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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
Don’t get me started.

Oh, I'm getting it started.

I'm sure our local wackos are looking to your local wackos for inspiration.

One of them recently decided, after 4 months of being a city council, to run as a federal MLA (our equivalent to your Congress), pretty much using AOC's entire platform.

Fantastic.

Long Chile was a silly place.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [BCtriguy1] [ In reply to ]
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BCtriguy1 wrote:
Nailed it.

x2
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [efernand] [ In reply to ]
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efernand wrote:
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I see a LOT of assumptions by a LOT of people. It's pretty shallow and stupid.


Funny that you followed up that sentence with a lot of shallow and stupid assumptions about other people. SMH


Haters gonna hate, right?

I'll own that one. The shoe has been thrown over and over, so I picked it up and threw it back.

Yeah. Well, that's just like your opinion, man. In fact, the rich old Lebowski from the rug reimbursement scene pretty much personifies how I feel every time the ole millenial hate train gets a rollin.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJjCnWm5cvE
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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This.

This is exactly my parents. Love and respect them, enjoyed my big house, when I was younger, but my parents were tired. My junior year of college I stayed with a friend's parents and they sat down on the couch and watched TV together after dinner one night, and I realized I couldn't remember the last time my parents had done so.

After I graduated, I had an offer to assistant coach for an NCAA D1 women's tri team, and one to work for the City of a small town in Idaho (grew up vacationing here, love it). One of the two main deciding factors in choosing the City job was the desire to be able to turn work "off" and sit on my porch in the evenings. I knew that if I chose to pursue coaching NCAA, I would be on the move (races, switching schools if NCAA gained full status, etc) constantly, and would end up exhausted like my parents.

Ten months later, I'm happy with this decision. Check back in 10 years.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Alvin Tostig wrote:
My n=1 thoughts based on my 27 year old daughter, her boy friend, and their friends.

They buy fairly pricey stuff (handbags, golf clubs, shoes, restaurant diners, weekend trips to NYC, Dallas, and San Diego, concert tickets, etc.) that my wife and I never spent a lot of money on.

But they drive old vehicles and live in a rental house.

They've got money, but fancy cars and big houses aren't a big deal as far as they're concerned.

Agree.. I love the folks who hear Millennials and think 20yrs olds as someone else said the oldest of that gen are now 30. Many of them making lots of dough.

I think you have hit my point.. if they don't want / dont buy the big house, they dont have room for stuff. Which in this digital age works, but its the other stuff, also. The knick nacks the crap that fills that big house, that are not getting / or going to be bought. My experience is they have no desire to own it when they can pull up a pic of it on their phone. They don't need a scrap book they can look at the photos online...

So far this thread has not gone where I thought, as I didn't think there was that much resistance to the the idea there are Melennials with 8yrs of work experience post college making good coin (the slacker Melennial concept needed to die years ago) but they spend that coin differently and do some may appear slackers driving their older car, wearing older clothes, living in a small house. Buying expensive items to that they want. To me its a big change that's coming and I am trying to understand the impact.

One of them probably is don't get caught with McMansion, cause the next gen doesn't want it. Now maybe you could change it to 4 rental units and make some money from it that way.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Grant.Reuter wrote:
j p o wrote:
Duffy wrote:
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It seems the Millennials and younger have less desire to own things.


This idea is largely a media fabrication.

It’s not that they don’t want to own things they just haven’t come to grips with the hard work it sometimes takes to do it.

Yep, 4 anecdotes do not make a trend.

It is also that they just don't have the means to do buy stuff yet. I was a minimalist too when I was 22. Everything I owned fit in my car. I was also broke as shit.

I think most young kids have to learn that you need to go to work to get things. I remember I was astounded when I was in law school that in a classroom with around 100 people the vast majority had never had a job of any kind. I had a job continually from the time I was 16 and had no idea that other kids somehow got through college without even a summer job.

Don't tell me what 20 - 25 year olds are doing, come back when they still don't want a house or car when they are 35 with 2 kids.


