Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Explain the Lyft IPO
Quote | Reply
We have another company that can't make a profit...

"Investors overlooked the company’s lack of profits and drove Lyft to price its shares at $72 on Thursday, the top of its range, which gives the company an estimated valuation of more than $24 billion."

I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that people are paying too much for Lyft. The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further. And when Uber does come to the market we'll see a price war that will hurt both companies and drive their stocks down. So what's Lyft's end game? To be bought? Or is it just hubris by Lyft's management?

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jkca1 wrote:
We have another company that can't make a profit...

Amazon didn't make a profit for the longest time and it's market cap was YUGE! And now its making profit and it's YUGE!

But yeah, I don't see Lyft (or Uber, or AirB&B) doing the same. The barriers to entry are too low.

Here is how I view investors in Lyft:




Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
1) the price war between uber and lyft has nothing to do with their stock being public. Not sure what you are even saying about that.

2) Ride sharing logistics is complicated. The autos know this and have no designs - other than Tesla who will fizzle at it - to enter the market alone. The automakers will partner with Lyft and Uber because of the data they possess. Cars will be expensive, but they will generate revenue. Fewer people will be able to own them. Exponentially more ride sharing. $24B? Hmmm. How would you frame that valuation if ride sharing in the US alone increases to millions per day?
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jkca1 wrote:
So what's Lyft's end game? To be bought? Or is it just hubris by Lyft's management?

They are raising capital to fund operations and/or acquisitions while also creating a currency for acquisitions. This also allows early investors and employees to get paid.

Overpriced probably but depends on what you think the future is since stock prices are the discounted future prospects of the compamy.

Smallish float and every asshat hipster with Robin Hood probably bought a 10 lot. If you think it's overpriced with conviction help make the market efficient and short it.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jkca1 wrote:
The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further.


GM is already an early investor underwriting Lyft as a way to bring their autonomous ride-sharing Cruise vehicle to the San Francisco market, perhaps as soon as year-end 2019. This is really "a thing" ;-)

DFL > DNF > DNS
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [SallyShortyPnts] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
jkca1 wrote:
The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further.


GM is already an early investor underwriting Lyft as a way to bring their autonomous ride-sharing Cruise vehicle to the San Francisco market, perhaps as soon as year-end 2019. This is really "a thing" ;-)

Have you seen any projections on where the auto industry will be in 5 years vs. the growth of autonomous cars?

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jkca1 wrote:
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
jkca1 wrote:
The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further.



GM is already an early investor underwriting Lyft as a way to bring their autonomous ride-sharing Cruise vehicle to the San Francisco market, perhaps as soon as year-end 2019. This is really "a thing" ;-)


Have you seen any projections on where the auto industry will be in 5 years vs. the growth of autonomous cars?


I am sitting at the airport waiting for a flying ride share vehicle that I don’t own. The auto manufacturers are preparing to roll out similar ground-based programs now.

In New York, many people don’t own vehicles. If I have my choice of where to spend $100,00 in 5 years, it will not likely be to purchase my own AV.

DFL > DNF > DNS
Last edited by: SallyShortyPnts: Mar 29, 19 11:42
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [SallyShortyPnts] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
jkca1 wrote:
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
jkca1 wrote:
The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further.



GM is already an early investor underwriting Lyft as a way to bring their autonomous ride-sharing Cruise vehicle to the San Francisco market, perhaps as soon as year-end 2019. This is really "a thing" ;-)


Have you seen any projections on where the auto industry will be in 5 years vs. the growth of autonomous cars?


I am sitting at the airport waiting for a flying ride share vehicle that I don’t own. The auto manufacturers are preparing to roll out similar ground-based programs now.

In New York, many people don’t own vehicles. If I have my choice of where to spend $100,00 in 5 years, it will not likely be to purchase my own AV.

