Damn them. Damn them both.

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https://connect.garmin.com/modern/profile/domingjm

My observation goes along with what you say. You have to do SOMETHING in order to run that fast at that age. I read an article that talked about how runners need about 8 years of consistent training to reach their peak. A runner piped in and talked about how he was a so-so consistent runner in high school but then ran in college and post-college. The four post-college years still showed some good improvement, but then the next four trying to get the Olympics (i.e. 8-12) saw a very mininmal pr in the 5K (4 secs) with 4 years of full-time training.
Additionally, I was trying to figure out why some of the college coaches were not giving my son the time of day when I would call (he had a modest 4:24, 1600) when they had a bunch of guys running that time that they had signed. I used athletic.net to reasearch the top 10 high school runners in America at 1600 and compared their college results. They all ran between 4:05 and 4:06 in HS. The average improvement in a converted 1500 time was 4 seconds over four years of college. One guy of 10 made it to 3:40. I think maybe 2 or 3 went mid-3:40s and the rest essentially continued to run the same speed as their high school times. Since my son had some challenges (mainly asthma) that really limited his performance over the last two years, I tried to use that information to encourage him to keep at it. If a kids starts running with a club or something when they are 12 or so, then (barring injury, and assuming good coaching) by the time they hit the end of high school, they are probably 95 percent or higher towards their max potential. Guys with talent that are not as far along will catch up eventually, if they do the work.
Just this year our female Calif phenom disappeared as a senior after having sensational sophomore and junior years. (Two time Footlocker Nationals winner and 9:52 at 3200.) Another Calif phenom who flirted with breaking the 4-min mile as a senior ran 3:41 at Oregon as a freshman, but his times are trending slower as a sophomore and junior. The list goes on.

Yes! We’ll be there. He’d scratched the 200m last week although it appears he would have qualified but the biggest disappointment was the official stepping into the exchange in the 4x400 and knocking the kids out of contention and a return to Masters.

He’ll have his work cut out for him in both events. His 48.2 puts him 8th and he’ll need to improve to get to Finals.

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