This. I’m almost 35, so on the front end of what is considered millennial. Sure there are some people that are being minimalist with the income but most are being minimalist because they don’t have the money. Do the math on 100k in student loans (not hard to do). Hell even the math on 50k in student loans. It’s a big hamper on wanting things. I would be minimalist too when you can’t afford anything major.

As one of the posters said, it’s a lot easier to act like you’re minimalist, when you’re broke and your making micro daily payments to Starbucks, uber, the scooter companies etc.

I work with a lot of people who are my age or a bit younger, it’s not that they don’t want things, it’s just very hard to afford major purchases. I live in the Denver area, a starter condo, in a decent area is 250-300k. When you’re paying 1500+ a month for an apartment, while paying off loans, it becomes very difficult to save up for the down payment.

Let’s see how minimalist this generation is when they hit 40-45 and they’re married with kids. Maybe it will stick but I think it’s unlikely for most.

Grant your close to the front, but do you not have any friends who have positive cash flow. Like I said I look at the sub 30 yr olds we have working here as engineers making good coin, little to no debt issues now, and they all seem to choose to spend money on having better experiences than having more things. I don't think its a minimalist movement, from talking to them. Its a different choice. I can buy the big house and all the crap or I can save more for an earlier retirement and go on some nice vacations, and buy my more expensive craft beer. They choose the experiences.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
My son asked me how much it takes to maintain a car and when I told him it made him look sick.

So I guess it’s a littl of both.

Not sure you really have the car side right. It's not hard these days to lease a car for $150 - $200 a month, zero maintenance. Its hard to get even a used car with maintenance down to that price. It can be done, but its some work.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [burnthesheep] [ In reply to ]
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burnthesheep wrote:
I was born in '84, so think I qualify. ..
We live in a nice area with good school opportunities and activities for us and our kids. The house is physically smaller and the lot smaller than what I grew up with in a more rural town. We do not have a house full of shit plastic toys, do not own 3 or 4 televisions, nor do we lease or buy brand new cars all the time.

Instead, I max out our retirement and we keep savings for emergencies. We chose to NOT have to argue about finances as a couple/family unit by living within our means.

We choose to pay more for nicer quality food, for cooking or otherwise. My parent's generation saved money shopping for shit nasty food. I remember both of them always having pretty nice newer cars and our house full of crap but you'd have to chew on your pork chop for 5 minutes to be able to swallow it because they bought such cheap shit groceries. Not to mention the store brand box-kit pizza kits and other really nasty "fast prep" meals that my family and lots of others from that generation grew up feeding their families. Not to mention the "chain restaurant" generation of my parents. Chilis, Olive Garden, etc........ Pretty much microwaved crap.

I'm sorry that I prefer a sit down restaurant that didn't cut open a bag and nuke my dinner in the microwave and slap it on a plate. I worked for that money I'm about to pay, so it better be good.

No wonder we have such horrendous health habits these days. We grew up eating trash, literally pretty much trash........to afford more "stuff" by eating cheap junk.

I'm sorry I don't want to spend my life literally eating dog food so that I can afford a nicer car. I'd rather snack on manchego and pino at night than Sam's cola and cheese puffs. That's worth driving a well maintained economy CUV instead of a brand new Denali or BMW or something. And that's an exaggeration at that to assume it would cost that much more to eat better.

I see this kind of backlash from our parent's generation a lot. Turn their noses up at fancier coffee or food choices. OK. Enjoy your trash food.

Our parent's generation gave us the messes we have today.....a disposable goods society up to and including appliances and cars, debt, the diabetes epidemic, rampant heart disease, really bad numbers on mental health and suicide,............but, we've got lots of "stuff". Congrats!

I see a future of an attempt at the rejection of some of these norms. At least our family is.

Thanks for supporting my premise.. I wish this thread would have gone where I hoped and we could talk about the consequences / impact to society and businesses people living these choices are going to make. Instead Duffy and few have turned it into a bash on that generation, and an argument about it. Oh well welcome to the Lavender room

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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DavHamm wrote:
Grant.Reuter wrote:
j p o wrote:
Duffy wrote:
Quote:
It seems the Millennials and younger have less desire to own things.