I am about a year away from owning just one car. For my other rides it will be ride share. I am trying to get the crystal ball to predict what automotive companies will be hit the worst from declining personal auto ownership. Lyft is constantly offering me discounted rides in "luxury" vehicles, and I don't even bother driving to dinner if we are going to drink. So I see the tides changing but I would really like more clarity on the winners and losers in the upcoming shift. Given the choice between a driver and a autonomous car I am going driver-less. Sorry humans.

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jkca1 wrote:
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
jkca1 wrote:
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
jkca1 wrote:
The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further.



GM is already an early investor underwriting Lyft as a way to bring their autonomous ride-sharing Cruise vehicle to the San Francisco market, perhaps as soon as year-end 2019. This is really "a thing" ;-)


Have you seen any projections on where the auto industry will be in 5 years vs. the growth of autonomous cars?


I am sitting at the airport waiting for a flying ride share vehicle that I don’t own. The auto manufacturers are preparing to roll out similar ground-based programs now.

In New York, many people don’t own vehicles. If I have my choice of where to spend $100,00 in 5 years, it will not likely be to purchase my own AV.

I am about a year away from owning just one car. For my other rides it will be ride share. I am trying to get the crystal ball to predict what automotive companies will be hit the worst from declining personal auto ownership. Lyft is constantly offering me discounted rides in "luxury" vehicles, and I don't even bother driving to dinner if we are going to drink. So I see the tides changing but I would really like more clarity on the winners and losers in the upcoming shift. Given the choice between a driver and a autonomous car I am going driver-less. Sorry humans.

Ford and GM have been declining for many years. Amazon/Uber and Google/Waymo are on their way up. All secondary and supporting companies, such as Nvidia are be lifted as well.

I anticipate highway HOV lanes becoming AV lanes in the very near future, with a bottle-neck from 5G build out.

DFL > DNF > DNS
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [SallyShortyPnts] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
In New York, many people don’t own vehicles. If I have my choice of where to spend $100,00 in 5 years, it will not likely be to purchase my own AV.

I would consider it, if it's truly autonomous. If I'm not in my car, it's out there as an Uber/ Lyft and making me money.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jkca1 wrote:
We have another company that can't make a profit...

"Investors overlooked the company’s lack of profits and drove Lyft to price its shares at $72 on Thursday, the top of its range, which gives the company an estimated valuation of more than $24 billion."

I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that people are paying too much for Lyft. The autonomous car market is not here yet. It may be viable in 3 - 5 years, but by then GM, BMW, Tesla or Mercedes may have their own subsidiary for driver-less cars fracturing the market further. And when Uber does come to the market we'll see a price war that will hurt both companies and drive their stocks down. So what's Lyft's end game? To be bought? Or is it just hubris by Lyft's management?

You do know GM is part owner of lyft.. On theory GM builds the vehicle sells it to Cruise, who then operates them as Lyft rides. I have No inside information this is just one theory why GM has not gotten out of Lyft since it got in with cruise. But as it stands GM owns most of Cruise and has a large share in Lyft.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I finally bought my Lyft shares at about the same price ($68) as what was supposed to be the original I.P.O. price.

Only time will tell how it fares, but at at least it wasn’t a market order on opening day at $87...

DFL > DNF > DNS
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [SallyShortyPnts] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
I finally bought my Lyft shares at about the same price ($68) as what was supposed to be the original I.P.O. price.

Only time will tell how it fares, but at at least it wasn’t a market order on opening day at $87...

Good luck. I just don't see it. So far anyone who bought in the open market has lost money.

I tend to agree with the analyst who came out today with a sell rating and a $42 price target.
The valuation is ridiculous. Lyft reported a loss of $911 million in 2018, wider than its $688 million loss in 2017, despite revenue doubling in 2018 to $2.16 billion. It has not said when it expects to become profitable.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [stillrollin] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
stillrollin wrote:
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
I finally bought my Lyft shares at about the same price ($68) as what was supposed to be the original I.P.O. price.

Only time will tell how it fares, but at at least it wasn’t a market order on opening day at $87...


