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help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out
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have not done any serious swim or bike this year. about 15 years of running experience from military and triathlon, not including lifelong athletics.

half PR 1:31 (OTB)
full PR 3:42 (2014, was fit enough to run <3:30 but did not know how to fuel)

YTD run totals and averages
avg. 4/week for 30 miles
high - 6 for 50
low - 1 for 10 (moving)
long - 18

half marathon yesterday. overweight and have not raced in a while so didn't really know what to expect, which explains pacing, but it least it went in the right direction.

splits
48:xx
45:xx
1:34:xx

first 7 miles were pretty steady at an average of 7:23/mi. which felt easy (good conditions and adrenaline). 8 and 9 approx. 7:10 and not too bad. 10 and 11 at 7, tough be manageable. 12 and 13 at 6:30 which was everything I had left.

6 weeks out. will have a long run in low to mid 20's and plan to average 5.5 runs/week going forward, also should lose some weight...…… so, can I break 3:20?
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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sooners175] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, although course profile and race day temps will play a big factor in whether you make it.
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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sooners175] [ In reply to ]
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Half x2 + 10 minutes?
3:18
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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sooners175] [ In reply to ]
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6 weeks? Overweight?

I know you probably mean a few lbs, but drop 0.5 lbs a week and you just found a few minutes right there. Should leave you under 3:20.

Too old to go pro but doing it anyway
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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sooners175] [ In reply to ]
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sooners175 wrote:
have not done any serious swim or bike this year. about 15 years of running experience from military and triathlon, not including lifelong athletics.

half PR 1:31 (OTB)
full PR 3:42 (2014, was fit enough to run <3:30 but did not know how to fuel)

YTD run totals and averages
avg. 4/week for 30 miles
high - 6 for 50
low - 1 for 10 (moving)
long - 18

half marathon yesterday. overweight and have not raced in a while so didn't really know what to expect, which explains pacing, but it least it went in the right direction.

splits
48:xx
45:xx
1:34:xx

first 7 miles were pretty steady at an average of 7:23/mi. which felt easy (good conditions and adrenaline). 8 and 9 approx. 7:10 and not too bad. 10 and 11 at 7, tough be manageable. 12 and 13 at 6:30 which was everything I had left.

6 weeks out. will have a long run in low to mid 20's and plan to average 5.5 runs/week going forward, also should lose some weight...…… so, can I break 3:20?

I think it may be a stretch, but I do not see enough window (6 weeks inclusive of short taper) to get there based on what you have done to this point. Lightening in a bottle seldom happens after mile 18. I think you may find it challenging on the back end, but give her crack;)

Not trying to be negative, you have the engine to run it and likely faster, but the runway seems a bit short to me.

Good Luck!
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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sooners175] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, that's a good target. I'd have you around 3:18-20. Good luck!

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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sooners175] [ In reply to ]
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3:18-3:20 sounds realistic. I ran a 1:33 half in January and I'm targeting (best case scenario) a 3:15:xx next month, and pretty sure I can run under 3:18 with good conditions. I've run a pair of 3:19's when I was a minute slower over the half. This assumes you (and I) can stay healthy.


<The Dew Abides>
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Re: help me pace/predict my marathon - 6 weeks out [sligotri] [ In reply to ]
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sligotri wrote:
Yes, that's a good target. I'd have you around 3:18-20. Good luck!

x 3

If u fuel and pace it well, 3.18 - 3.20 is on the money
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