This idea is largely a media fabrication.

It’s not that they don’t want to own things they just haven’t come to grips with the hard work it sometimes takes to do it.

Yep, 4 anecdotes do not make a trend.

It is also that they just don't have the means to do buy stuff yet. I was a minimalist too when I was 22. Everything I owned fit in my car. I was also broke as shit.

I think most young kids have to learn that you need to go to work to get things. I remember I was astounded when I was in law school that in a classroom with around 100 people the vast majority had never had a job of any kind. I had a job continually from the time I was 16 and had no idea that other kids somehow got through college without even a summer job.

Don't tell me what 20 - 25 year olds are doing, come back when they still don't want a house or car when they are 35 with 2 kids.


This. I’m almost 35, so on the front end of what is considered millennial. Sure there are some people that are being minimalist with the income but most are being minimalist because they don’t have the money. Do the math on 100k in student loans (not hard to do). Hell even the math on 50k in student loans. It’s a big hamper on wanting things. I would be minimalist too when you can’t afford anything major.

As one of the posters said, it’s a lot easier to act like you’re minimalist, when you’re broke and your making micro daily payments to Starbucks, uber, the scooter companies etc.

I work with a lot of people who are my age or a bit younger, it’s not that they don’t want things, it’s just very hard to afford major purchases. I live in the Denver area, a starter condo, in a decent area is 250-300k. When you’re paying 1500+ a month for an apartment, while paying off loans, it becomes very difficult to save up for the down payment.

Let’s see how minimalist this generation is when they hit 40-45 and they’re married with kids. Maybe it will stick but I think it’s unlikely for most.

Grant your close to the front, but do you not have any friends who have positive cash flow. Like I said I look at the sub 30 yr olds we have working here as engineers making good coin, little to no debt issues now, and they all seem to choose to spend money on having better experiences than having more things. I don't think its a minimalist movement, from talking to them. Its a different choice. I can buy the big house and all the crap or I can save more for an earlier retirement and go on some nice vacations, and buy my more expensive craft beer. They choose the experiences.

Trust me, I don’t disagree in the experiences part. There are a few of the guys that I work with that legitimately spend more on concert tickets in a year, maybe 6 months than I have in my life. Maybe 75 percent go out to lunch everyday or most days, Starbucks in the morning etc.

But I think the increased experiences stem from getting married later and having kids later. They want to get married or have kids later to have those experiences first. It’s very hard to do those things as soon as you have a kid or two and have to pay for day car or drive them around to activity’s etc. So I don’t see it as a choice to not buy a house and a bunch of crap as it is more that, the buy more stage of their life is just pushed further out than it has been. So they’re saying they want to spend money on experiences, which they do, because they haven’t reached the point where that other stuff is needed. I just don’t see it being very likely that these same people that are making good money, when they have a kid, are going to continue to live the same way. Maybe they will I don’t know, but that changes the dynamics so much that it’s hard to believe they will.

Now what I don’t see is, at least here, is although they are having these experiences, they aren’t lavish grand experiences. Let’s call it the nickel and diming experiences, that add up to a bunch of money over time but not a big one time expense. That’s where the cash flow portion comes in. Obvious it’s way different in Denver because of the cost of living but to have those major experiences it would take to long to save up because they don’t have that much available monthly. Which ties into where I was going with, how do you buy a house, when it could take 10 plus years to acquire the down payment. So people say they don’t want those big purchases, when in reality if they had the money available to shorten the time frame to make it a feasible goal, the goal would change. It’s like me saying I don’t want a Lamborghini because they are too expensive to buy and maintain. Trust me if I had an extra 10k a month laying around I’d have one in the garage. I would classify this under the “everybody lies” category.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Grant.Reuter wrote:
. It’s like me saying I don’t want a Lamborghini because they are too expensive to buy and maintain. Trust me if I had an extra 10k a month laying around I’d have one in the garage. I would classify this under the “everybody lies” category.

