SPD a P3, get a fancier handlebar, get a Quarq and some HED race wheels, etc. Pocket the extra $2k

Ditto above. Between those 3, get a P3 and swap the cockpit and front brake.

I'd get a QR PR3 and upgrade the bars, front brake, wheels, get a good PM, fit and aero testing, etc. Or a P2, same deal.

Interesting as this is exactly what I have been considering. Build up a PR3 frame with either Etap or Di2, Tririg cockpit and brakes, HED Jet 6 wheels, put my Vector 2 pedals on it. Clean, reliable, functional.

Just went thru this process. Was leaning towards the QR PR4 Disc. Was going to upgrade the wheels and that put me around your price point. Found a 2017 Trek Speed Concept 9 with Di2 just before I pulled the trigger on the QR and decided to go in that direction. Saved some money on a great bike and we'll see how it works out this season. I felt like Cervelo; Trek and Specialized will all release new Disc Tri bikes later in the year. If I go back to a new bike, QR will be at the top and also will be assessing the new releases.

x3

Hmm. I feel like a pr4 disc upgraded would end up being cleaner and more practical than a p3 upgraded. Draft box+bento and disc brakes seems like a pretty big win for the pr4. Hard to know what the cost of each would be to OP considering their discount but I would take a pr4 disc over a p3 any day in the current tri bike market.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
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I'd go with a PR3 and build it up from a frame.

What does SPD mean?

if OP works at a cervelo dealer then they'll know