Good luck. I just don't see it. So far anyone who bought in the open market has lost money.

I tend to agree with the analyst who came out today with a sell rating and a $42 price target.
The valuation is ridiculous. Lyft reported a loss of $911 million in 2018, wider than its $688 million loss in 2017, despite revenue doubling in 2018 to $2.16 billion. It has not said when it expects to become profitable.

Spending $3 to make $2 is a formula for failure.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [windywave] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
The market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.....

The value in lyft / uber is software not hardware and though Musk is not a good example, physically engineering and building cars is easier than coding autonomous vehicles

Lyft / uber will come in to their own when the technology of autonomous vehicles meets cities that have a driverless infrastructure

I think it will be several years, but like electric vehicles, there will be a tipping point and if they last that long they get many of the spoils
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Andrewmc wrote:
The market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.....

The value in lyft / uber is software not hardware and though Musk is not a good example, physically engineering and building cars is easier than coding autonomous vehicles

Lyft / uber will come in to their own when the technology of autonomous vehicles meets cities that have a driverless infrastructure

I think it will be several years, but like electric vehicles, there will be a tipping point and if they last that long they get many of the spoils


I worked as a retail broker for Morgan Stanley in the late 90's when people were incredulous over our book store IPO that was a mega-money loser. People are not laughing at Amazon now; I have learned and I can wait ;-)

DFL > DNF > DNS
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [stillrollin] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
stillrollin wrote:
SallyShortyPnts wrote:
I finally bought my Lyft shares at about the same price ($68) as what was supposed to be the original I.P.O. price.

Only time will tell how it fares, but at at least it wasn’t a market order on opening day at $87...


Good luck. I just don't see it. So far anyone who bought in the open market has lost money.

I tend to agree with the analyst who came out today with a sell rating and a $42 price target.
The valuation is ridiculous. Lyft reported a loss of $911 million in 2018, wider than its $688 million loss in 2017, despite revenue doubling in 2018 to $2.16 billion. It has not said when it expects to become profitable.

"We lose money on every transaction but we make it up for it in volume."
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Down 8% today, under $62.

They were first but the ridiculous valuation and the pending Uber IPO appear to be taking a toll.

Lookout below
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [stillrollin] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
A bunch of Unicorns are going to rush to market in the coming months. I don’t see it ending well.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Down 20% last week and another 6% today to $56.
Lyft has ended more trading days in the negative than positive since its debut on March 29.

The Uber roadshow can't be going well. Not that I feel bad for the bankers.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [stillrollin] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Lyft just rolled out an update as they continue to follow Uber.

Drivers get paid a flat fee during prime time while passengers still pay a large multiplier.

How willing are passengers to get in old, dirty cars with sketchy drivers? That is where Lyft and Uber are heading. I don't see either of them rolling out truly autonomous rideshare vehicles within the next 5 years. Can they continue to remain open that long while losing billions per year?
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [stillrollin] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
stillrollin wrote:
Down 20% last week and another 6% today to $56.
Lyft has ended more trading days in the negative than positive since its debut on March 29.

The Uber roadshow can't be going well. Not that I feel bad for the bankers.

I tend to agree with you regarding the road show. It would be very difficult to explain to any potential investors how Uber is materially different than Lyft.
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [Bumble Bee] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Bumble Bee wrote:
Lyft just rolled out an update as they continue to follow Uber.

Drivers get paid a flat fee during prime time while passengers still pay a large multiplier.

How willing are passengers to get in old, dirty cars with sketchy drivers? That is where Lyft and Uber are heading. I don't see either of them rolling out truly autonomous rideshare vehicles within the next 5 years. Can they continue to remain open that long while losing billions per year?

Where did you see the information about the Lyft drivers getting a flat fee during prime time?

I miss YaHey
Quote Reply
Re: Explain the Lyft IPO [Justgeorge] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I have a driver Lyft account.
Like scrUber, they roll it out a few markets at a time.
Quote Reply