If you had enough to buy a Lamborghini, it would not be in your garage.. it would be with your Mechanic. lol

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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To me, it's some of both. It is now more acceptable to not own so much stuff as in the past it was used as a measure of success. If you didn't have a house and a few cars, then you weren't viewed as successful. Now the measure may have changed some where it's more based on experiences instead of material goods. But I recently read an article in Bloomberg that argued millennials aren't that much different than the prior generation in what they valued, they were just poorer. So they couldn't afford the house yet or multiple cars but when they started making more money, their consumption habits aren't that different.

Not sure how much of the debate is real but I know that corporations are paying close attention. I work in roles that require strategy and the shifts are always being discussed. I remember interviewing for a job at Aarons (rent to own) and they explained they were pivoting their strategy from focusing on people who couldn't afford to buy furniture outright to the model of "subscriptions". Exact same concept since it's a weekly payment but they were targeting millennials who didn't want to own stuff and maybe wanted to change furniture often or moved a lot. Not sure if it will work but it's the same model being used by car companies now from Cadillac to Porsche to Volvo. Focus seems to be on selling a solution instead of a product.

But to your point, someone will have to own all of this stuff and that may revert to corporations. So instead of selling a car to someone, they basically become manufacturer and a rental car agency. However, what happens when/if car sharing takes over? At that point, demand for autos should drop heavily. That in itself would be a huge shift but it impacts so many downstream things - auto repair shops would be doing more business since cars are being used more vs. being parked all the time. Also, the demand for gigantic parking decks should drop if there are less total cars out there being utilized more.

I think that jobs will just move into different areas. We've already seen the huge shift from manufacturing due to automation and efficiencies. Now the shift may go from retail to delivery or something. In an ownership model, there is a lot of friction in the buying and selling process. Going to a rental/subscription model, that friction shifts to someone else. If I buy a couch I have to visit a retail store and work with an associate. Then if I want a different one, I have to sell it or donate it and maybe transport it myself. In a subscription model, I would just pay a fee and if I changed my mind, someone would come and delivery a new one while taking the old one. Replace a sales associate with a delivery person and replace a showroom with more warehouse. No idea on net job gains or loss.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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The media can report all they want about minimalist trends but the real measure of that topic is one thing: self storage facilities.

I have seen no less than a dozen new self storage businesses open in our town over the last 12 months. Some are fancy, heated and air conditioned spaces while others are like outdoor garages with nothing more than a roll up door, cinderblock walls with a bare bulb light and single outlet. Hundreds of units, some small but most about the size of a one car garage.

If we are becoming a minimalist society, why do we need so much paid for space to store our stuff?

We live in an up and coming part of the country, with lots of engineers, computer specialists and high tech work (every thing from rockets to genetic research). We have the same forces as any other city, lots of young people demanding non-chain restaurants and city spaces for recreation along with the politicians demanding tax increases to pay for those amenities. I bet that most other cities are seeing the same growth in self storage facilities, so our situation is not that unusual.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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Late to this thread and I haven't read the other comments but I work in CRE so here's my take:

Millenials don't consume less contrary to popular opinion. I've actually seen data that shows that, at this point in their lifecycle, they consume more than any other generation. They just don't consume much "stuff". They spend endlessly on "experiences". They spend money on eating out, fitness classes, vacations, concerts, "interactive theater" in all of its incarnations, festivals of all sorts. Spend spend spend.

If you're a clothing retailer they certainly won't save you. Millenials, depending on their income, will either buy their clothes from discount big boxes, buy online, or buy from resale shops. That last category has absolutely exploded in the last three years. There are a shocking number of what I would call "high end" resale shops opening up and they're rather sophisticated in how they handle their inventory. You won't see them at a mall, or an outlet mall, or in a big box "power center" but they're savvy about finding cheap space, buying their inventory on the cheap, curating what they sell, and making the whole experience feel surprisingly high-end.

With regards to the "renter" lifestyle, yes that's a thing. The desire to own a home for Millenials is generally lower than generations before them and my best friend who works in RRE has told me there's a very clear trend of millennial home buyers buying smaller homes when you control for factors like income. However they share in common the impetus to buy a home: once they get married and decide to have kids they realize a small, cramped apartment is a sub-optimal environment for a family.

