. I have no clue it is he was just out jogging all day, or if he positive split and was just getting a paid long training day under his belt. But the 2:51 run at Cork combined with being substantially outrun at Nice does not neccessarily point to a great springboard for a Kona win. On a plus side he is 3 kilos or so ligher than Sebi and 5 kilos ligher than Frodo, 2 kilos lighter than Sanders. That always helps with heat management even if we say heat is not always his friend.
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
He certainly says all the right things in he interview. He just posted a shirtless running video recently and he looks incredibly lean.

We’ll see. Watching him and Johnny on the run in Rio made me a little queasy - he just looked like he was suffering so much. Maybe he wasn’t really, but it look ones painful. Like, unsustainably painful over 26.2.

I think he has the tools to win if he uses them correctly.

Dude was laying it on the line to win an Olympic medal.
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [andy12] [ In reply to ]
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Absolutely - and it was magnificent! He just needs to match tactics to the race.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [andy12] [ In reply to ]
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Dude was laying it on the line to win an Olympic medal. //

No kidding, running sub 4;50 pace in the biggest race of his life, he should look pained!! And that pace vs around 6;10 pace, is going to seem like a jog for sometime. Of course that is the sneaky part of the marathon, at some point around 15 or so, that pace seems a lot harder than it did at 5 miles in. I think he will do fine, although I do not think he is winning this race. Right now I kind of have him around 3rd to 6th..
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [Pyrenean Wolf] [ In reply to ]
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Do you have actual insight into AB's training program? I ask because you use the word "apparently" and then provide us a matter of fact lecture.

Serious question on where your sources are coming from.




Pyrenean Wolf wrote:
Apparently AB is training with quite a lot intensity.

On the other hand Iden is training (thanks Arild for the insight in Norwegian training routine) with much more low and medium intensity, with his teammates Blu and Stornes.

IMO, from this simple observation, I would guess (not a very educated guess, however) that at 70.3 race pace, AB is relying more than Iden on glycogen, while Iden is relying more than AB on fat consumption.

FTP is obtained 100% from glycogen consumption. Great for an hour record, but does this have an impact on IM distance ?
No. Not directly.
A 70kg guy with a FTP of 380w can be much better in IM than a 70kg guy with 400w FTP, if its fat consumption is better trained. Because IM is more relying on fat consumption.

Don't get me wrong, AB is great.

But my view is that he is relying too much on sugar consumption, creating problems at 70.3 distance and even more at IM distance :
70.3 Nice WC : slowing at the end, and apparently getting gastric issues
IM Ireland : seriously slowing at the end, not capable of feeding the body.

My view for Kona :
AT not on the podium. Possibly top 10. Possibly not finishing with gastric issues.
If Iden was in Kona, he would blow AT away :-)

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching



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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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I don't understand your correlation between looking painful over 10k when trying to win Olympic Gold and thinking he's going to try and sustain the same type of suffering in a 10k to a marathon?


MI_Mumps wrote:
He certainly says all the right things in he interview. He just posted a shirtless running video recently and he looks incredibly lean.

We’ll see. Watching him and Johnny on the run in Rio made me a little queasy - he just looked like he was suffering so much. Maybe he wasn’t really, but it look ones painful. Like, unsustainably painful over 26.2.

I think he has the tools to win if he uses them correctly.

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching



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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [Brandes] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, poor correlation at best. More just an observation on how rough he looked, like in comparison to a Gomez or Mola who perhaps have a better poker face. Probably no relevance to the race. The conversation about Ali and how well he does or does not do in heat just reminded me of that race in particular.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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I agree, Brownlee rarely looked like those two when he races but I have to believe he's intelligent enough to race smart and tactical and pick his moments. He is someone you cannot discount with his proven track record of winning the big races. I don't believe he will win this year, but I would also never pick Lange to win Kona but he continues to win... so who really knows.

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching



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Re: Brownlee going for KONA! [NAB777] [ In reply to ]
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NAB777 wrote:
Wurf's looking pretty solid in Italy. 4.09 bike after a 46.30 swim (wetsuit) - and running well so far.
Interesting to see if he backs off the second half but it would be great for the race if he brings this sort of form to Hawaii in 3 weeks.


So Wurf goes Sadler and drills a 4:10 bike and Ali throws down a 36min opening 10K. There could be carnage as some of the race favorites respond... or do they bet that two of the most talented individuals in the field will fold? Experience in managing the conditions will likely prevail ;-)
Last edited by: Wild Horse: Sep 21, 19 13:50
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