Maybe did a sprint in 2018?

For some reason I didn't think you could qualify for Nats with a sprint distance, but I could be totally wrong.

You can qualify with any distance and the sprint race at AG Nats doesn't need qualification (OP wanting to do the Olympic will need qualifying mark).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Again, I really appreciate the advice and discussion from everyone! Definitely motivating. I'll get some stand alone times and report back with better data for you all. To answer a few comments:

Did you win state? Did you get scholarship offers? What was your best flat start 50 free, short course yards, timed with touchpads?
Didn't win state for the 50 free (winner my year / division went sub 21), but our team won the relays and overall meet. My best flat start 50 free was a 21.3. This was my senior year and because swimming is a spring sport, you really get recruited off of your junior year times (I went 21.6 for a 50 free in a relay but no individual events at the big meet). My option at that point was to head to a college without a men's swimming program (which I chose), swim D3 for no scholarship at schools I wasn't really excited about, or spend a year swimming for a community college and see what schools I could transfer in to.

Why has your training been so sporadic since 2017?
I've been training and racing in the occasional triathlon for fun and to stay in shape, but haven't been taking it seriously up to this point. I'll get a race on the calendar and then train for a month or two leading up to it, then do nothing either because of the holidays, demanding work schedule, or most recently MBA apps / interviews which was a more grueling process than I expected. I'm interested now in really putting my head down and training because apps are behind me and I'll soon take the summer completely off of work as well. I'm curious to see what kind of gains I could make with full focus on training.

Alright, I'm confused.... based on this quote from the OP, you haven't even qualified for Nationals yet. Did I miss something?
I qualified for nationals in two sprint races in 2018. To qualify you must finish first or top 15% in your age group in a USAT sanctioned event (sprints count). In one race I biked 18.2 mph (17 mile course) and ran 8 min miles (4 mile course), and the other race I biked 18.4 mph (8 mile course) and ran 7:30 min miles (5k course).

Just as a point of clarification--the swim at AGNC in Cleveland this past year was measurably long (I had 2k on my Garmin) and got progressively rougher as the waves went out. I was in the last wave w/ 3-4' rollers. I normally swim 23ish minutes and it was 30m for me and I actually felt like I did a proper job of it. The bike was pretty typical, the run was very twisty and crowded---so paces were a little slow, IMHO.

Per

Just a general comment:

There is some merit, and should hopefully be some enjoyment, in a gradual improvement process that spans many years. My journey from ~2:35 to ~2 hours in Olys took me 3-4 years, and I enjoyed dropping a few minutes here and there as I learned about better and more consistent ways to train, improved my equipment and fit, and got more experience racing and pacing (which should not be discounted). So while you may have the raw talent to qualify for Worlds now, you may have to look at it more as a journey and think about how to get to your goals gradually, all the while learning and enjoying the races you do now. If you do everything right in the next 5 months you'll surely improve, but success shouldn't be defined as going from "casual" to "elite" in 5 months, just as with most things in life.

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Strava

I'm solidly in the minority here, but I think you have an outside shot... so I'll play.

You are going to have to have a truly elite swim-bike combo to do it. There is no way your run gets far enough along in 5 months to carry you there... just not enough time and you are too slow to start. Even 40' 10k would be outstanding for you in 5 months, given your sprint run times last year.

My $.02, you should probably get yourself on trainerroad and start burying yourself. That's the only way you'll get there, with your bike.

I'm already assuming an ace swim (given your swim history) and on-point aerodynamics in your "qualify for worlds" scenario, so get in the pool and get yourself the right equipment.

Get your FTP to 5 w/kg and you're golden... even with a mediocre run
Get your FTP to 4.5 w/kg and you have a fighting shot...even with a mediocre un

Time to train!

Isn’t 5 w/kg close to pro-level?

solidly cat 1 on the charts for a man, but not "pro" level power.

But remember, OP asked how to qualify for worlds in 25-29 while only running 7:30 pace in sprints last year. He isn't about to drop a 35' 10k anytime soon.

But with 5 months of extremely focused, top-end cycling training, someone with solid amount of latent (but unexpressed) talent could very conceivably get his FTP into the mid to upper 4's w/kg.

Hahahahaha.

Yeahhhh.

In my opinion you need a really good coach to get there without getting injured. I am building for Age Group Nationals as my A race also this year. I've been consistently training basically since my first Triathlon in 2017, max 1-2 weeks off for family vacations/recovery. I started working with a coach about 1.5 years ago and it has really helped with keeping me from pushing too far and also helped me focus on the workouts that I really should push. He follows my progress and recovery. On several occasions when the results of certain workouts have shown signs of over-training or I just give him feedback on my general feelings he can switch up training and help to keep me from pushing past the point of no return. I personally want to win every workout and that's just not going to work. Stay consistent. Try to find someone that can give you the feedback and guidance on when to push and when to take it easy. I think it is a great motivator to push for a worlds spot. I want one, but if I go out and race a good race and get beat I won't be upset. Goals that push you to train hard (smart) and enjoy training are awesome. Expectations that can leave you devastated can be counterproductive. So, shoot for a goal and go in with reasonable expectations.

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/23685202

Sure while thats not pro cycling power, that could very well be pro triathlete level, which is arguably more relevant. Getting to those kind of numbers that fast would be near impossible, regardless of latent athleticism.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

Similar situation about 10 years ago.

Changed jobs and country, found myself with 4 months free to train for my first ironman. Had done several Olympic distances prior (around 2.40); immediately before my4 month hiatus, I did a Sprint in about 1.10. Note: I have no particular sports background.

Spent 4 months training "hard", peaked at 15hrs/week. Was often injured on the run during those 4 months. Did Israman Full distance in 2009 and I came 15th out of 60 overall (more or less)

A lot can be achieved in 5 months. Don't think about where you will end up, think about doing the work today / tomorrow / next week / next month. And... Be uber conservative on your run training that is where you will probably break down.

...and... If I were a betting man, I would say you are not going to hit 2.11 for an Oly! But prove me wrong!

Hope this helps

I really agree with this. I’m a casual age grouper and a coach has been super helpful making sure I’m training smart. Making sure I’m resting and going easy when I should be. For my easy workouts and get lots of DO NOT LET ME SEE A PACE FASTER THAN XXX!!! Before a coach I definitely had some times when I overtrained as I thought I should always be going hard.

I don’t think you have a snowball’s chance in hell. The fact that you couldn’t answer simple questions directly is a red flag, as is your lackadaisical approach to training and lack of commitment. It seems maybe you’re not very mature mentally and to advance at the level you’re talking will take natural athleticism and serious mental toughness and drive. You already indicated that you have issues with the mental side of the equation. Remember you’re talking of going from casual to elite, not just above average. Finally, your bike and run suck. I mean really bad. I’m not trying to burst your bubble, but in my opinion you need to have an end goal, which you have, and some realistic intermediate goals (which you don’t have). If you can’t even commit to regular training how do you expect to go from casual to elite in a few months? It’s just not very realistic.

Whats your size/height and weight? I had a similar goal years back when I was into triathlon and failed because I was just too large. I mean, I'm 6'2 and weighed 200lbs, was a decent swimmer but always burned all my energy up in the swim and bike. If you have a large body size, I think the best thing you can do to improve speed and endurance is get really lean. Train of course, but get ripped. Just my opinion.

I wish you wouldn't always sit on the fence.