Things like the car ownership model, especially in dense urban areas, are definitely changing. Of the twenty or so friends and acquaintances I can think of living between New York and Chicago I can only think of two that own a car (mind you all of them are reasonably successful, they could all afford a car if they felt one made sense). Taxis, public transit, and uber just make more sense. One of my best friends who lives near me in suburban Orlando Florida has actually seriously considered jettisoning his car. He's a Disney exec and 5-6 days per week he has a very consistent routine with a commute to work and a commute home. He's told me he's done the math and that without valuing his time at all it's very close to break-even for him to uber to work and back home every day.

So, yeah, car ownership is definitely changing. Terrible business to be in (car manufacturing, sales, etc.). I don't know when the tipping point will be... tomorrow, next year, five years... but I can say with confidence it will be in the next decade.

Back to how consumer habits are affecting commercial retail, I can tell you we have waaaayyyy too much capacity here in the U.S. Landlords with capital are reconfiguring their properties and they'll survive. Landlords (individuals, REITs, etc.) who are highly leveraged won't survive the next decade and their properties will simply atrophy. In my experience, once a property drops below 75% occupancy it's basically a guaranteed downward spiral unless the landlord has the capital to give significant rent abatement, TI concessions, etc. Once a bank forecloses on a property there's a good chance (I'd say 75%) that property is permanently doomed. Once the bank has control of the property it will only get worse, they don't get it off their books quick enough, and by the time someone buys it the property usually needs to be completely redeveloped.... and that's a very hard business.

Commercial Real Estate will take a long time to shake out. By my estimate, the U.S. needs to lose about half of its square footage over the next decade but that's going to vary a lot by state. Somewhere with a population boom like Florida probably only needs to see its square footage fall by ~20%. States like NY or IL probably need to see their square footage reduced by 60% or more. The buildings don't disappear overnight however. Landlords will fight to keep properties relevant and once a property is in receivership it can sit in a slow state of decline for years. It will probably take 15+ years for the CRE market in the U.S. to approach some semblance of equilibrium.

Some of the retailers that have survived thus far I think will remain as survivors. Best Buy is a good example (and I'd argue they actually have Amazon on the back foot on electronics) and so is Wal-Mart. IMO, the demise of conventional grocers is much exaggerated. I think you'll see an interesting trend with banks in the coming years. Yes, they'll close a lot of their existing branches. Honestly, their existing branches fit an archaic model. However most banks have figured out that they *need* a physical presence. They lose ground to competitors in markets where they don't have a physical branch but their competitors do. I think you'll see banks move from 4,500sf freestanding branches with three drive through lanes to 1,500sf end cap spaces with a single drive through or a similar sized inline space with an ATM in the parking lot.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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DavHamm wrote:
No I am not giving this a free range future, but want to play out a thought experiment / consequences of a behavior.

It seems the Millennials and younger have less desire to own things. This to me is going to have a huge impact to the future of the US which has really been driven by the everyone since the 40's desire to have more, buy more .. get more stuff, get a bigger house to put more stuff in, get a storage facility to put more stuff in... We see they don't want cars, renting a dwelling is fine, put pics on the cloud, rather have an mp3 than a cd ...

The down turn of the Auto Industry has already been projected by this phenomena but I think it will have bigger wider hit than that but can't really wrap my head around all the areas and the implications.

So they want to rent.. but someone has to own the property whats that mean.

They buy less, less need for stores, less need for employees, less demand for retail space?

Not sure why this line of thinking has me both fascinated and flummoxed but I cant seem to get it out of my head.

Kids will be the differentiator. Millennials are marrying later and having kids later. When that happens, you need stuff.

You can't Uber with a car seat.

You need a room for the baby.

It all changes when you have kids.
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Re: Lets see if what the brains of the Lavender room see for the future... [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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. They choose the experiences.

Some of us have been doing that for the past 30 years.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com
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