Seems to me more like riding Dakar with no helmet/gear, or worse. 19 motorcycle fatalities at Dakar since '79 - probably about 4000 attempts. I seriously doubt Honnold could repeat his feat anywhere near the equivalent 210 times before he peeled. Even he would probably put the over/under at around 5 tries. Not that he would actually try that - but there's at least an order of magnitude difference in the odds of death and probably closer to two.

There's no way Honnold thought there was a 1 in 5 chance he would fall. He would never attempt to free solo a wall he thought there was a 20% chance he'd die. I would guess he saw the risk as more like 2% or 1 in 50.

He was very upset at himself for have a sketchy moment on Half Dome where some doubt crept in. For El Cap he was very confident in every step.

I don't think he thought there was a 1-5 chance he'd die...rather that he would probably would say "nope" to the idea of doing what he did even that many additional times, because eventually something is going to go wrong. I agree he probably thought it was ~1/50, but a normal distribution for even 1/50 generalized odds has plenty of plummeting at fewer tries.

Ah, I see what you're saying. Certainly there are massive diminishing returns after doing it once, especially when you are the first person to free solo a route.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYbwZQ-QnMY

Dyno around 1:00

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

How did it a work put for dan

Just watched it.

Irrespective of how difficult the boulder problem was, the way the exposure on the arrete at the top was filmed freaked me out.

The whole thing was amazing

Quoted for posterity.

This would be an autocorrect fail. I can't even guess what it was supposed to be - and I have to decipher my husband's texts all the time.

Well that's the irony. Free soloing worked out great, he died on a roped climb when a rope overheated and melted.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

As well as Dawn Wall, which was mentioned earlier, I would recommend watching "Line Across the Sky" free online too. 2 x 20 minutes parts.

Honnald's first effort at true alpine climbing...

Work out for Dan....... Osman

And Potter died on a jump, mcconkey when a shitty binding failed to release for a ski base, the list is endless

I don't think I fear exposure, but it freaked me out because of the perspective and lack of ropes

I've paraglided off cliffs at ~2700 feet and that didn't phase me, but the perspective on the exposed part at the top was frightening.

Ridiculous, the absolute confidence in his feet, friction, its just amazing and simply an unimaginable physical feat with such high consequences

Is that the Patagonia trip?

Yes. On the RedBull website I think

Just saw Dawn Wall, holy crow, just excellent

besides Barkley and Icarus, any other sports docs on Netflix? Don't much care about which sport, just like the good stories.

The Armstrong interview with honnold is fantastic

Just found it, and it's really interesting

This is amazing. Free climbed El Cap, abseiled El Cap, Jumar's el cap in 20 hours..........

Brits are a bit eccentric

Edit to add. When he is on pitch 20 you see what you don't see honnold doing on the monster off width and it's ridiculous thinking about doing that without a rope

I think he has said he fell on the crux once in about 30 attempts. There is an interview where he mentioned the falls.

Those odds change when you have no rope........ Or the odds don't but everything is ratcheted up a little